央行逆回购“首现缩量”，市场预期为降准铺路

Core Viewpoint - In April, the People's Bank of China (PBOC) conducted a total of 1.2 trillion yuan in reverse repurchase operations, marking the first reduction in the scale of this policy tool since its inception, which is interpreted as a potential precursor to future reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cuts aimed at supporting economic growth [3][5][6]. Group 1: Reverse Repo Operations - The PBOC announced a fixed quantity, interest rate bidding, and multiple price level bidding for 1.2 trillion yuan in reverse repos, with 700 billion yuan for 3-month terms and 500 billion yuan for 6-month terms [3][5]. - The April operations saw a reduction of 500 billion yuan compared to previous months, coinciding with the maturity of similar amounts in reverse repos [3][5]. - The reduction in reverse repo operations does not indicate a tightening of liquidity but may pave the way for future RRR cuts to enhance monetary policy effectiveness [3][6]. Group 2: Monetary Policy Tools - The PBOC has a diverse set of monetary policy tools, including short-term reverse repos and medium-term lending facilities (MLF), with reverse repos serving as a medium to short-term liquidity injection tool [5]. - Since October 2024, the PBOC has conducted seven reverse repo operations with varying scales, indicating a strategic approach to liquidity management [5][6]. Group 3: Future Expectations - Analysts suggest that the reduction in reverse repo operations and the increase in MLF operations may signal an upcoming RRR cut, which could inject significant long-term liquidity into the market [6][10]. - The PBOC has indicated a willingness to adjust monetary policy based on domestic and international economic conditions, with expectations for RRR cuts and interest rate reductions to support the real economy [8][9]. - Forecasts suggest a potential RRR cut of 0.5 percentage points and a reduction in interest rates by 0.3 percentage points in May, which would enhance credit demand and support economic stability [10].