行 业 研 究 食品饮料跑输大盘，零食板块表现较好。2025 年 1-8 月食品饮料板块上涨 3.9%，跑 输沪深 300 约 17.2pct，在一级子行业中排名居中（第二十七）。分子行业看，零食板 块涨幅较好（+55.2%），熟食（+25.6%）、其他酒类（+21.4%）表现相对靠前。啤酒 （-3.4%）、调味发酵品（-2.5%）走势较弱。零食板块表现较好，主要是万辰集团 （+164.7%）、有友食品（+40.9%）、好想你（+36.2%）涨幅较多。整体来看在市场 更多关注科技主题的背景下，食品饮料传统板块表现相对偏弱。 总量判断：承压基调未变，产业边际转暖 2025 年 09 月 04 日 投资评级：看好（维持） 行业走势图 数据来源：聚源 -12% 0% 12% 24% 36% 48% 2024-09 2025-01 2025-05 食品饮料 沪深300 相关研究报告 《中报承压下微光渐显，业绩分化中 孕育新机—行业周报》-2025.8.31 《白酒中报加速出清，大众品优先成 长性—行业周报》-2025.8.24 《进入业绩披露期，关注绩优股表现 —行业周报》-2025.8.17 中报综述：传统消费微光 ...

食品饮料行业 超配 （维持） 白酒加速出清，大众品结构分化 食品饮料行业 2025 年半年度业绩综述 2025 年 9 月 4 日 分析师：魏红梅 SAC 执业证书编号： S0340513040002 电话：0769-22119462 邮箱：whm2@dgzq.com.cn 分析师：黄冬祎 SAC 执业证书编号： S0340523020001 电话：0769-22119410 邮箱： huangdongyi@dgzq.com.cn 食品饮料（申万）指数走势 相关报告 投资要点： 本报告的风险等级为中风险。 本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 请务必阅读末页声明。 业 绩 综 述 行 业 研 究 证 券 研 究 报 告 目 录 | 1.食品饮料行业 2025 年上半年业绩概述 | 4 | | --- | --- | | 1.1 上半年行业营收实现个位数增长，利润同比下降 | 4 | | 1.2 上半年行业内细分板块业绩表现分化 | 4 | | 2.白酒板块：业绩承压，加速出清 | 5 | | 2.1 白酒板块 Q2 业绩同比下降 | 5 | | 2. ...

日前，白酒上市公司2025年半年报已全部出炉，行业整体业绩图景浮出水面。 在这一背景下，"主动降速，控量稳价"成为众多酒企的共同选择，尤其在制定2025年度目标任务时，普 遍将"稳"作为关键词。茅台将今年营收增速锁定在9%左右，强调企业由高速增长向稳健发展换档;五粮 液提出"2025年营业总收入力争与宏观经济指标保持一致"，将自身发展与宏观大势深度绑定;古井贡酒 则明确"营业总收入较上年度实现稳健增长"，一个"稳"字道尽笃定。 "稳字当头，稳中求进"不仅是宏观经济的总基调，此刻也成为白酒行业穿越周期迷雾的"定海神针"。这 种战略定力，是酒企在不确定性中寻找确定性的关键，目标的审慎与弹性，恰是酒企在行业调整期实 施"进攻性防御"战略的智慧体现。 基于这一思路，在市场运营策略上，酒企们展现出更为灵活的机动性。数据显示，今年上半年，在20家 白酒上市公司中，共有9家企业通过降低合同负债为传统渠道减压。在这背后，主动放宽经销商打款要 求，并同步进行停货稳价，成为酒企们的主要策略。 据佳酿网不完全统计，今年以来，近20家酒企先后发布了停货通知，包括五粮液、洋河、今世缘、汾酒 等上市企业，以及郎酒、习酒等非上市品牌。 众 ...

