Longi(SH:601012) Di Yi Cai Jing·2025-04-30 10:27Core Viewpoint - The photovoltaic industry has entered a phase of slow growth, with significant uncertainties for market development in 2025, and the potential for no incremental new installations in that year [1] Company Performance - In 2024, the company reported revenue of 82.58 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 36.23%, and a net loss of 8.62 billion yuan, compared to a net profit of 10.75 billion yuan in the previous year [3] - For Q1 2025, the company recorded a net loss of 1.436 billion yuan, an improvement of 38.89% compared to a loss of 2.35 billion yuan in the same period last year [3] - The decline in performance is attributed to an imbalance in supply and demand, insufficient operating rates, and a continuous drop in photovoltaic product prices, alongside rapid technological iterations leading to asset impairments [3] Industry Trends - In 2024, the production of polysilicon, silicon wafers, batteries, and modules increased by over 10% year-on-year, while export volumes for photovoltaic batteries and modules grew by over 46% and 12%, respectively [3] - Despite the increase in production, prices across the industry have significantly declined, with polysilicon prices dropping over 39%, silicon wafer prices over 50%, and battery and module prices around 30% [3] Shipment and Production Outlook - The company achieved silicon wafer shipments of 108.46 GW in 2024, with external sales of 46.55 GW, and battery module shipments of 82.32 GW [4] - For 2025, the company expects to achieve silicon wafer shipments of 120 GW and battery module shipments between 80 GW and 90 GW, with BC module shipments expected to exceed 25% of total shipments [4] Technological Developments - The manufacturing cost difference between BC and TOPCon technologies has been reduced to 0.05 yuan per watt, with expectations for further cost reductions through efficiency improvements and scale effects [5] Market and Policy Impact - The company is closely monitoring changes in U.S. trade policies, particularly the impact of the removal of tariff exemptions for Southeast Asian solar components and the ongoing "double anti" investigations [5][6] - The company's investment in Vietnam, aimed at serving the U.S. market, has faced challenges due to these policy changes, leading to significant fixed asset impairments [6] Future Market Expectations - The company anticipates that the global photovoltaic demand will remain stable or see slight growth in 2025, with a return to growth expected by 2026, although at a reduced rate of around 10% compared to previous years' growth rates of 40% to 50% [6]