Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley Direct Lending Fund (MSDL) is anticipated to report a year-over-year decline in earnings despite an increase in revenues for the quarter ended March 2025, which could significantly influence its stock price depending on the actual results compared to estimates [1][2]. Earnings Expectations - The upcoming earnings report is expected to show quarterly earnings of $0.56 per share, reflecting an 11.1% decrease year-over-year, while revenues are projected to be $103.52 million, representing a 4.5% increase from the previous year [3]. - The consensus EPS estimate has been revised down by 0.88% over the last 30 days, indicating a reassessment by analysts regarding the company's earnings prospects [4]. Earnings Surprise Prediction - The Zacks Earnings ESP model indicates that the Most Accurate Estimate for Morgan Stanley Direct Lending Fund is lower than the Zacks Consensus Estimate, resulting in an Earnings ESP of -3.57%, which suggests a bearish outlook from analysts [11]. - The stock currently holds a Zacks Rank of 4, making it challenging to predict a positive earnings surprise [11]. Historical Performance - In the last reported quarter, the company was expected to post earnings of $0.63 per share but only achieved $0.57, resulting in a surprise of -9.52% [12]. - Over the past four quarters, the company has only beaten consensus EPS estimates once [13]. Industry Comparison - Another company in the same industry, Palmer Square Capital BDC Inc. (PSBD), is expected to report earnings of $0.44 per share for the same quarter, indicating a year-over-year decline of 15.4%, with revenues projected to decrease by 6.6% to $32.5 million [17]. - Palmer Square Capital BDC Inc. also has a negative Earnings ESP of -1.15% and a Zacks Rank of 3, making it difficult to predict an earnings beat [18].
Earnings Preview: Morgan Stanley Direct Lending Fund (MSDL) Q1 Earnings Expected to Decline