美畅股份(300861)：行业竞争加剧致盈利承压 拟扩产钨丝母线产能保障未来发展

Core Viewpoint - The company reported significant declines in revenue and net profit for 2024 and Q1 2025, indicating challenges in the diamond wire industry due to increased competition and falling prices [1][2]. Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved operating revenue of 2.271 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 49.66%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 146 million yuan, down 90.84% [1]. - For Q1 2025, the company reported operating revenue of 423 million yuan, a year-on-year decline of 50.61%, with a net profit of 26 million yuan, down 86.46%, but showing a quarter-on-quarter recovery [1][2]. Industry Dynamics - The diamond wire sales and profitability are under pressure due to intensified industry competition and continuous price declines [2]. - In 2024, the company's diamond wire production was 125 million kilometers, falling short of the initial target of 165-180 million kilometers, representing a year-on-year decrease of 15.60%. Sales volume also decreased by 5.37% to 122 million kilometers [2]. Pricing and Revenue Impact - The average selling price of diamond wire (after tax) in 2024 decreased by 48.78% to 17.67 yuan per kilometer, leading to a 51.53% drop in diamond wire revenue to 2.152 billion yuan [2]. - The gross margin for diamond wire fell by 34.71 percentage points to 17.04% in 2024 [2]. Recovery Indicators - In Q1 2025, the company achieved a net profit of 26 million yuan, indicating a recovery in profitability, with a gross margin increase of 33.55 percentage points to 17.88% [2]. - Since Q3 2023, the company has maintained positive net cash flow from operating activities, ending Q1 2025 with cash reserves of 706 million yuan and no debt, indicating a strong financial position [2]. R&D and Future Plans - The company maintained a stable R&D investment ratio, allocating 60 million yuan in 2024, which accounted for 2.64% of operating revenue [3]. - Plans to invest 230 million yuan in a new tungsten wire mother line project aim to enhance long-term development, with expected monthly production capacity reaching 7 million kilometers [3]. Rating Adjustment - Due to increased competition and sustained pressure on diamond wire prices, the company has adjusted its profit forecasts for 2025-2027, expecting net profits of 213 million, 245 million, and 349 million yuan respectively, reflecting significant downward revisions [3]. - The current stock price corresponds to a 2025 PE ratio of 42 times, with a cautious adjustment to a "hold" rating due to ongoing profitability pressures [3].