研究报告 Research Report 3 Mar 2026 中国必需消费 China (A-share) Staples 中国必选消费 26 年 3 月投资观点：春播正当时 It's the Prime Time for Spring Planting [Table_yemei1] 观点聚焦 Investment Focus | [Table_Info] | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 股票名称 | 评级 | 股票名称 | 评级 | | 贵州茅台 | Outperform 古井贡酒 | | Outperform | | 贵州茅台 | Outperform 今世缘 | | Outperform | | 五粮液 | Outperform 燕京啤酒 | | Outperform | | 五粮液 | Outperform 安琪酵母 | | Outperform | | 海天味业 | Outperform 安井食品 | | Outperform | | 海天味业 | Outperform 安井食品 | | Outperform | | 山西汾酒 | Outperform 迎驾 ...

研究报告 Research Report 3 Mar 2026 中国必需消费 China (A-share) Staples 中国必选消费 26 年 3 月投资观点：春播正当时 It's the Prime Time for Spring Planting [Table_yemei1] 观点聚焦 Investment Focus | [Table_Info] | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 股票名称 | 评级 | 股票名称 | 评级 | | 贵州茅台 | Outperform 古井贡酒 | | Outperform | | 贵州茅台 | Outperform 今世缘 | | Outperform | | 五粮液 | Outperform 燕京啤酒 | | Outperform | | 五粮液 | Outperform 安琪酵母 | | Outperform | | 海天味业 | Outperform 安井食品 | | Outperform | | 海天味业 | Outperform 安井食品 | | Outperform | | 山西汾酒 | Outperform 迎驾 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the essential consumer goods sector in China is "Outperform" for multiple companies including Guizhou Moutai, Wuliangye, and Yili [1]. Core Insights - In February 2026, five out of eight tracked essential consumer goods sectors showed positive growth, while two experienced negative growth and one remained flat. The sectors with growth included frozen food, condiments, beer, catering, and soft drinks, while premium and above baijiu and dairy products saw declines. The improvement in data is attributed to the extended Spring Festival holiday and increased travel enthusiasm, which boosted demand for catering and related supply chain products [3][18]. Summary by Sector Baijiu Sector - **Premium and Above Baijiu**: Revenue reached RMB 44.0 billion in February, down 14.6% year-on-year. Cumulative revenue for January-February was RMB 91.0 billion, a decrease of 14.2% year-on-year. The sector faced pressure on both volume and price due to reliance on business consumption and numerous brands affecting price control [4][19]. - **Mass-Market and Below Baijiu**: Revenue was RMB 17.4 billion in February, flat year-on-year. Cumulative revenue for January-February was RMB 40.3 billion, down 1.7% year-on-year. The prices of mass-market baijiu showed signs of stabilization, attributed to its inelastic demand and balanced producer-distributor relationships [20]. Beer Sector - Revenue in the beer sector was RMB 15.2 billion in February, up 5.6% year-on-year. Cumulative revenue for January-February was RMB 32.2 billion, down 1.5% year-on-year. The sector benefited from seasonal factors and increased demand in lower-tier markets, with the RMB 8-10 price segment driving revenue growth [21]. Condiments Sector - Revenue in the condiments sector was RMB 41.5 billion in February, up 5.6% year-on-year, marking the third consecutive month of growth. Cumulative revenue for January-February was RMB 88.4 billion, up 4.5% year-on-year. The recovery in catering channels and increased inventory replenishment contributed to this growth [22]. Dairy Products Sector - Revenue in the dairy sector was RMB 41.5 billion in February, down 1.2% year-on-year. Cumulative revenue for January-February was RMB 85.0 billion, flat year-on-year. Despite ongoing pressure, there was a noticeable recovery in catering consumption and gifting needs during the Spring Festival [23]. Frozen Food Sector - Revenue in the frozen food sector was RMB 14.0 billion in February, up 8.9% year-on-year, also marking the third consecutive month of growth. Cumulative revenue for January-February was RMB 29.0 billion, up 8.5% year-on-year. The sector's performance was supported by Spring Festival stockpiling and increased demand from small B-end clients [24]. Soft Drinks Sector - Revenue in the soft drinks sector was RMB 49.8 billion in February, up 2.3% year-on-year. Cumulative revenue for January-February was RMB 146.0 billion, up 1.5% year-on-year. The sector faced intensifying market competition, reflected in the discount rates for products [26]. Catering Sector - Revenue in the catering sector was RMB 14.0 billion in February, up 4.9% year-on-year, achieving its third consecutive month of growth. Cumulative revenue for January-February was RMB 30.2 billion, up 3.6% year-on-year. The sector benefited from the extended Spring Festival holiday, although profitability remained under pressure [27].

