美一季度经济环比萎缩0.3% 英国央行暗示美元地位下降

Economic Performance - The U.S. GDP contracted by 0.3% on a seasonally adjusted annual rate in Q1 2025, which was worse than market expectations [1][2][4] - In contrast, the GDP grew by 2.4% in Q4 2024, indicating a significant downturn [2][4] Factors Affecting GDP - The contraction was primarily driven by a substantial increase in imports and a decrease in government spending [4] - Net exports negatively impacted GDP by 4.83 percentage points, as businesses stockpiled inventory due to concerns over potential tariff increases [4] - Personal consumption expenditures, which account for about 70% of the economy, grew by 1.8%, down from 4.0% in the previous quarter, contributing 1.21 percentage points to growth [4] - Federal government spending decreased by 5.1%, detracting 0.33 percentage points from economic growth [4] - Non-residential fixed investment rose by 9.8%, adding 1.29 percentage points to the economy [4] Trade Policy Impact - The U.S. government's broad imposition of tariffs has led to increased uncertainty among economists and business leaders regarding the economic outlook [4] - Concerns over supply chains and customer impacts have caused businesses to delay investment decisions, contributing to a sharp decline in consumer confidence [4] Currency Status - The Bank of England's Deputy Governor indicated that the U.S. dollar has lost its status as a safe-haven currency following the initiation of a global trade war [5] - The Bank of England is assessing how the depreciation of the dollar and the value of dollar-denominated assets will affect the UK financial system [5] - The credibility of the dollar has been questioned, raising concerns about a potential fundamental decline in demand for dollar-denominated assets [5]