Investment Rating - The report downgrades four stocks: Fen Wine, Luzhou Laojiao, ZJLD to Neutral from Buy, and Anhui Gujing to Sell from Neutral, while maintaining Buy on Kweichow Moutai and Wuliangye [9][36]. Core Insights - The current cycle for the spirits industry is likely prolonged due to the impact of the new austerity policy, with uncertainties on when the cycle will bottom out [1][14]. - The report anticipates policy headwinds to persist from 2Q25 to 2Q26, followed by a modest impact in 2H26 as improper dining restrictions for civil servants normalize [2][14]. - The spirits industry is expected to see a decline in total addressable market (TAM) by 10% to 14% in 2025-27E, with a forecasted decline of over 6% in 2025 and a -2% decline in 2026 [2][14]. Summary by Sections Risk Profiling - A policy impact ranking analysis indicates that upper mid-end and commercial banquet-focused products will face greater pressure, while Moutai is expected to remain resilient due to its gifting demand and limited exposure to government-related banquet consumption [2][12]. Earnings and Valuation Analysis - The report projects +1%/+5% aggregated topline growth for 2025/26E, down from previous estimates of +6%/+9%, with high-end spirits expected to grow by +5%/+5% and upper-mid-high end spirits facing declines of -10%/+2% [2][14]. - A bear case analysis suggests potential earnings downside risks of 6% to 18% for most spirits names compared to the base case [2][14]. Industry Growth Forecast - The spirits industry growth forecast has been revised down to a greater than 6% decline in 2025 and a -2% decline in 2026, compared to prior forecasts of +4%/+3% growth [2][14]. - The report highlights that the spirits industry has been consolidating, with leading players gaining market share, particularly in the super premium segment [2][25]. Company-Specific Insights - Moutai's wholesale price stability is supported by various measures, and the report suggests that a price below RMB 1,800 could hurt distributor profits, leading to market volatility [8][14]. - The report revises down sales and net profit estimates for various companies, including a 1% to 19% reduction for most names, reflecting the impact of the new policy [36][37].

Overview - The food and beverage industry is currently facing a dual impact of oversupply and insufficient demand, leading to a restructuring of the overall pricing and competitive landscape [3][6][21] - Despite the pressure on prices and downward revisions of profit growth expectations in some sectors, the intense competition is driving innovation and reform, resulting in new business models and investment opportunities [3][6][21] Baijiu Industry - Since 2025, profound changes have occurred on both the supply and demand sides of the baijiu industry, with a coexistence of consumption upgrades and downgrades [7][22] - Some mid-range baijiu brands are under pressure, while certain local brands continue to grow rapidly, indicating a shift in consumer preferences [22][30] - Baijiu companies have proactively adjusted their supply strategies, leading to a significant slowdown in revenue growth to match demand changes [22][23] - The industry is undergoing a transformation in product and pricing strategies, suggesting a cyclical change, with recommendations to focus on companies with balanced product structures and healthy inventories [22][32] Consumer Goods - The consumer goods sector is entering a new phase where channel efficiency is paramount, driven by the rise of new retail formats such as discount stores and membership supermarkets [8][36] - New business models are disrupting traditional channel barriers and providing better value-for-money options, leading to structural growth opportunities [8][36][37] - The focus for investment should be on channel enterprises and related manufacturing companies, as new retail formats continue to gain traction [8][37] - The market for snacks and beverages is expanding rapidly, with the retail value in the lower-tier markets reaching 2.3 trillion yuan in 2024 [52][56] New Product Trends - There is still room for innovation in certain niche markets, with segments like leisure konjac products experiencing rapid growth [9][70] - The demand for high-quality products remains strong, with a significant portion of consumers willing to pay more for better quality [42][43] Market Structure - The industry is witnessing a consolidation phase, particularly in sectors like dairy, beer, and yeast, where competition intensity is decreasing and leading brands are gaining long-term competitive advantages [10][36] - Traditional sectors like yellow wine are also stabilizing, with improved profitability and potential for revaluation as market dynamics shift [10][36] Retail Channel Dynamics - The rise of membership supermarkets and discount retail channels is reshaping consumer purchasing behavior, with a notable increase in the number of snack retail outlets [48][56] - Companies like Youyou Foods and Lihigh Foods are effectively leveraging these new channels to drive growth and improve profitability [48][70]

