公司报告 | 公司点评 古井贡酒（000596） 证券研究报告 24 年顺利收官，十四五收官年稳健增长可期 事件： 4 月 9 日公司发布 2024 年度业绩快报。2024 年公司业绩稳健增长，实现 营业总收入 235.78 亿元，同比增长 16.41%；营业利润 77.51 亿元，同比增 长 23.36%；利润总额 77.87 亿元，同比增长 22.98%；归属于上市公司股东 的净利润 55.14 亿元，同比增长 20.15%；基本每股收益 10.43 元，同比增 长 20.16%。对应 2024Q4 季度，公司营业收入/归母净利润 45.09/7.67 亿元 （同比+4.85%/-1.17%）。 年份原浆支撑增长基本盘，24Q4 降速为 25 年开门红奠基。24Q4 公司营收 同比+4.85%，增速环比 Q3 回落。2025 年春糖期间，公司发布两款新品古 井贡酒·第八代（80 元价位）和古井贡酒·老瓷贡（45 元价位），强化公 司大众价位布局。 坚定信心强基固本，25 年古井稳健增长可期。4 月 10 日，"第十四届中国 白酒 T9 峰会"上董事长梁金辉发表《相信相信的力量 做更好的自己 助力 中国白酒 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected relative increase in stock price of over 20% compared to the benchmark index within the next six months [9][16]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 23.578 billion yuan for 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 16.41%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 5.514 billion yuan, up 20.16% year-on-year [4][7]. - The fourth quarter of 2024 saw a revenue of 4.509 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.84%, but a slight decline in net profit by 1.03% [4][5]. - The company is focusing on inventory reduction to enhance market quality and is expected to maintain stable growth in 2025 [5][6]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The latest closing price is 179.85 yuan, with a total market capitalization of 95.1 billion yuan and a circulating market value of 73.5 billion yuan [3]. Financial Performance - The company achieved a net profit margin of 23.39% in 2024, an increase of 0.73 percentage points year-on-year [4]. - The projected revenues for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 23.577 billion yuan, 26.006 billion yuan, and 28.996 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding growth rates of 16.41%, 10.30%, and 11.50% [7][11]. Product and Market Insights - The company is expected to see stable performance in its core products, particularly in the domestic market, with a focus on high-end and mid-range products [5][6]. - The management emphasizes the importance of customer service and collaboration with distributors to enhance market presence [5]. Earnings Forecast - The forecasted earnings per share (EPS) for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 10.43 yuan, 11.72 yuan, and 13.43 yuan, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 17, 15, and 13 [7][9].

证券研究报告：食品饮料 | 公司点评报告 发布时间：2025-04-12 股票投资评级 资料来源：聚源，中邮证券研究所 公司基本情况 | 最新收盘价（元） | 179.85 | | --- | --- | | 总股本/流通股本（亿股）5.29 | / 4.09 | | 总市值/流通市值（亿元）951 | / 735 | | 周内最高/最低价 52 | 280.38 / 140.60 | | 资产负债率(%) | 36.7% | | 市盈率 | 20.72 | | 第一大股东 | 安徽古井集团有限责任 | | 公司 | | 研究所 分析师:蔡雪昱 SAC 登记编号:S1340522070001 Email:caixueyu@cnpsec.com 分析师:张子健 SAC 登记编号:S1340524050001 Email:zhangzijian@cnpsec.com 古井贡酒(000596) 业绩符合预期，25 年有望保持稳健增长 l 事件 公司披露 2024 年业绩快报。2024 年实现营收 235.78 亿元，同 比+16.41%，归母净利润 55.14 亿元，同比+20.16%，扣非归母净利润 54.56 ...

