此外还有部分品牌称将会在低度产品上发力。泸州老窖在2025年半年度业绩说明会上透露，继续推进38 度产品发展，更低度数产品相关规划正在研究中。水井坊此前提到，将进行产品创新，包括在特定区域 推出38度以下产品。 各大酒企之所以开发20多度白酒，主要是为了争取年轻消费者。比如29度五粮液·一见倾心选择歌手邓 紫棋作为全球代言人，将品牌与"青春、快乐"的情感绑定。26度的古井贡酒·年份原浆轻度古20则被定 位为古井贡酒年轻化战略主打产品，以"悦己、轻度、混饮"为特性抢占年轻市场。另据媒体报道，今世 缘副董事长吴建峰日前在一场行业论坛上称，将新产品定为22度，正是希望吸引更多原本不喝酒的年轻 人接触并喜欢上白酒。 在业内人士看来，酒企向低度化"进军"，无疑与当下的消费者趋势变革不无关系。一方面，年轻一代消 费者更偏爱低醉酒度、高舒适度的饮酒体验，对传统的拼酒文化较为疏离。酒企通过推出低度产品，采 用明星代言、跨界等，希望拉近与年轻人的距离；另一方面，微醺成为年轻人喜爱的休闲方式，低度白 酒将给年轻人在家自制鸡尾酒等提供更多选择。 从29度的五粮液·一见倾心、29度的舍得自在，到26度的古井贡酒·年份原浆轻度古20、 ...

| 甜园/披露 | I has been should and have been and a first and a firm a many of the I will Avenue of Station of Not I No. 1 / V 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2024年ESG披露事 | 上市企业酸量 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 中央国有企业 | 386 | 454 | 464 | 95.67% | 485 | | 地方国有企业 | 536 | 627 | 719 | 69.81% | 1030 | | 居营企业 | 753 | 958 | 1129 | 32.80% | 3442 | | 外资企业 | 56 | 69 | 81 | 43.55% | 186 | | 集体企业 | 10 | 12 | 15 | 55,56% | 201 | | 公众企业 | 131 | 147 | 163 | 50.62% | 372 | | 其他企业 | 11 | 10 | 12 | 50% | 中世紀的世 电 -- 网 OPPC cream ...

广州：半数以上产品价格回调，即时零售平台售价波动相对明显 中秋国庆双节过后，白酒产品的市场零售价格开始整体回调。而近期，一年一度的双十一大促活动 已经开启，各大线上平台推动满减、补贴等优惠活动，这又使得白酒均价的上调幅度有限，部分产品的 均价还在下滑。 在上一期的基础上，本期广州市场有超半数的统计样本产品市场零售均价出现上涨，包括第八代五 粮液、国窖1573、君品习酒、红西凤、洋河梦之蓝M6+等高端及中高端产品，均价上涨的幅度几元到几 十元不等。 白酒双十一迎来"冷静期"？线上大促线下观望 价格温和博弈 【中国白酒网】一年一度的双十一大促活动已经开启，各大电商平台如火如荼促销，白酒行业却迎 来"冷静期"。 南都湾财社-酒水新消费指数课题组发布的第五十三期《湾区酒价》数据显示，大湾区四城白酒价 格呈现分化态势：线上平台以补贴拉低高端酒价格，线下渠道仍以观望为主。产品方面，高端白酒在这 一波大促中意外地"保持定力"，价格波动不明显；部分中高端产品有降价趋势但幅度不大。 这或许与双十一前期的折扣力度不明显相关，但在理性消费与库存压力的博弈中，酒价波动折射出 行业渠道变革与行业调整的深化。 其中，上涨幅度较明显的产品 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese liquor industry is facing a bleak outlook, with multiple securities firms predicting significant profit declines for major companies, including Moutai and Wuliangye, by Q3 2025, indicating a severe downturn compared to previous optimistic expectations [1][4]. Group 1: Industry Predictions - Analysts from various securities firms, including Zhongyou Securities and Guangfa Securities, predict that major liquor companies may experience profit declines of up to 30% or more, with Wuliangye's profits potentially halving [1][3]. - Moutai is expected to see near-zero profit growth, while Wuliangye, Luzhou Laojiao, and Gujinggongjiu are projected to face around a 20% profit decline [1][4]. - The overall liquor industry is anticipated to face a more than 20% decline in sales volume due to external demand shocks [4]. Group 2: Market Conditions - The retail sales growth of consumer goods has significantly slowed, particularly in the catering sector, which has nearly stagnated, directly impacting liquor consumption [1][8]. - The average turnover days for inventory in the industry are high, indicating a pressing need for companies to manage inventory effectively amid changing consumer demand [10]. Group 3: Company Responses - Companies are adopting pragmatic strategies to alleviate channel pressure, including adjusting inventory and reducing expenses to enhance operational efficiency [6][9]. - Wuliangye acknowledged the challenges in the market during the recent holiday season but emphasized that official data should be awaited for a clearer picture [3]. Group 4: Consumer Trends - There is a noticeable shift in consumer behavior towards more rational consumption, with increased sensitivity to prices and a decline in the enthusiasm for high-priced products [9]. - The demand is shifting from traditional business banquets to more casual settings, such as gatherings with friends and family, prompting companies to adjust their product offerings [9][10]. Group 5: Future Outlook - Despite the short-term profit declines, the fundamentals of the liquor industry, especially for leading companies, remain intact, with a potential shift towards quality-focused growth rather than mere scale expansion [11]. - The upcoming Q3 reports are expected to provide critical insights into how companies are navigating the current challenges and adapting to market changes [11].

