天目湖(603136)：稳中有进 1Q25利润改善显弹性

Core Viewpoint - The company's Q1 2025 net profit exceeded previous expectations, while 2024 revenue and profit were slightly below prior forecasts. The company aims for aggressive targets in 2025, focusing on the execution pace and effectiveness of new projects [1] Investment Highlights - The forecasted EPS for 2025-2027 is 0.51, 0.54, and 0.65 yuan respectively. Considering the industry average PE of 34 for 2025, the company is assigned a 30X PE valuation, raising the target price to 15.3 yuan and maintaining a buy rating [2] - 2024 performance was slightly below expectations, with revenue of 536 million yuan (down 14.87%) and net profit of 105 million yuan (down 28.80%). The decline was attributed to operational disruptions from hotel renovations and rigid cost pressures [2] - Q4 2024 revenue was 132 million yuan, down 6.9% quarter-on-quarter and down 15.2% year-on-year, with net profit of 19 million yuan, down 41.5% quarter-on-quarter and down 28.6% year-on-year. In Q1 2025, revenue was 105 million yuan (down 1.6%), but net profit rose to 14 million yuan (up 26.45%) [2] Core Scenic Areas and Hotel Performance - Revenue from core scenic areas in 2024 was 282 million yuan (down 13.0%), with a gross margin of 70.4% (down 0.8 percentage points). Hotel revenue was 159 million yuan (down 23.1%), with a gross margin of 21.4% (down 8.5 percentage points) [3] - The company is enhancing growth through the renovation and new construction of scenic areas, such as the Nanshan Xiaozhai Phase II project, to improve brand appeal and market competitiveness [3] 2025 Operational Plan - The company plans to achieve revenue of 580 million yuan and profit of 149 million yuan in 2025, focusing on innovative operations, quality improvement, and project development to leverage its one-stop tourism destination advantage [3]