水星家纺(603365)：电商渠道盈利优化 持续受益家纺补贴

Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 4.193 billion and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 367 million for 2024, showing a slight decline in revenue and net profit compared to the previous year, while the non-recurring net profit increased by 1.77% [1] - In Q4 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 1.51 billion, with a significant increase in net profit attributable to shareholders by 23.56% and a non-recurring net profit increase of 30.98%, attributed to home textile subsidies and internal adjustments [1] - For Q1 2025, the company reported a revenue of 926 million, with a decline in net profit attributable to shareholders by 3.79% and a non-recurring net profit decrease of 9.84% [1] Revenue and Profit Analysis - The online channel generated a revenue of 2.299 billion in 2024, a decrease of 3.75%, but the gross margin improved by 3.19 percentage points to 42.96% due to product structure optimization and reduced promotional efforts [2] - Offline revenue from franchise and direct sales was 1.333 billion and 325 million respectively, with franchise revenue increasing by 1.46% while direct sales declined by 6.51% [2] - The company’s core product category, bedding, maintained stable revenue of 2.029 billion, while pillow sales grew by 8.18% to 316 million [2] Margin and Expense Overview - The overall gross margin for 2024 was 41.4%, an increase of 1.36 percentage points, benefiting from improved online channel margins and product structure optimization [3] - The company’s expense ratios for sales, management, R&D, and financial expenses were 24.43%, 4.47%, 1.96%, and 0.17% respectively, with increases attributed to higher wage expenses and reduced interest income [3] - By Q1 2025, the gross margin rose to 43.9%, while the net profit margin was 9.7%, reflecting a slight decline of 0.5 percentage points year-on-year [3] Inventory and Cash Position - The company’s inventory at the end of 2024 was 1.012 billion, an increase of 5.21%, with inventory turnover days rising by 3.3 days to 144.62 days [3] - As of Q1 2025, inventory grew to 1.080 billion, a 6.72% increase from the beginning of the year, indicating a need to monitor inventory clearance [3] - The company had a strong cash position with monetary funds reaching 835 million by the end of Q1 2025 [3] Market Position and Future Outlook - The company is recognized as a leading player in the domestic home textile industry, continuing to deepen its "Good Bedding, Choose Mercury" strategy, with an increasing market share [4] - Despite a soft demand in the home textile industry since Q2 2024, Q4 saw a sales recovery due to regional home textile subsidy policies, with expectations for continued support in 2025 [4] - Profit forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 384 million, 410 million, and 435 million respectively, with a maintained "buy" rating [4]