4月结束，小阳春也基本宣告凉凉

Market Overview - The national real estate market is showing a significant cooling trend, with new home transactions in 26 key cities down 14% compared to March, remaining flat year-on-year [1] - The second-hand housing market is even more sluggish, with transaction volumes in major cities like Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen dropping between 8% to 40% in the first 20 days of April [1][3] - In Hangzhou, transactions plummeted from 12,400 units in March to 7,505 units, a nearly 40% decline [1] Price Trends - The average second-hand home prices in 100 cities fell by 0.69% month-on-month, with 19 cities, including Huai'an and Yancheng, experiencing declines exceeding 1% [3] - First-tier cities saw a slight increase in new home prices by 0.37%, while third and fourth-tier cities experienced a decrease of 0.11% [3] Market Dynamics - The market is characterized by a "two extremes" scenario, reflecting buyers' preference for core assets and caution towards non-core areas [3] - The ongoing US-China trade war poses significant challenges, with cities heavily reliant on exports seeing a 10% week-on-week drop in second-hand home transactions, while those less reliant on exports experienced a 12% increase [3] Policy and Regulatory Environment - Since the introduction of the 926 policy last year, no strong stimulus measures have been implemented for nearly seven months, with the latest political meeting emphasizing the need for long-term stability [4] - Some cities, like Nanjing and Shanghai, are beginning to test policy limits by cracking down on fake listings and misleading information to stabilize market expectations [5] Economic Recommendations - Nomura's chief economist suggests three key directions: increasing fiscal subsidies, promoting real estate industry clearing, and stabilizing export expectations through technological innovation [6] - Positive signals are emerging in some cities, such as Shenzhen, where new home transactions increased by 68% year-on-year, indicating continued attractiveness of core assets [6] Future Outlook - The real estate market is currently facing "threefold pressure": data cooling, trade friction, and policy observation [6] - Despite these challenges, there are indications that the market is not in a state of complete recession, as evidenced by policy rumors and strong sales of improvement projects in core cities [6] - For buyers, focusing on long-term value in cities with population inflow, industrial support, and favorable policies is crucial for resilience in the market cycle [6]