投资建议 白酒：春节旺销窗口收官，结合渠道反馈，我们认为春节白酒动销整体符合市场预期，预计全渠道动销量同比下滑 10~15%。其中，略超预期的反馈在于：1.节前&节内飞天茅台批价表现相对不错、未有显性回落；2.部分区域节内大众 价位产品有零星终端补货行为，当然这也与近年来终端小批量、高频次进货习惯相关，目的是规避资金占用和存货跌 价风险，但仍反映一定的动销韧性。 从节后首周反馈来看，行业价盘整体趋稳、略好于节前市场预期，目前原箱飞天茅台批价约 1690 元、环比小幅回落。 我们认为当前已经处于行业价盘筑底窗口，酒企普遍在发力去库存、春节反馈已可见一斑。本身春节飞天茅台超预期 的动销表现已进一步维稳了渠道对行业景气度的预期、修复了渠道库存容忍阈值，间接舒缓了行业秩序压力。 我们看好当前白酒板块配置价值、低预期下胜率可观，预期先行、节后亦具备自上而下催化，例如近期上海发布《关 于进一步优化调整本市房地产政策的通知》，进一步调减住房限购政策、优化住房公积金贷款政策等。中期维度伴随 "反内卷"政策持续落地、企业 ROE 有望改善，并传导至企业招待等支出提升、居民收入预期改善，拐点逐步临近。 配置方向建议：1）品牌力突 ...

Core Insights - The Chinese white liquor market is experiencing a price adjustment, with the average retail price of the top ten products dropping to 9,166 yuan, a decrease of 10 yuan from the previous day, marking a new low since early February [1][6][7] - The market shows a mixed performance with four products increasing in price, five decreasing, and one remaining stable, indicating a structural adjustment rather than a uniform market trend [1][7] Price Movements - The price of Feitian Moutai increased by 6 yuan per bottle, supported by solid demand and tight supply [1][7] - Other products that saw price increases include Gujing Gong 20 (up 3 yuan) and Wuliangye Pu 58 (up 1 yuan) [1][7] - Notable price decreases include Qinghua Lang (down 10 yuan), Yanghe Dream Blue M6+ (down 5 yuan), and several others down by 2 yuan [1][7][10] Market Analysis - Data collection for the price report comes from approximately 200 points across various regions, including designated distributors and e-commerce platforms, ensuring a comprehensive and objective view of the market [2][8] - The market is expected to see a structural recovery during the 2026 Spring Festival, particularly for sauce-flavored and budget-friendly liquors, with a notable increase in sales for high-end products like Moutai [2][8] - Despite some positive indicators, the industry is still facing weak demand, with the impact of reduced government and business banquets not fully dissipated [2][8]

Core Insights - The Chinese white liquor market is experiencing a price adjustment, with the average retail price of the top ten products dropping to 9,166 yuan, a decrease of 10 yuan from the previous day, marking a new low since early February [1] - The market shows a mixed performance with four products increasing in price, five decreasing, and one remaining stable, indicating a structural adjustment rather than a uniform trend [1] Price Movements - Among the products that increased in price, Feitian Moutai rose by 6 yuan per bottle, supported by solid demand and tight supply [1][3] - Other products with price increases include Gujing Gonggu 20, which went up by 3 yuan, and Wuliangye Pu 58 and Shuijing Jianan Chun, both of which saw a slight increase of 1 yuan [1] - Conversely, products that decreased in price include Qinghua Lang, which fell by 10 yuan, and Yanghe Dream Blue M6+, which decreased by 5 yuan [1][4] - The price of the stable product, Jingpin Moutai, remains at 2,419 yuan per bottle, showing resilience in its pricing [1] Market Dynamics - The overall market is characterized by a continued differentiation among products, with core products showing resilience while others face downward pressure [1] - The data is sourced from approximately 200 collection points across major regions, including designated distributors, social distributors, mainstream e-commerce platforms, and retail outlets [4]

Core Insights - The article highlights the diverse landscape of China's liquor market, particularly focusing on the consumption patterns of liquor during the Spring Festival in different provinces, namely Anhui, Henan, and Shandong [1] Anhui Market - Anhui's liquor market is dominated by local brands such as Gujinggongjiu and Kouzi Jiao, which maintain a strong presence and reputation [3][4] - The market is projected to reach approximately 35 billion yuan by 2025, positioning it as a key player in the second tier of China's liquor market [6] - Gujinggongjiu is recognized as the most popular brand among local consumers, with various price points catering to different segments [6][20] - The local preference for Gujinggongjiu and Kouzi Jiao reflects a strong cultural attachment to homegrown brands [9][11] Henan Market - In Henan, high-end brands like Moutai and Wuliangye dominate the market, while local brands such as Dukang and Yangshao are preferred for everyday gifting [23][24] - The market shows a clear distinction between high-end and local brands, with consumers often choosing based on the gifting context [24][26] - The presence of high-end liquor is more about social status, while local brands are seen as practical choices for regular gifting [24][26] Shandong Market - Shandong's liquor culture favors low-alcohol beverages, with brands like Luzhou Laojiao and Wuliangye leading the market [27][30] - Local brands struggle due to past quality issues, leading consumers to prefer established brands from other regions [30][31] - The cultural emphasis on low-alcohol consumption aligns with the region's social drinking customs, where moderation is valued [32][33] - The shift towards low-alcohol options is also influenced by health consciousness among consumers [33]

