4.30纯碱日评：检修消息提振有限，纯碱市场刚需主导

Core Viewpoint - The domestic soda ash market is experiencing a stable increase, with prices rising by 20-60 yuan/ton in certain regions, driven by maintenance activities and cautious purchasing behavior from downstream buyers [2][4]. Price Summary - In South China, light soda ash prices range from 1580 to 1670 yuan/ton, while heavy soda ash prices are between 1530 and 1700 yuan/ton [2]. - In Central China, light soda ash prices are at 1280-1390 yuan/ton, and heavy soda ash prices are at 1300-1450 yuan/ton [2]. - The overall market shows a price increase in South China, with a rise of 60 yuan/ton for light soda ash and 30 yuan/ton for heavy soda ash [1]. Market Dynamics - The industry operates at approximately 90% capacity, with some companies like Jiangsu Jingshen Chemical reducing output due to maintenance, while others like Tianjin Soda and Southern Soda are running at full capacity [2]. - The futures market for soda ash saw the main contract SA2509 open at 1375 yuan/ton and close at 1352 yuan/ton, reflecting a daily decline of 1.39% [3]. - The market is under pressure from upcoming delivery months and new production capacity in Lianyungang, leading to a generally weak market sentiment [3]. Future Outlook - The soda ash industry is expected to see a temporary decline in operating rates and production due to maintenance schedules, which may lead to a tightening supply and potential price increases [4]. - Continuous monitoring of major production facilities and inventory changes is recommended to assess the impact of maintenance on market dynamics [4].