金融界4月11日消息，上证指数低开高走，沪深300食品饮料指数 (300食品饮料，L11512)报24673.68 点。 数据统计显示，沪深300食品饮料指数近一个月上涨2.84%，近三个月上涨7.60%，年至今上涨1.18%。 据了解，为反映沪深300指数样本中不同行业公司证券的整体表现，为投资者提供分析工具，将沪深300 指数300只样本按行业分类标准分为11个一级行业、35个二级行业、90余个三级行业及200余个四级行 业。沪深300行业指数系列分别以进入各一级、二级、三级、四级行业的全部证券作为样本编制指数， 形成沪深300行业指数。该指数以2004年12月31日为基日，以1000.0点为基点。 从沪深300食品饮料指数持仓的市场板块来看，上海证券交易所占比75.32%、深圳证券交易所占比 24.68%。 从沪深300食品饮料指数持仓样本的行业来看，白酒占比79.94%、乳制品占比9.73%、调味品与食用油 占比4.63%、软饮料占比2.75%、啤酒占比1.47%、肉制品占比1.47%。 资料显示，指数样本每半年调整一次，样本调整实施时间分别为每年6月和12月的第二个星期五的下一 交易日。权重因子随样 ...

Core Viewpoint - Gujing Gongjiu's performance in 2024 shows strong growth despite the overall industry facing challenges, with revenue and net profit both increasing significantly compared to the previous year [1][2][5]. Financial Performance - The company achieved total revenue of 23.578 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 16.41% [1][2]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders reached 5.514 billion yuan, up 20.15% year-on-year [1][2]. - Operating profit was 7.751 billion yuan, reflecting a 23.36% increase from the previous year [2]. - The total assets of the company amounted to 40.516 billion yuan, growing by 14.38% compared to the beginning of the reporting period [2]. Market Position and Strategy - Gujing Gongjiu's performance exceeded the industry average, which saw a 5.3% increase in sales revenue and a 7.76% increase in profit for large-scale liquor enterprises [1]. - The company is noted for its proactive approach to managing channel health amidst high inventory levels, which has led to a strategic decision to slow growth [1][4]. - The "Nianfen Yuanjiang" product series remains a key revenue driver, contributing over 15.4 billion yuan, accounting for more than 75% of total revenue [3][6]. Stock Market Reaction - Following the earnings report, Gujing Gongjiu's stock price rose by 3.61%, closing at 178.29 yuan, with a total market capitalization of 94.244 billion yuan [4]. Industry Context - Gujing Gongjiu's net profit has doubled from 2.3 billion yuan in 2021 to 5.514 billion yuan in 2024, contrasting with the overall decline in production and sales in the liquor industry during the same period [5][6]. - The company has successfully implemented a "pyramid" product strategy, covering various price segments from low to high, which has contributed to its resilience in a challenging market [6][7]. Diversification Efforts - In addition to its core liquor business, Gujing Group is exploring diversification into the tourism and health sectors, with significant investments in hotel management and health products [8][9]. - The health division has launched new products and is working on establishing industry standards for herbal fermentation products [10].

