周观点1019：储锂风景气延续，光伏 及AIDC迎边际催化 长江证券研究所电力设备与新能源研究小组 2025-10-20 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 证券研究报告 • 证券研究报告 • 评级 看好 维持 分析师及联系人 分析师 邬博华 分析师 曹海花 分析师 司鸿历 分析师 叶之楠 SAC执业证书编号：S0490514040001 SAC执业证书编号：S0490522030001 SAC执业证书编号：S0490520080002 SAC执业证书编号：S0490520090003 SFC执业证书编号：BQK482 SFC执业证书编号：BVD284 分析师 袁澎 SAC执业证书编号：S0490524010001 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 2 00 本周电新板块行情回顾 板块重要事件回顾与展望 00 CJ电新指数本周下跌5.31%，光伏板块因反内卷预期强化跌幅相对较小，其他电源和电机分别因AIDC和人形机器人跌幅较大，风电因前期涨幅较大本周回调。 图：本周电新板块行情回顾 CJ电新指数 光伏 储能 锂电 风电 电力设备 其他电源 电机 -10 ...

电力设备行业资金流出榜 沪指10月20日上涨0.63%，申万所属行业中，今日上涨的有26个，涨幅居前的行业为通信、煤炭，涨幅分别为3.21%、3.04%。电力设备行业位居今日涨幅榜第三。跌幅居前的行业为有色金属 资金面上看，两市主力资金全天净流出46.01亿元，今日有12个行业主力资金净流入，通信行业主力资金净流入规模居首，该行业今日上涨3.21%，全天净流入资金43.97亿元，其次是煤炭行业 主力资金净流出的行业有19个，有色金属行业主力资金净流出规模居首，全天净流出资金46.99亿元，其次是计算机行业，净流出资金为23.90亿元，净流出资金较多的还有汽车、国防军工、非 电力设备行业今日上涨1.54%，全天主力资金净流出1.88亿元，该行业所属的个股共363只，今日上涨的有288只，涨停的有7只；下跌的有75只。以资金流向数据进行统计，该行业资金净流入 电力设备行业资金流入榜 ...

证券之星消息，10月20日光伏设备板块较上一交易日下跌0.01%，隆基绿能领跌。当日上证指数报收于 3863.89，上涨0.63%。深证成指报收于12813.21，上涨0.98%。光伏设备板块个股涨跌见下表： | 代码 | 名称 | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量(手) | 成交额(元) | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 300080 | 易成新能 | 5.14 | 5.54% | 56.38万 | | 2.84亿 | | 688680 | 海优新材 | 43.82 | 4.96% | 3.37万 | | 1.45亿 | | 688556 | 高测股份 | 11.69 | 4.66% | 39.46万 | | 4.61亿 | | 301278 | 快可电子 | 34.98 | 3.92% | 1.67万 | | 5764.52万 | | 300051 | 斑→枝 | 6.42 | 3.72% | 10.89万 | | 6908.21万 | | 300316 | 晶盛机电 | 39.05 | 3.55% | 31.29万 | | 12.16亿 | ...

Investment Rating - Industry Investment Rating: Overweight [1] Core Views - The price of large storage battery cells continues to rise, indicating strong demand in the energy storage sector. The domestic independent energy storage market is expected to grow due to supportive policies [5][30]. - The domestic offshore wind power sector remains in a high-growth phase, with significant projects such as the 500MW offshore wind project in Hainan officially starting construction [4][21]. - The photovoltaic industry shows stable pricing across the supply chain, with strong overseas demand supporting battery prices [3][14]. Summary by Sections Photovoltaics - The price of silicon wafers and battery cells continues to rise, while module prices remain stable. Strong overseas market demand is a key driver for the price trends [3][14]. - The Qinghai 136 document has initiated bidding for renewable energy projects, with a total mechanism electricity scale of 22.41 billion kWh [14][15]. - GCL-Poly's third-quarter profit reached 960 million yuan, showcasing resilience in a competitive environment [16]. Wind Power - The domestic offshore wind power sector is experiencing high growth, with significant projects like the 500MW offshore wind project in Yangjiang receiving preliminary approval [4][20]. - The Zhejiang offshore wind project has awarded contracts for ±500kV DC submarine and land cables, indicating ongoing investment in infrastructure [20]. Energy Storage - The average price of large storage battery cells has risen to 0.308 yuan/Wh, reflecting strong demand and supply dynamics [25][30]. - In September, the domestic energy storage market saw a significant increase in new installations, with a total of 3.08GW/9.17GWh added, marking a year-on-year growth of 205% in power and 171% in capacity [26]. - The PJM region in the U.S. faces urgent energy storage needs, requiring the deployment of 16-23GW of storage systems over the next 7 to 15 years to meet increasing load demands [27][29]. Hydrogen Energy - The green methanol project is set to receive national subsidies, with companies like Fuan Energy investing in significant production capacity [31][39]. - The hydrogen energy sector is experiencing favorable development trends, with national support for new technologies and financing becoming more accessible [39]. Electric Grid Equipment - NVIDIA's release of the 800V DC white paper highlights the need for high-voltage direct current solutions in data centers, driven by increased power density and load variability [40]. - Investment opportunities in the electric grid sector include companies involved in high-voltage direct current technology and related equipment [41]. Electric Vehicles - The government has launched a three-year plan to double charging facilities, aiming for 28 million nationwide by the end of 2027 [42][45]. - The heavy-duty truck market has seen a nearly 80% year-on-year increase in sales, indicating strong demand and market recovery [45]. Humanoid Robots - A strategic partnership between Zhaofeng and German company Neura has been established, focusing on humanoid robot technology and significant order potential [47][49]. - The humanoid robot sector is entering a phase of small-batch production, with investment opportunities in companies with new technologies and strong order visibility [50].

