航发动力(600893)：24年营收实现稳步增长 25年预算阶段性承压

Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of 47.88 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 9.48%, but fell short of the annual budget of 49.76 billion yuan by 96.22% [1][2] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 860 million yuan, down 39.48% year-on-year, completing 56.88% of the annual budget of 1.51 billion yuan [1][2] - The company anticipates a challenging budget for 2025, projecting a revenue of 47.66 billion yuan, which is nearly flat compared to 2024, and a net profit of 592 million yuan, down 31.16% from 2024 [2][4] Revenue and Profit Analysis - Revenue from the aviation engine and derivative products reached 44.99 billion yuan, up 10.03% year-on-year, but the gross margin decreased by 0.48 percentage points to 9.54% due to increased costs from new product maturity [2][3] - The foreign trade export subcontracting business generated 2.07 billion yuan in revenue, a 6.45% increase, with a gross margin improvement of 5.30 percentage points to 19.72% due to increased orders [2] - Non-aviation products and other businesses saw a revenue decline of 24.91% to 197 million yuan, with a gross margin decrease of 1.32 percentage points to 18.41% due to reduced high-margin product sales [2] Cost and Expense Overview - The overall sales gross margin for 2024 was 10.06%, down 1.03 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to increased costs and new product maturity [3] - Research and development expenses surged by 79.82% to 999.5 million yuan, driven by increased development tasks [3] - Financial expenses rose significantly by 84.30% to 457 million yuan due to an increase in interest expenses from higher interest-bearing liabilities [3] Balance Sheet and Cash Flow - Accounts receivable increased by 70.59% to 35.72 billion yuan, primarily due to delayed collections [4] - Accounts payable rose by 35.86% to 24.43 billion yuan, reflecting increased production tasks and raw material procurement [4] - Cash received from sales decreased by 15.13% to 30.75 billion yuan, indicating reduced cash flow from sales [4] Future Projections - The company forecasts net profits of 662 million yuan, 884 million yuan, and 1.22 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding valuations of 132, 99, and 71 times [4]