2 Reasons Why AppLovin Has a Lot to Prove on May 7

Core Viewpoint - AppLovin's upcoming Q1 2025 financial results on May 7 are critical for the company's future, given its high valuation and recent scrutiny from short sellers [2][4]. Financial Performance - AppLovin's stock is down over 40% from its 2025 highs but has increased more than 600% in the last three years, indicating a volatile performance [1]. - The company has a high valuation of 20 times sales, nearly valuing it at $100 billion, which reflects sky-high investor expectations [3]. Business Model and Revenue Generation - In 2024, approximately two-thirds of AppLovin's revenue came from advertising, generating over $3 billion in full-year revenue, with a nearly 100% compound annual growth rate since the end of 2020 [5][6]. - AppLovin's revenue model is based on achieving a desired return on advertising spend for its customers, rather than just ad impressions, which may contribute to its significant growth [8][9]. Market Concerns - Short sellers have raised concerns about the authenticity and sustainability of AppLovin's growth, alleging that not all clicks on its ads are genuine and questioning compliance with mobile operating system policies [7][6]. - The combination of high valuation and fear from short sellers creates a potentially volatile situation for the company [4]. Growth Opportunities - AppLovin is expanding into e-commerce, with advertisers reportedly spending at an annualized rate of $1 billion on this initiative, indicating a significant growth opportunity [11]. - The company is also exploring connected-TV (CTV) channels, which could capture a growing share of advertising spend in the coming years [12].