文|新消费财研社 "降度"已成为2025年中国白酒行业最热门的关键词。 8月底，五粮液推出29度"一见倾心"低度酒新品拉爆关注度，这款产品邀请邓紫棋代言，在抖音直播间一夜售罄。 方正证券认为，这款产品不仅是五粮液在低度酒市场的重要布局，也是五粮液与年轻消费群体沟通的重要桥梁。该产品的推出，将打破传统白酒厚重的商务 标签，成为年轻人"微醺消费"与"轻松社交"的载体，展现了五粮液在品牌年轻化道路上的战略远见与创新实践。 除了五粮液之外，泸州老窖宣布28度国窖1573已研发完成，洋河股份计划在八九月份集中上市果酒、露酒和低度潮饮，舍得酒业于近日推出29度低酒度产 品"舍得自在"…… 头部酒企纷纷降"度"谋变，这背后是中国酒业对年轻消费群体的迫切渴望。 酒企密集布局，低度酒产品迎来爆发期 中国低度酒市场正以惊人的速度扩张。行业数据显示，中国低度白酒市场规模从2020年约200亿元，一路攀升至2024年的570亿元，并预计在2025年突破742 亿元关口，年复合增长率高达30%。 这种爆发式增长背后是消费主体的代际更替。如今，90后、00后消费者正在成为酒水消费的主力人群，他们的偏好深刻影响着市场走向。 年轻人普遍排斥 ...

2Q25 Results: Lao Jiao, Gujing Key Takeaways Lao Jiao Gujing August 31, 2025 01:33 PM GMT Chinese Liquor | Asia Pacific | M | | Update | | --- | --- | --- | | August 31, 2025 01:33 PM GMT | | | | Chinese Liquor Asia Pacific | Morgan Stanley Asia Limited+ | | | | Lillian Lou Equity Analyst | | | 2Q25 Results: Lao Jiao, Gujing | Lillian.Lou@morganstanley.com | +852 2848-6502 | | | Wilkins Tong | | | | Equity Analyst | | | | Wilkins.Tong@morganstanley.com | +852 2848-7408 | | Key Takeaways | Dave Zheng | | | | ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [2][9] Core Viewpoints - Recent policies aimed at boosting consumption, such as the "2025 Shaoxing City Consumption Promotion Policy," are expected to benefit cyclical sectors, particularly in the liquor and restaurant chains [5] - The policy includes subsidies for banquet consumption, which will directly stimulate demand for liquor and benefit suppliers in the banquet consumption chain [5] - The report anticipates that similar policies may be adopted in other regions, which could enhance overall consumer demand and support the recovery of liquor demand and banquet supply chain enterprises [5] - The restaurant industry is currently at the bottom of its cycle but is expected to gradually recover due to ongoing policy support, with specific recommendations for various segments including liquor, restaurant chains, beer, and yellow wine [5] Summary by Sections Recent Market Performance - The food and beverage sector has shown a performance of -7% over the last 12 months, compared to 2% for the CSI 300 and 11% for the Shanghai Composite Index [4] Policy Impact - The Shaoxing policy provides tiered subsidies for banquet consumption, with a maximum of 5,000 yuan for events with five tables or more and total spending exceeding 10,000 yuan [5] - The policy is expected to stimulate banquet consumption during the upcoming Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day holidays, benefiting liquor demand [5] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on the following companies: - Liquor: Guizhou Moutai, Wuliangye, Luzhou Laojiao, Shanxi Fenjiu, Shede Liquor, Gujing Gongjiu, Yingjia Gongjiu, and Jinshiyuan [5] - Restaurant Chains: Hai Tian Wei Ye, Anji Food, Angel Yeast, and Qianwei Central Kitchen [5] - Beer: Qingdao Beer, China Resources Beer, and Yanjing Beer [5] - Yellow Wine: Kuaijishan and Guyue Longshan [5]

产品结构承压呈现量增价跌趋势，省内市场稳固省外调整明显。分业务看，2025H1 白酒/酒店/其他业 务分别实现营收136.40/0.46/1.94 亿元，同比+1.57%/+10.44%/-42.10%，从产品来看，年份原浆/古井贡 酒/黄鹤楼及其他白酒分别实现营收109.59/11.84/14.97 亿元，同比+1.6%/-4.4%/+6.7% ，销售量同比变动 +10.8%/+9.3%/+12.1%, 吨价分别同比-8.3%/-12.5%/-4.8%，各品牌产品结构均承压，二季度因政商务宴 请需求疲软，次高端价位销量下滑。分区域看，2025H1 华中/华北/华南/国际分别实现收入 122.97/8.09/7.68/0.05 亿元，同比+3.6%/-27.0%/-5.8%/-53.7%，区域表现分化明显，核心市场抗风险能力 更强，省外扩张短期受阻。分渠道来看，2025H1 线下/线上分别实现收入133.07/5.73 亿元，同 比-0.7%/+40.2%，线上渠道增速较快。从经销商情况来看，截至2025H1末华中/华北/华南/ 国际分别 3009/1378/655/20 家，较年初分别-32/+18/-6/ ...

