OPEC+老大“撂挑子不干了”！沙特被曝准备承受油价下跌

Core Viewpoint - Saudi Arabia is signaling a potential shift in its oil production strategy, indicating a willingness to increase output and expand market share rather than further cut production to support oil prices [1][2]. Group 1: Saudi Arabia's Strategy - Saudi officials have communicated to allies and market participants that they can withstand lower oil prices by increasing borrowing and cutting costs, suggesting readiness to delay major projects if necessary [2]. - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) indicates that Saudi Arabia requires oil prices above $90 per barrel for budget balance, which is higher than other major OPEC producers like the UAE [2]. - Saudi Arabia's frustration with Kazakhstan and Iraq for exceeding OPEC+ production targets has led to a change in strategy, moving away from efforts to enforce compliance [1][3]. Group 2: OPEC+ Dynamics - OPEC+ may decide to accelerate production increases in June, with about 60% of surveyed traders and analysts expecting major member countries to agree on a significant increase [3]. - Current OPEC+ production cuts exceed 5 million barrels per day, with Saudi Arabia accounting for two-fifths of this reduction [3]. - Russia, as the second-largest exporter in OPEC+, is aware of Saudi Arabia's plans to increase production but prefers a slower pace of increase [4][5]. Group 3: Market Implications - The potential increase in Saudi production could lead to lower oil prices, impacting revenues for countries like Russia, which requires a price of around $70 per barrel for budget balance [5]. - Analysts suggest that Saudi Arabia's strategy may be influenced by a desire to punish OPEC+ members who exceed quotas and to reclaim market share from non-OPEC+ producers [6]. - Historical patterns indicate that OPEC+ leadership will not cease supply pressure until compliance is achieved among its members [6].