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Core Viewpoint - The Chinese liquor industry is experiencing a decline in production, with a significant drop in output expected in 2025, indicating potential challenges for major companies in the sector [1] Industry Summary - According to the National Bureau of Statistics, the production of Chinese liquor (converted to 65 degrees, in commodity volume) is projected to be 281,000 kiloliters in April 2025, representing a year-on-year decrease of 13.8% [1] - From January to April 2025, the cumulative production of Chinese liquor (converted to 65 degrees, in commodity volume) is expected to reach 1,308,000 kiloliters, reflecting a cumulative decline of 7.8% [1] - The report by Zhiyan Consulting provides an analysis of the market status and investment prospects for the Chinese liquor industry from 2025 to 2031, highlighting the ongoing challenges and potential shifts in the market landscape [1] Company Summary - Major listed companies in the Chinese liquor industry include Kweichow Moutai (600519), Wuliangye (000858), Yanghe Brewery (002304), Luzhou Laojiao (000568), Shanxi Fenjiu (600809), Gujing Gongjiu (000596), Shui Jing Fang (600779), Shede Liquor (600702), Jiu Gui Jiu (000799), and Lao Bai Gan Jiu (600559) [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a recommendation for the liquor sector, indicating a bottoming out phase with potential for recovery in the future [2]. Core Insights - The liquor industry is experiencing a significant decline in sales, with an expected drop of over 20% in overall sales volume. However, there are signs of month-on-month improvement, and the decline is narrowing [5][9]. - Major liquor companies like Moutai and Wuliangye are showing strong recovery in payment collection, with over 80% collection rates, while regional brands are performing adequately [5][9]. - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on high-quality liquor brands that are likely to recover faster, such as Moutai and Fenjiu, while also highlighting the need to monitor companies undergoing significant changes [6][9]. Summary by Sections 1. Liquor Sector: Q3 Accelerated Decline and Bottoming Out - The liquor sector is facing a 20%+ decline in sales due to external demand shocks, with a gradual improvement expected in the coming months [5][9]. - High-end liquor brands are expected to show resilience, with Moutai projected to achieve a 3% revenue growth in Q3, while Wuliangye is expected to see a 20% revenue decline [10][11]. - The report indicates that companies are adjusting their strategies to reduce channel pressure and improve operational efficiency [9][10]. 2. Consumer Goods Sector: Overall Demand Weakness, Structural Resilience - The consumer goods sector is experiencing overall weak demand, but segments like snacks and beverages are showing higher resilience [17][24]. - The report notes that while the demand for dairy and beer remains stable, the restaurant supply chain is still under pressure [17][24]. - Raw material prices are generally declining, which may provide some cost relief to companies in the sector [24][25]. 3. Investment Recommendations: Focus on Liquor Bottoming Catalysts and Selective Consumer Goods Trends - The report suggests focusing on liquor companies that are at the bottom of their cycles, with Moutai and Fenjiu being primary recommendations [6][9]. - For consumer goods, the report highlights the potential of snack and beverage companies, recommending brands that are well-positioned to benefit from current trends [6][17].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Recommended" [9] Core Views - The economic landscape continues to show resilience, with GDP growth in the first three quarters reaching 101.50 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.2%. Despite a marginal decline in growth rate to 4.8% in Q3, the overall economic stability is supported by new productive forces and effective macro policies [4] - Retail sales growth has slowed down, with total retail sales from January to September at 36.59 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.5%. In September alone, retail sales were 4.20 trillion yuan, growing by only 3.0% [5] - The beverage sector is performing strongly, with a focus on new consumption opportunities driven by retail channel transformations. Key companies to watch include Huashang Auntie, Tea Baidao, and others [6] Summary by Sections Economic Overview - GDP growth has shown resilience despite external challenges, with a year-on-year increase of 5.2% in the first three quarters [4] - The Q3 GDP growth rate decreased by 0.4 percentage points, attributed to external tariff policy changes and transitional pains in various industries [4] Retail Sales Performance - Total retail sales for the first nine months reached 36.59 trillion yuan, with a growth rate of 4.5% year-on-year. September's retail sales were 4.20 trillion yuan, reflecting a slowdown to 3.0% growth [5] - The decline in growth is linked to the reduced impact of the "old-for-new" policy and the timing of the Mid-Autumn Festival [5] Investment Opportunities - The report highlights several companies with strong recovery expectations in the consumer goods sector, including Weilai Delicious, Ximai Foods, and Youyou Foods [6] - The beverage sector is noted for its robust performance, with a focus on companies like Dongpeng Beverage and others, as well as the impact of new birth policies on dairy demand, highlighting companies such as Yili and Mengniu [6]

