国际锐评丨美国一季度GDP负增长，关税政策效应提前显现

Economic Performance - In Q1 2025, the US GDP contracted at an annualized rate of 0.3%, marking the worst quarterly performance since 2022, with a significant decline from 2.4% growth in Q4 2024 [1] - The contraction is attributed to the early effects of new tariff policies, which are expected to continue negatively impacting the US economy [2][8] Market Reactions - Following the negative economic news, US stock markets experienced volatility, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average rising by 141.74 points (0.35%) and the S&P 500 increasing by 8.23 points (0.15%), while the Nasdaq Composite fell by 14.98 points (0.09%) [1] Consumer Behavior - Personal consumption in the US has significantly slowed, with a growth rate of -0.26% for durable goods, indicating a shift towards essential spending due to inflation [4] - Credit card data shows a growing divide in consumer spending, with low-income households cutting back on expenses while wealthier households continue to spend freely [4] Private Sector Investment - Private sector fixed investment grew by 1.3%, primarily in information processing and software, indicating ongoing interest in AI investments [4] - Inventory growth reached 2.25% as businesses prepared for the uncertainties brought by new tariffs, although this is seen as a temporary measure [4] Trade Dynamics - US exports remain weak, while imports surged by 41.3% in Q1, leading to a negative net export contribution to GDP [5] - The new tariff policies are expected to harm key economic states, particularly those reliant on imports of electronics and automotive products [5] Government Spending - Government contributions to GDP were negative at -0.25%, a significant decline from previous quarters, due to poor fiscal performance and spending cuts [6][7] - Federal defense spending and investment decreased by 0.31%, reflecting broader government austerity measures [7] Future Outlook - The combination of inflation and tariff policies is likely to lead to continued economic challenges, with predictions of negative growth in Q2 2025 [8] - Upcoming CPI and PCE data will be critical in assessing the impact of tariffs on prices, potentially leading to increased market anxiety [8]