一季度金条及金币消费量增长近30% 黄金投资后市怎么看？

Core Insights - China's gold consumption in Q1 2025 reached 290.492 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 5.96% [1] - The demand for gold jewelry fell by 26.85% to 134.531 tons, while the consumption of gold bars and coins increased by 29.81% to 138.018 tons [1][2] - The high gold prices have suppressed jewelry demand, while investment demand for gold bars and coins has surged due to geopolitical uncertainties and economic instability [2][4] Consumption Trends - The decline in gold jewelry consumption reflects a broader downturn in jewelry demand, exacerbated by rising gold prices and increased brand premiums [2] - Conversely, the investment demand for gold bars and coins has risen significantly, indicating a shift towards viewing gold as a safe-haven asset [2][4] Market Activity - The Shanghai Gold Exchange reported a total trading volume of 16,000 tons and a trading value of 10.70 trillion yuan, marking increases of 4.57% and 42.85% respectively [3] - The Shanghai Futures Exchange saw a trading volume of 55,400 tons, with a trading value of 30.52 trillion yuan, reflecting growth rates of 91.17% and 143.69% respectively [3] - Domestic gold ETF holdings increased by 23.47 tons, a year-on-year growth of 327.73%, reaching a total of 138.21 tons by the end of March [3] Global Demand - The World Gold Council reported a 3% increase in global demand for gold bars and coins, reaching 325 tons, driven primarily by retail investment in China [4] - In contrast, demand in the U.S. fell by 22%, while Europe saw only a modest increase, highlighting a divergence in market trends [4] Economic Context - The current high volatility in gold prices is influenced by macroeconomic factors, including trade disputes and geopolitical tensions, which have heightened investor uncertainty [5][6] - The ongoing economic instability is expected to sustain or increase gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset, potentially driving further demand in the coming months [6]