LLY's Q1 Earnings Miss, Mounjaro & Zepbound Drive Sales, Stock Down

Core Viewpoint - Eli Lilly and Company reported mixed first-quarter 2025 results, missing earnings estimates but exceeding revenue expectations, driven by strong sales of its diabetes and weight loss medications [1][2][13]. Financial Performance - Adjusted EPS for Q1 2025 was $3.34, missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $3.52, but representing a 29% year-over-year increase [1]. - Total revenues reached $12.73 billion, a 45% increase year-over-year, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $12.62 billion [2]. Key Drug Sales - Mounjaro sales were $3.84 billion, up 113% year-over-year, exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $3.75 billion [3]. - Zepbound generated $2.31 billion in sales, compared to $1.91 billion in the previous quarter, beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2.27 billion [4]. - Trulicity sales fell 25% year-over-year to $1.1 billion, aligning with the Zacks Consensus Estimate [6]. - Jardiance sales increased 48% to $1.01 billion, significantly surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $675 million [7]. - Taltz generated $761.9 million, up 30% year-over-year, beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $663 million [7]. - Verzenio sales were $1.16 billion, a 10% increase year-over-year, but missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.25 billion [8]. - Emgality revenues dropped 45% to $124.6 million, while Olumiant sales rose 5% to $228.7 million [9]. Guidance and Market Position - The company maintained its 2025 revenue guidance of $58.0 billion to $61.0 billion, indicating a 32% year-over-year growth, but lowered EPS guidance to $20.78 to $22.28 [11][12]. - Competition from Novo Nordisk's semaglutide products is significant, with expectations of strong revenue growth for Novo's offerings [5][16]. - Lilly is investing in obesity treatments and has new molecules in clinical development, including a promising oral GLP-1 agonist [16][18]. Market Reaction - Despite strong sales, Lilly's shares fell nearly 5% in pre-market trading due to the EPS miss and lowered earnings guidance [14]. - CVS Caremark's decision to exclude Zepbound from its preferred drug list may impact sales [14]. - Lilly's stock has increased 16.7% year-to-date, outperforming the industry average of 3.5% [14].