SUN PAPER(SZ:002078) Xin Lang Cai Jing·2025-04-30 10:46Core Viewpoint - The company reported Q1 2025 performance with revenue of 9.898 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 2.82%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 0.886 billion yuan, down 7.32%, exceeding market expectations mainly due to price increases in cultural paper and cost control [1] Financial Performance - Q1 2025 paper profit recovery: Average prices for double glue paper, copper plate paper, and box board paper increased by 122, 211, and 65 yuan per ton respectively compared to the previous quarter, while inventory pulp costs declined, indicating a recovery in paper profit, particularly in cultural paper [1] - Stable external pulp sales: The company's external pulp capacity remained stable at 1.44 million tons for 2023-2024, primarily serving the group with stable consumption and minimal profit fluctuations [1] - High capital expenditure: Operating cash flow for Q1 2025 was 0.124 billion yuan, down 79% year-on-year, with capital expenditure at 1.97 billion yuan as the Guangxi base is in a peak expansion phase; the debt-to-asset ratio stands at 46% [1] Development Trends - Optimistic outlook for Q2 2025 performance: As of April 23, 2025, average prices for double glue paper and copper plate paper were 5,775 and 6,071 yuan per ton, showing a slight decrease and increase respectively compared to Q1 2025; the cultural paper market is in a traditional peak season, but price increases may be limited due to rapid declines in pulp prices [2] - Expected completion of dissolving pulp relocation in May, which is anticipated to leverage regional advantages in Guangxi, further reducing costs and enhancing production and sales levels [2] Strategic Initiatives - Three major bases working in synergy: The Laos base is focused on rapid afforestation, aiming to add over 10,000 hectares annually; the Guangxi base is expected to complete projects by the end of 2025, producing 1 million tons of high-end packaging paper and 150,000 tons of household paper; the Shandong base plans to trial production of 37,000 tons of specialty paper by April 2025 [3] - Long-term cost advantages are expected to be realized through overseas land reserves, with potential for resource-based asset revaluation [3] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company maintains its profit forecast, with current prices corresponding to P/E ratios of 12.5x and 11.7x for 2025-2026; the target price remains at 18 yuan, implying a 27% upside potential based on P/E ratios of 16x and 15x for the same period [4]