古井贡酒携手总台春晚11年，彰显"大国品牌"定力。 | 作者 | | 白猫 | | --- | --- | --- | | 编辑 | | 小白 | 除夕守岁，是中国人情感回归的集中表达。而最具代表的春节联欢晚会，更是中国经济跳动的一面真 实镜像。 如果把春晚看作一部微缩的中国消费史，你会发现，广告赞助商的每一次迭代，都精准踩在了时代产 业升级的鼓点上。 上世纪80年代起，中国家庭逐步告别"三转一响"，迈入追求"新三大件"（彩电、冰箱、洗衣机）的物 质启蒙期。进入90年代，春晚更成为家电巨头抢占国民认知、完成市场教育的超级扩音器。 而如今，当聚光灯扫过，登台互动的是硬核的智能机器人，赞助名单里穿梭着新能源汽车与前沿科技 巨头。 （来源:网络） 从"制造"到"智造"，中国家庭的"衣食住行"经历了翻天覆地的跃迁。在这个消费热点快速更迭、技术 红利不断爆发的时代里，极少有品牌能够穿越周期，连续11年站在春晚的舞台中央。 古井贡酒（000596.SZ），正是这样一个独特的存在。 （来源：凤凰卫视官微） 科技日新月异， 千年古井11年坚守陪伴 每年的春晚舞台都在经历技术爆炸。从早期的标清转播，到如今的4K/8K超高清，再 ...

"酒价内参"的每日数据源自全国各大区均有合理分布的约200个采集点，包括但不限于酒企的指定经销 商、社会经销商、电商平台和零售网点等，原始取样数据为过去24个小时中各点位经手的真实成交终端 零售价格，力求为社会各界提供一份关于知名白酒市场价格的客观、真实、科学、全程可追溯数据。随 着元旦官方i茅台平台开始出售1499元/瓶的飞天茅台，以及1月9日开始出售2299元/瓶的精品茅台，这一 新渠道对两款产品市场终端零售均价的磁吸式影响力已逐步显现。"酒价内参"发布的酒价遵循对真实成 交量加权的计算规则，我们已逐渐将可确量的价格引入飞天茅台和精品茅台终端零售价的计算中。 【点击进入酒价内参，查看真实酒价】 白酒业的重要新闻方面，26日"小茅i茅台"官方公号发布，自2026年2月26日（丙午年正月初十）起，在i 茅台APP"i购"板块购买贵州茅台酒（丙午马年）经典版/礼盒装，在自选生产日期时，除可选阳历生产 日期外，增加了对应的农历生产日期。此外，自2026年2月17日（丙午年正月初一）起生产的贵州茅台 酒（丙午马年）经典版/礼盒装就已增加了农历生产日期。 【点击进入酒价内参，查看真实酒价】 新浪财经"酒价内参"过去2 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the consumer staples sector in China is "Outperform" for multiple companies including Moutai, Wuliangye, and others [1]. Core Insights - Premium baijiu wholesale prices have rebounded month-on-month, while discounts on liquid milk and condiments have narrowed [1][11]. - The report highlights the resilience of consumer stocks amidst a volatile market, emphasizing their value [3]. Summary by Relevant Sections Baijiu Pricing - Moutai's wholesale prices for Feitian (case and single bottle) are 1700 and 1650 yuan respectively, with month-on-month increases of +100 and +70 yuan. Year-to-date changes are +100 and +60 yuan, but year-on-year changes are -530 and -560 yuan [10][40]. - Wuliangye's eighth-generation price remains stable at 830 yuan, with a year-to-date increase of +10 yuan and a year-on-year decrease of -105 yuan [4][40]. - Luzhou Laojiao's Guojiao 1573 price is 870 yuan, up by +20 yuan month-on-month and +20 yuan year-to-date, with a year-on-year increase of +10 yuan [4][40]. - Other notable prices include Shanxi Fenjiu and various products from Yanghe and Gujing Gongjiu, showing mixed trends in pricing [10][40]. Discounts on Consumer Products - Discounts on liquid milk products have decreased from an average of 62.8% to 61.4% and from 63.4% to 61.7% for median values [19][37]. - Discounts on condiments have also narrowed from 87.1% to 85.0% (average) and from 88.2% to 84.9% (median) [19][37]. - Conversely, discounts on convenience foods have slightly increased, with average discounts moving from 94.8% to 94.6% [20][37]. - Beer, soft drinks, and infant formula discounts have remained stable, with slight variations in average and median rates [21][38].