植田和男警告：特朗普关税通过三重渠道压制日本经济！

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Japan maintains interest rates while lowering economic growth forecasts due to uncertainties surrounding U.S. tariffs, but inflation is expected to remain on track to meet the 2% target, indicating that tariff risks may only delay rather than disrupt the rate hike plans [1] Economic Outlook - The uncertainty surrounding U.S. tariffs has heightened trade policy unpredictability, with expectations that trade negotiations will progress and global supply chains will not face major disruptions [2] - Japan's economy is expected to face downward pressure from tariffs through three channels: slowing global growth, damaging corporate profits, and increased uncertainty leading to delayed spending by households and businesses [2] - Despite these pressures, a gradual recovery in overseas economies is anticipated to alleviate some of the downward pressure over time [2] Inflation and Wage Growth - The Bank of Japan has revised down its growth forecasts for fiscal years 2025 and 2026, indicating a phase of synchronized slowdown in inflation and wage growth, although labor shortages will maintain a positive wage-inflation cycle [2] - The timeline for achieving the inflation target has been pushed back, and the current environment suggests a period of inflation stagnation, making it difficult to assess the likelihood of achieving baseline scenarios [2] - The probability of achieving baseline scenarios has significantly decreased, and developments in tariff situations may alter these scenarios, directly impacting monetary policy decisions [2] Interest Rate Considerations - The timing for the next interest rate hike may not automatically align with the delayed timeline for inflation approaching 2% [3] - The Bank of Japan continues to provide monetary support, albeit with adjustments, as inflation is expected to gradually approach the target within the three-year forecast period [3] - The potential impact of U.S. tariffs on terminal rates is uncertain and may depend on changes in Japan's natural interest rate [3][4] Consumer Resilience - Rising food prices are affecting processed food sectors and suppressing some consumer spending, yet overall consumption trends remain upward [3] - The impact of wage increases on nominal income has not significantly boosted real income due to unexpected food price hikes [4]