Market Overview - The liquor sector experienced a decline of 0.98% on September 3, with Yili Te leading the drop [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3813.56, down 1.16%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 12472.0, down 0.65% [1] Individual Stock Performance - Key stocks in the liquor sector showed varied performance, with the following notable changes: - Shede Liquor: Closed at 67.25, up 0.13% [1] - Kweichow Moutai: Closed at 1480.55, down 0.72% with a trading volume of 45,000 shares and a transaction value of 6.656 billion [1] - Wuliangye: Closed at 126.62, down 1.51% with a trading volume of 302,900 shares and a transaction value of 3.883 billion [1] - Yili Te: Closed at 15.56, down 3.35% with a trading volume of 78,800 shares and a transaction value of 1.25 billion [2] Capital Flow Analysis - The liquor sector saw a net outflow of 726 million from institutional investors, while retail investors contributed a net inflow of 479 million [2] - The following stocks had significant capital flow: - Shede Liquor: Net inflow from institutional investors was 59.79 million, while retail investors had a net outflow of 17.44 million [3] - Kweichow Moutai: Experienced a net outflow of 14 million from institutional investors [3] - Yili Te: Had a net outflow of 2.68 million from institutional investors [3]

智通财经APP获悉，方正证券发布研报称，当前时点展望来看，多重政策催化下底部已形成，当期白酒 板块虽有所回暖但仍处历史低位。在整体经济预期好转下，白酒作为优质顺周期资产，估值中枢仍存在 修复空间，后续关注中秋&国庆对终端需求的改善，中长期跟踪政策端改善传导至需求端恢复的节奏。 该行认为行业呈现挤压式增长中预计分化将进一步加剧，白酒板块经营稳健性优先，红利资产属性凸 显，估值及情绪底部关注中长期发展韧性。 报表加速出清板块基本面磨底，品牌内部分化加剧，期待后续政策落地后经济积极恢复，风险释放后关 注25年需求改善情况。该行认为，白酒板块自Q2起降速，受宏观环境冲击与终端需求疲软，酒企短期 业绩承压，基本面处磨底阶段，品牌间分化加剧。 分价格整体表现看，高端白酒>次高端白酒>区域酒企(次高端白酒此前调整时间较长，地产龙头主动维 护核心市场及产品基础)。高端白酒持续通过品牌高势能及渠道掌控手段维持相对韧性。茅台等龙头通 过控货挺价、优化渠道等动作，稳固高端市场基本盘，抗风险能力显著。次高端白酒场景受政策影响更 加直接，由于此前调整时间较长，进一步加速探底，汾酒增长势能延续，压力期间仍显韧性。区域龙头 酒重点维护省内 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese liquor industry, particularly the baijiu sector, is currently experiencing a downturn, with many companies reporting declining performance. However, some analysts believe this could signal a bottoming out and potential recovery in the future [1][12]. Industry Performance - In the first half of the year, 15 out of 21 listed baijiu companies reported declining performance, with only 6 companies, including Kweichow Moutai and Wuliangye, showing positive growth [1][4]. - The overall industry is facing significant challenges, with many companies returning to average performance levels after years of high growth [4][11]. Company-Specific Insights - Leading companies like Kweichow Moutai and Wuliangye continue to show resilience, maintaining their positions despite a slowdown in growth [5][9]. - Companies such as Yingjia Gongjiu and Jiuzi Jiu have reported significant declines, with Yingjia Gongjiu's revenue dropping by 24% and net profit by 35% in Q2 [2][8]. - The performance of Shanxi Fenjiu has slowed, with growth rates returning to single digits after years of double-digit increases [2][6]. Market Dynamics - The competitive landscape is shifting, with a clear trend of market share concentrating among top brands, while smaller and regional brands struggle to maintain their positions [10][11]. - The number of regulated baijiu companies has decreased, indicating a consolidation trend within the industry [11]. Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that the second half of the year may see a potential rebound, particularly during the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day, which could provide a window for price stabilization and recovery [12][13]. - Despite recent stock price increases, the overall sentiment remains cautious, with many expecting that a full recovery may take until late 2025 or beyond [13][14].