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水井坊(600779):业绩稳健 战略清晰

Core Viewpoint - The company achieved steady growth in 2024 with revenue of 5.22 billion and net profit of 1.34 billion, reflecting year-on-year increases of 5.3% and 5.7% respectively, despite cash flow pressures [1][4] Financial Performance - In Q4 2024, the company reported revenue of 1.43 billion, a year-on-year increase of 4.7%, while net profit was 0.22 billion, down 12.3% year-on-year [1] - The total sales revenue for 2024 was 5.35 billion, a decrease of 5.1% year-on-year, with net cash flow from operating activities at 0.74 billion, down 57.2% year-on-year due to increased production at the new facility [1][2] - The gross margin for 2024 was 82.8%, with a net profit margin of 25.7%, showing a slight decrease in gross margin by 0.4 percentage points year-on-year [2] Product and Market Dynamics - The revenue from high and mid-range liquor in 2024 was 4.76 billion and 0.26 billion respectively, with year-on-year growth of 2.0% and 29.1% [2] - The company’s high and mid-range liquor gross margins were 85.7% and 62.7%, reflecting a slight increase and decrease of 0.9 and 2.4 percentage points respectively [2] - In Q1 2025, the company achieved revenue of 0.96 billion, a year-on-year increase of 2.7%, and net profit of 0.19 billion, up 2.2% year-on-year [3] Strategic Outlook - For 2025, the company plans to enhance its brand matrix and accelerate store openings, with over 10,000 new stores expected in 2024 and double-digit growth in key cities planned for 2025 [4] - The company aims to implement a dual-brand strategy and launch new iterations of its product lines, which is expected to strengthen its competitive advantage [4] - The adjusted EPS for 2025-2027 is projected to be 2.87, 3.02, and 3.21, corresponding to a 16X PE for 2025, maintaining a "strong buy" rating [1][4]