神火股份(000933)：煤价承压但氧化铝原料环比走弱 业绩仍有支撑

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a decline in net profit for Q1 2025 despite an increase in revenue, indicating potential challenges in profitability amidst fluctuating market conditions [1][5]. Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company's operating revenue was 9.632 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 17.13% but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 4.24% [1]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 708 million yuan, down 35.05% year-on-year and down 7.83% quarter-on-quarter [1]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders after deducting non-recurring gains and losses was 715 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 29.43% but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 1.97% [1]. Market Conditions - In Q1 2025, the average price of A00 aluminum was 20,429 yuan/ton, up 7.39% year-on-year but down 0.60% quarter-on-quarter [2]. - The average price of alumina was 3,916 yuan/ton, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 16.90% but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 25.78% [2]. - The average market price of prebaked anodes for electrolytic aluminum in Southwest China was 5,023 yuan/ton, up 12.38% year-on-year and up 16.82% quarter-on-quarter [2]. - The average price of lean coal in Zhengzhou, Henan, was 644 yuan/ton, down 12.25% year-on-year and down 9.08% quarter-on-quarter [2]. Corporate Actions - The company has initiated a stock repurchase plan, with a total repurchase amount ranging from 250 million to 450 million yuan, aimed at employee stock incentive plans [3]. - As of the Q1 2025 report, the company has repurchased 5.2218 million shares, accounting for 0.23% of the total share capital, with a total transaction amount of approximately 85.02 million yuan [3]. - The company is progressing with the plan for its subsidiary, Shenhuo New Materials Technology Co., Ltd., to be listed separately [4]. Profit Forecast - The company forecasts operating revenues of 39.362 billion, 39.523 billion, and 39.604 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [5]. - The projected net profits attributable to shareholders are 4.929 billion, 4.994 billion, and 5.070 billion yuan for the same years [5]. - The current stock price corresponds to price-to-earnings ratios of 7.7, 7.6, and 7.5 for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with a maintained "buy" investment rating despite a downward adjustment in profit forecasts [5].