前沿观察 | 天然气期货异动：六月合约跃居主力合约！

Group 1 - The June natural gas futures have become the main contract on the NYMEX, with a closing price of $3.343 per MMBtu, up 22.9 cents from the previous day [3] - The May contract settled at $3.170, marking the end of a month-long low in the natural gas market, which is now showing signs of recovery [3] - Despite the short-term weak fundamentals, the recent price increase may push prices towards $3.50 per MMBtu, although there are concerns about potential downward pressure if the rebound continues [3][4] Group 2 - The report indicates that the market has been digesting the weak fundamentals typical of the off-season, with a significant drop of $1.60 per MMBtu (34%) over the past seven weeks [3] - The report also highlights that the May contract dominated recent trading, with technical support being tested around $2.86 per MMBtu [4] - Weather-driven demand for natural gas is rapidly declining, and production from the Permian Basin is expected to rebound, leading to potential inventory injection pressures in the coming weeks [4] Group 3 - BMI has raised its long-term price forecast for Henry Hub natural gas, predicting an average price of $3.40 per MMBtu in 2025 and $3.80 per MMBtu in 2026 [6] - The EIA has also adjusted its short-term energy outlook, increasing the average price forecast for Henry Hub to $4.27 per MMBtu in 2025 and $4.60 per MMBtu in 2026 [7]