Core Insights - The liquor sector experienced a slight increase of 0.14% on October 21, with *ST Rock leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3916.33, up 1.36%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13077.32, up 2.06% [1] Stock Performance Summary - *ST Rock (600696) closed at 5.84, with a rise of 5.04% and a trading volume of 47,600 shares, totaling 27.11 million yuan [1] - Other notable performers include Tianyoude Liquor (002646) at 9.80, up 1.34%, and Qingdao Wenzhou (000995) at 13.97, up 1.31% [1] - Major stocks like Luzhou Laojiao (000568) and Kweichow Moutai (600519) saw minor increases of 0.80% and 0.30%, respectively, with Moutai's closing price at 1462.26 and a trading volume of 25,400 shares, totaling 3.73 billion yuan [1] Capital Flow Analysis - The liquor sector saw a net inflow of 12.19 million yuan from major funds, while retail investors contributed a net inflow of 15.9 million yuan [2] - Conversely, speculative funds experienced a net outflow of 172 million yuan [2] Individual Stock Capital Flow - Kweichow Moutai (600519) had a significant net inflow of 1.26 billion yuan from major funds, while it faced a net outflow of 1.26 billion yuan from speculative funds [3] - Wuliangye (000858) reported a net inflow of 29.16 million yuan from major funds, but a net outflow of 39.27 million yuan from retail investors [3] - *ST Rock (600696) showed a net inflow of 6.38 million yuan from major funds, while retail investors withdrew 5.52 million yuan [3]

Investment Rating - Industry Rating: Outperform the market (maintained rating) [6] Core Insights - The overall sales of liquor during the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day are expected to decline by 20%-30%, aligning with pre-festival expectations due to the impact of the "ban on alcohol" in May [2] - High-end liquor brands are showing resilience, while the mass market is under pressure, with a notable shift towards lower-priced products in certain regions [3] - The market is characterized by "overall pressure with regional differentiation," where high-end and regional leading brands perform better compared to mass-market products [3] - The price of high-end liquor is stabilizing after a decline, with notable brands like Moutai and Wuliangye showing recovery in prices [4] Summary by Sections Sales Performance - Sales during the double festival period are under pressure, with a slight recovery in terminal sales observed in September, but overall sales remain constrained [2] - Inventory levels among distributors are high due to sluggish sales, leading to cautious payment collection [2] Regional Analysis - Jiangsu: Stable sales in urban areas, but rural markets are struggling [3] - Henan: Lower-priced products are becoming the main sales drivers due to changing consumer perceptions [3] - Sichuan: Differentiated performance in urban and rural markets, with rural areas showing resilience [3] - Shandong: Sales are influenced by promotional activities, but overall market sentiment is weak [3] Pricing Trends - High-end liquor prices are stabilizing after a decline, with Moutai's price around 1760 yuan [4] - Strong brand power is crucial for performance, with brands like Jiu Gui and Jian Nan Chun showing better resilience [4] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that with the upcoming Q3 earnings disclosures, risks may be fully released, and the sector could see a recovery in sentiment [5] - Key investment lines include: 1. High elasticity stocks under policy expectations: Jiu Gui, She De, Shui Jing Fang, Lao Jiao, Hua Zhi [5] 2. Stocks benefiting from consumer recovery: Gu Jing Gong Jiu, Ying Jia, Jin Si Yuan [5] 3. Strong alpha stocks: Moutai, Fen Jiu [5]