Investment Rating - Maintain "Buy" rating for the industry [6] Core Insights - The power equipment industry is transitioning from "ultra-low price competition" to "structural correction," with significant price increases expected due to changes in export tax policies and supply-side reforms [16][17] - The report highlights three key areas of focus: supply-side reform leading to price increases, long-term growth opportunities from new technologies, and industrialization opportunities from perovskite solar cells [17] Summary by Sections 1. New Energy Generation 1.1 Photovoltaics - The photovoltaic industry is experiencing a critical shift, with expected global component price increases of approximately 9% starting Q4 2025 due to the cancellation of VAT rebates on solar cell exports [16][17] - Domestic component prices have entered an upward trend since July 2025, with N-type component average prices rising by about 3.6% from July to September 2025 [16][17] 1.2 Wind Power & Grid - A new VAT policy for offshore wind power will be implemented from November 2025, allowing a 50% VAT rebate on self-produced electricity, which is expected to accelerate offshore wind development [18][19] - The first project under Jiangsu's 14th Five-Year Plan for offshore wind has been approved, indicating a boost in offshore wind capacity [18][19] 1.3 Hydrogen & Energy Storage - Sinopec's first green hydrogen ammonia synthesis project has been initiated, with a planned hydrogen production capacity of 20,000 tons/year and ammonia production of at least 100,000 tons/year [23] - Energy storage project bidding prices for October 2025 range from 0.4118 to 0.6 CNY/Wh, indicating a competitive market [24][30] 2. New Energy Vehicles - The National Development and Reform Commission has issued a plan to double the charging infrastructure by 2027, aiming to build 28 million charging facilities to support over 80 million new energy vehicles [35][36] - The plan includes enhancing urban rapid charging networks and expanding charging facilities in rural areas [35][36]

从近期政策看，比如9月份，工信部、市场监管总局印发《电子信息制造业2025-2026年稳增长行动方案》，指出在破除"内卷式"竞争中实现光伏等领域高质 量发展；国家标准《硅多晶和锗单位产品能源消耗限额》（征求意见稿）发布，不符合3级标准的企业将被限期整改，逾期未改或整改后未符合2级标准的企 业将被关停。 在政策干预下，"反内卷"成效显著，行业供需关系持续改善，光伏产业链价格有所走高，9月多晶硅料、硅片、电池和光伏组件价格均出现上涨，其中多晶 硅于今年6月至今主连期货价格涨超50%。不过多晶硅去产能任务依旧艰巨，截至9月底，国内在产多晶硅企业数量维持在10家，整体开工率保持相对低位。 2025年6月底以来，围绕光伏行业"反内卷"顶层信号密集释放，港A股光伏板块也开始了持续性的反弹，而近期有媒体称国家相关部门即将发布"关于加强光 伏产能调控的通知"，再度点燃板块投资热情。 智通财经APP了解到，10月14日，相关主管部门或将发布一份加强光伏产能调控的通知文件不胫而走，推动光伏产业从"野蛮生长"迈向"高质量突围"。受此 影响A股光伏产业链掀起放量涨停潮，不过以新特能源（01799）为代表的港股标的表现则相对平淡，之后 ...

隆基绿能跌超3%，成交额超57亿元。 ...

