GUJING(SZ:000596) Xi Niu Cai Jing·2025-04-30 11:22Core Viewpoint - Gujinggongjiu reported a dual growth in revenue and net profit for 2024, achieving operating income of 23.578 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 16.41%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 5.517 billion yuan, up 20.22% year-on-year, although it fell short of its targets for revenue and profit [2] Group 1: Financial Performance - In 2024, Gujinggongjiu's revenue reached 23.578 billion yuan, marking a 16.41% increase year-on-year [2] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 5.517 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 20.22% [2] - The company did not meet its initial targets of 24.45 billion yuan in revenue and 7.95 billion yuan in profit [2] Group 2: Quarterly Trends - The company's growth rate showed a declining trend throughout the quarters, with a 1.2% year-on-year decline in net profit in Q4 2024, marking the first negative growth in recent years [4] - The decline in performance is attributed to the overall destocking cycle in the liquor industry, leading Gujinggongjiu to control inventory to stabilize channel prices [4] Group 3: Market Strategy and Competition - The core product "Gu20" saw its terminal price drop below 500 yuan per bottle, which raised concerns about profitability as it accounts for nearly 30% of the company's revenue [4] - The company’s national strategy remains a key issue, with the Central China region contributing 20.151 billion yuan in revenue, accounting for 85% of total revenue, while growth in North and South China was significantly lower [4] - Competitors like Shanxi Fenjiu have achieved faster national expansion through differentiated strategies, while Gujinggongjiu still relies on traditional large merchant models, indicating weaker channel control [4] Group 4: Cost and Dividend Policy - High sales expenses have also impacted Gujinggongjiu's profits, with sales expenses reaching 4.823 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2024, accounting for 25.29% of revenue, which is significantly higher than peers like Moutai and Wuliangye [4] - The company declared a total dividend of 2.643 billion yuan in 2024, with a payout ratio of 47.91%, the highest in its history, which boosted investor confidence but raised concerns about cash flow sustainability for national expansion [4] Group 5: Future Outlook - In 2025, the liquor industry is expected to remain in a phase of stock competition, and Gujinggongjiu's ability to maintain its domestic market while breaking through barriers in external markets will be crucial for achieving its goal of reaching 30 billion yuan [5] - The Q1 2025 report showed revenue of 9.146 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.38%, and net profit of 2.33 billion yuan, up 12.78%, indicating a slowdown compared to 2024 [5]