King's Luck(SH:603369) Xin Lang Cai Jing·2025-05-02 00:37Core Viewpoint - The company reported a revenue of 11.55 billion and a net profit of 3.41 billion for 2024, showing year-on-year growth of 14.3% and 8.8% respectively, despite a decline in Q4 2024 due to proactive inventory control [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - In Q4 2024, the company experienced a revenue and net profit decline of 7.6% and 34.8% year-on-year due to increased inventory control [1] - For Q1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 5.1 billion and a net profit of 1.64 billion, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 9.2% and 7.3% respectively [1] - The total cash return for Q4 2024 and Q1 2025 was 7.66 billion, representing a year-on-year increase of 10.8% [1] Group 2: Sales and Product Performance - The company saw a 19.5% increase in sales volume for 2024, while the average price per ton decreased by 4.4%, indicating a shift towards more cost-effective products [2] - Revenue from different product categories in 2024 showed growth, with the top-tier products (特A+类) achieving a revenue of 7.49 billion, up 15.2% year-on-year [2] - In Q1 2025, the top-tier products experienced a slowdown in growth, with year-on-year increases of 6.6% for 特A+类 and 17.4% for 特A类 [2] Group 3: Market Dynamics - The company experienced significant growth in the Jiangsu province, with revenue increases of 21.2% in the Suzhong market for 2024 [3] - The number of distributors increased by 114 in the province and 53 outside the province in 2024, indicating a strengthening distribution network [3] - By the end of Q1 2025, the company had 636 distributors in the province and 613 outside, with a focus on key markets and core customers [3] Group 4: Cost and Profitability - The company's gross profit margin for 2024 was 74.7%, a decrease of 3.6 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to lower prices and higher costs [4] - The net profit margin for 2024 was 29.6%, down 1.5 percentage points from the previous year [4] - In Q1 2025, the gross profit margin was 73.6%, reflecting a slight decline of 0.6 percentage points year-on-year [4] Group 5: Investment Recommendations - The company maintains a strong competitive advantage and continues to be recommended for investment despite some performance pressures due to proactive inventory management [5] - The EPS forecasts for 2025-2027 have been adjusted to 2.97, 3.17, and 3.48 respectively, with the current stock price corresponding to a 16x PE for 2025 [5]