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芒果超媒(300413):大力投入下业绩短期承压 海外贡献增量可期

Core Viewpoint - The company is increasing investments in top-tier series and technology applications, which has led to short-term pressure on performance, but future content releases are expected to drive a recovery in performance [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved revenue of 14.08 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 3.8%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.36 billion yuan, down 61.6% year-on-year [2] - For Q1 2025, the company reported revenue of 2.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 12.8%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 380 million yuan, down 19.8% year-on-year [2] - The company has adjusted its EPS forecasts for 2025-2026 to 1.01 and 1.18 yuan respectively, down from previous estimates of 1.16 and 1.33 yuan, and introduced a new EPS forecast of 1.34 yuan for 2027 [2] Group 2: Business Segments - The membership business showed healthy growth, with revenue reaching 5.15 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 19.3%, and the effective membership size reaching 73.31 million, up 10.2% [3] - The average revenue per paying user (ARPPU) was approximately 73.6 yuan per person per year, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 7.2% [3] - Advertising revenue in 2024 was 3.44 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 2.7%, primarily due to the overall lag in the recovery of the brand advertising industry [3] Group 3: Strategic Initiatives - The company is increasing investments in top-tier series, with spending on TV dramas rising by 12% year-on-year, and is also enhancing investments in micro-short content, animation, gaming, and technology applications [4] - The overseas revenue is projected to grow from 62 million yuan in 2023 to 140 million yuan in 2024, with cumulative downloads increasing from 130 million to 260 million [4] - The company plans to continue promoting top-tier variety shows overseas and strengthen collaborations with local institutions in countries like Vietnam, Singapore, and Malaysia to explore more content and business formats [4]