外部需求疲软冲击摩洛哥经济

Core Insights - Fitch Ratings has downgraded Morocco's economic growth forecast for 2025 from 4.8% to 4.3% and for 2026 from 5.5% to 4.8% due to weak external demand [1][2] Economic Impact - The primary impact of U.S. tariffs on Morocco's economy is not from bilateral trade but from the ripple effects on demand in other markets, particularly Europe, which accounts for 69.2% of Morocco's total exports in 2023 [1] - The expected actual export growth rate for 2025 is projected to drop significantly from 6.1% in 2024 to 2.9%, marking the lowest level since 2020 [1] Medium to Long-term Outlook - Despite challenges, the report maintains a cautiously optimistic view on Morocco's medium-term economic prospects, citing factors such as falling international oil prices and increased agricultural production that will help mitigate the impact of weak European demand [2] - The trade deficit as a percentage of GDP is expected to decrease from 17.4% to 17% [2] - Average inflation is projected to remain low at 1.1% in 2025, aided by declining global oil prices [2] Sectoral Developments - The hosting of the Africa Cup is anticipated to boost the tourism sector, contributing to an increase in service trade exports [2] Debt Sustainability - The report indicates that stable economic growth and a basic fiscal deficit of 0.7% of GDP will keep the debt level manageable [2] - The government debt burden is expected to decrease from 70.2% of GDP in 2025 to 62.5% by 2034, supported by broadening tax sources and structural reforms [2]