2025 年 04 月 09 日 业绩略超预期，全年稳健收官 买入(维持) 事件 | 分析师：孙山山 | S1050521110005 | | --- | --- | | sunss@cfsc.com.cn | | | 联系人：肖燕南 | S1050123060024 | | xiaoyn@cfsc.com.cn | | | 基本数据 | 2025-04-09 | | --- | --- | | 当前股价（元） | 178.29 | | 总市值（亿元） | 942 | | 总股本（百万股） | 529 | | 流通股本（百万股） | 409 | | 52 周价格范围（元） | 140.6-280.38 | | 日均成交额（百万元） | 444.5 | 市场表现 -60 -40 -20 0 20 40 (%) 古井贡酒 沪深300 资料来源：Wind，华鑫证券研究 相关研究 1、《古井贡酒（000596）：业绩符 合预期，保持战略定力》2024-11- 01 2、《古井贡酒（000596）：业绩增 长稳健，全年目标达成可期》2024- 08-31 3、《古井贡酒（000596）：全国化 顺利推进，剑指三百亿新征 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [3] Core Views - The company is prioritizing channel health by actively slowing down growth in response to high inventory levels, with expectations of double-digit growth for certain products due to domestic consumption upgrades [7] - The company's net profit margin is expected to decline in Q4 2024 due to increased expenses aimed at reducing inventory, but overall profitability is projected to improve driven by product mix and efficiency [8] - The company is strategically enhancing its product lineup in the 100 yuan price range to meet market demand, transitioning from a price rebate model to a bare price model to alleviate financial pressure on distributors [9] Financial Performance Summary - Q4 2024 revenue is projected at 4.51 billion yuan (+4.8%), with a net profit of 770 million yuan (-1.2%) [11] - For the full year 2024, revenue is expected to reach 23.58 billion yuan (+16.4%), with a net profit of 5.51 billion yuan (+20.2%) [11] - The company forecasts revenues of 23.58 billion yuan, 26.03 billion yuan, and 29.02 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with corresponding net profits of 5.51 billion yuan, 6.27 billion yuan, and 7.20 billion yuan [9][12]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [3] Core Views - The company is prioritizing channel health by actively slowing down growth in response to high inventory levels, with expectations of double-digit growth for certain products due to domestic consumption upgrades [7] - Profitability is impacted by increased expenditure aimed at reducing inventory, with a slight decline in net profit margin expected in Q4 2024, but overall profitability is projected to improve due to product mix enhancement and efficiency gains [8] - The company is strategically enhancing its product lineup in the 100 yuan price range to meet market demand, transitioning from a price rebate model to a naked price model to alleviate financial pressure on distributors [9] Financial Performance Summary - For Q4 2024, revenue is reported at 4.51 billion yuan (+4.8%), with a net profit of 770 million yuan (-1.2%) [11] - For the full year 2024, revenue is projected at 23.58 billion yuan (+16.4%), with a net profit of 5.51 billion yuan (+20.2%) [11] - The company’s financial forecasts for 2024-2026 include revenues of 23.58 billion yuan, 26.03 billion yuan, and 29.02 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding net profits of 5.51 billion yuan, 6.27 billion yuan, and 7.20 billion yuan [9][12]

Group 1 - Moutai Group and Zunyi Municipal Government held a joint meeting to deepen cooperation and achieve win-win development, focusing on the construction of the world-class sauce-flavor liquor industry core area and important liquor production base [1] - Wuliangye Group plans to increase its shareholding in the company by 500 million to 1 billion yuan within the next six months, reflecting confidence in the company's future stability and long-term value [2] - Fenjiu will host the third Fen Si Carnival in Beijing, featuring a cultural exhibition and a high-end tasting event for aged Fenjiu, while also soliciting contributions of the oldest Fenjiu produced before 1990 [3] Group 2 - Gujing Gongjiu expects total revenue of 23.578 billion yuan for 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 16.41%, with a net profit of 5.514 billion yuan, up 20.15% [4] - Guizhou Provincial Department of Commerce plans to conduct a training program for the internationalization of the liquor industry, scheduled for April 10-11, 2025, focusing on various aspects of liquor export [6] - A new national standard for greenhouse gas emissions, specifically for the food, tobacco, and liquor industries, has been implemented, marking a shift towards more refined carbon emission management in traditional high-energy-consuming industries [7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 300 yuan [1]. Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a revenue of 23.58 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of approximately 16.4%. The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be 5.51 billion yuan, up about 20.2% year-on-year [1]. - The fourth quarter revenue is estimated at 4.51 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 4.9%, while the net profit is expected to decrease by 1.2% to 770 million yuan [1]. - The company is focusing on healthy growth and has successfully completed its New Year sales, establishing a solid operational foundation for the year ahead [1]. Financial Summary - **Revenue and Profit Forecasts**: - Total revenue (million yuan): 2023A: 20,254; 2024E: 23,577; 2025E: 26,054; 2026E: 28,726 [1]. - Net profit (million yuan): 2023A: 4,589; 2024E: 5,518; 2025E: 6,181; 2026E: 6,912 [1]. - Earnings per share (元): 2023A: 8.68; 2024E: 10.44; 2025E: 11.69; 2026E: 13.08 [1]. - **Valuation Ratios**: - Price-to-earnings ratio (倍): 2023A: 20; 2024E: 16; 2025E: 15; 2026E: 13 [1]. - Price-to-book ratio (倍): 2023A: 4.2; 2024E: 3.6; 2025E: 3.1; 2026E: 2.6 [1]. Market Performance - The company has shown resilience in its core markets, with a focus on inventory optimization and maintaining price stability. The performance in the domestic market remains strong, while there is noticeable differentiation in performance across regions [1].