截至2025年10月17日 11:17，中证光伏产业指数(931151)下跌4.33%。成分股方面，阳光电源(300274)领 跌8.10%，科士达(002518)下跌7.84%，阿特斯(688472)下跌7.49%，固德威(688390)下跌6.55%，迈为股 份(300751)下跌6.31%。光伏ETF基金(516180)下跌4.53%，最新报价0.76元。拉长时间看，截至2025年 10月16日，光伏ETF基金近2周累计上涨1.27%。 行业或进入"反内卷"密集催化期，10月重点关注：（1）四中全会将于10月20-23日召开，会议将审 议"十五五"规划建议。多家券商宏观团队预测，"反内卷"或成为"十五五"重要内容，关注可能的政策表 态。（2）临近10月中下旬，上市公司三季报将迎来密集披露。7月"反内卷"加码以来，产业链价格均有 明显上涨，特别是硅料环节，相关公司三季度业绩或有明显改善。（3）产能兼并重组进展，及产业链 价格变化。 震荡市下光伏低估值优势凸显。中证光伏产业指数估值和股价位置不高，震荡市环境下低估值优势将凸 显，短期政策催化密集，或带来上涨机会。中期维度，行业"反内卷"持续稳步推进，景气触底 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" [2][45] Core Viewpoints - As of October 16, 2025, the power equipment industry has seen a decline of 2.84% over the past two weeks, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 2.36 percentage points, ranking 26th among 31 industries [4][11] - The cumulative installed capacity of new energy storage in China is expected to reach over 180GW by 2027 and 300GW by 2030, with the industry chain and supply chain output value projected to reach 2-3 trillion yuan by 2030 [34][39] - The global energy storage market is anticipated to maintain strong growth, with a cumulative installed capacity of approximately 730GW/1950GWh by the end of 2030 [34][39] Summary by Sections Market Review - The power equipment sector has increased by 39.62% year-to-date, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 22.25 percentage points, ranking 4th among 31 industries [4][11] - The wind power equipment sector increased by 0.07%, the photovoltaic equipment sector by 1.14%, and the grid equipment sector by 5.76% in the last two weeks [16][17] Valuation and Industry Data - As of October 16, 2025, the price-to-earnings (PE) ratio for the power equipment sector is 34.67 times, with sub-sectors showing varying PE ratios: electric motors at 62.87 times, photovoltaic equipment at 26.89 times, and battery sector at 35.51 times [22][23] Industry News - In the first nine months of 2025, China's new energy storage overseas orders totaled 214.7GWh, a year-on-year increase of 131.75%, with over 30GWh in September alone [34][39] - The National Energy Administration has emphasized the importance of user-side network security management to prevent power outages caused by user-side issues [34][35] Company Announcements - Several companies reported significant changes in net profit for the first three quarters of 2025, with notable increases for companies like Jinko Technology and Tongda Co., while others like Shida Shenghua reported substantial losses [36][37] Weekly Perspective on Power Equipment Sector - The report suggests focusing on leading storage companies benefiting from the booming storage industry, emphasizing technological and scale advantages [39][40]

最近A股跟翻书似的，前一天还因为美股大跌慌得睡不着，后一天光伏就直接掀桌子——隆基绿能差点涨停，天合光能冲了15%，晶科能源也涨超10%，把 不少人看懵了：这光伏，是真的熬出头反转了？ 很多人问我，隆基和通威，这俩巨头谁更能打？别急，咱们先理清家底。通威是上游硅料龙头，占了全球四分之一市场，现在硅料涨价，它是最先吃到肉 的。上半年通威亏了快50亿，就因为硅料跌穿成本线，现在三季度硅料涨起来，据说净利润能到11-18亿，10月25号出三季报，这数得重点看。 再看隆基，它是中游硅片、组件的老大。有人说上游涨价对它是利空，其实不然。隆基有个"泰睿硅片技术"，薄片化+大尺寸，硅耗比别人低，非硅成本做 到行业最低，能抵消不少硅料涨价的压力。而且它跟通威绑得紧，锁定了硅料供应，还能分点涨价的收益。更重要的是，落后产能一淘汰，像那些老旧的 PERC产线要退出，隆基这种技术领先的，市场份额只会越来越大。它上半年亏了25亿，但比去年少亏一半，费用砍了不少，现金流也好多了，三季度亏损 估计还能收窄，10月31号的三季报也得盯紧。 最后给大家一个中长线的实在建议：别追着短期涨势瞎冲。光伏这波不是炒概念，是"反内卷"真刀真枪出效果了 ...