东吴证券认为，本轮"反内卷"政策是宏观经济层面为缓解价格水平承压和资源配置低效问题的必然选 择，解决了当前新兴优势制造业中产能重复建设及恶性价格竞争带来的"囚徒困境"。短期内市场表现将 呈现结构性分化，新兴产业中受益于竞争整治和资源优化配置的企业具备改善空间，而传统行业则表现 稳健，整体市场偏均衡格局，成长与防御并重。 财通证券（601108）最新观点指出，行情再攀新高阶段，新一轮核心资产主线行情或开启，持续推荐龙 头化、国产化、全球化三大主线。当前"反内卷"催化下，龙头化有望跟进接力行情。关注制造（轨交、 工程机械）等、消费（乳品、家居、饲料等）、周期（能去产能的农化链、电新链、化工链，详见专题 研究）板块。 7月9日，A股震荡攀升，沪指时隔8个月重返3500点，多只银行股再创新高，创新药概念股反复活跃， 托育服务概念股普涨，消费板块表现不俗。 广发证券认为，白酒行业2025年有望迎来"估值-业绩"双底，当前已进入中周期买点。板块股息率与十 年期国债收益率比值较高，配置性价比显现。建议关注行业出清后的需求恢复，核心推荐标的包括山西 汾酒（600809）、今世缘（603369）、古井贡酒（000596）、贵州 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is "Outperform the Market" [5][6]. Core Views - The report highlights that the liquor sector, particularly Moutai, is stabilizing in price, and attention should be paid to the second-quarter performance of the sector [3][12]. - The food and beverage sector saw a slight increase of 0.74% this week, underperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 0.67 percentage points [2][22]. - The report emphasizes the importance of consumer demand and market health, with companies focusing on destocking and promoting sales in the short term while nurturing consumer engagement and internationalization in the long term [14][21]. Summary by Sections Liquor Sector - Moutai's stock buyback reached 3.3821 million shares, accounting for 0.27% of total shares, with a total expenditure of 5.202 billion yuan [3][12]. - The liquor index increased by 1.2%, indicating a potential valuation recovery driven by incremental policies [14]. - Recommended stocks include Moutai, Shanxi Fenjiu, and Wuliangye, which have demonstrated resilience through multiple cycles [14][21]. Consumer Goods - The report notes that the recent warm weather is favorable for beer consumption, with expectations for slight sales growth among major beer brands [15]. - The snack sector is experiencing a trend of differentiation, with recommendations for companies that are innovating in products and channels [16][17]. - The report suggests focusing on leading companies in the seasoning industry, such as Yihai International and Haitian Flavoring, as they show resilience [18]. Frozen Foods - The frozen food sector is stable, with companies actively developing new products despite the off-season [19]. - Anji Food's recent IPO on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange raised 2.302 billion HKD, which will be used to enhance sales networks and optimize supply chains [19]. Dairy Products - The dairy sector is expected to see a gradual recovery in demand, with supply pressures easing and potential policy catalysts on the horizon [20]. - The report recommends focusing on leading dairy companies that are well-positioned for upward elasticity in 2025 [20]. Beverages - The beverage industry is entering a peak season, with expectations for continued growth in segments like sugar-free tea and energy drinks [21]. - The report recommends East Peak Beverage, which is accelerating its national and platform expansion [21].

| www.haqjp.gov.cn | | 淮安市清江浦区人民政府 | | | | 陆南汇批 百+ | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | | 博索 | | 网站首页 走进清江浦 | | 新闻资讯 | | 政务公开 | 办事服务 | 政民互动 | | 当前位置：首页 > 政务公开 > 信息公开 | | | | | | | | 索引号 00026 | 11320812MB0509229A/2025- | | 发布机构 | 市场监督管理局 | 公开日期 | 2025-06-27 | | 文 를 | | | Hl 频 | 食品药品 | 体 载 | | 根据《中华人民共和国食品安全法》及其实施条例等法律法规的相关规定，现将2025年第一期清江浦区级实施的食品监督抽检信息公布如下： 本次清江浦区共抽检299批次食品，1批次不合格（抽检产品信息详见附件）。 针对本次监督抽检中发现的不合格食品，清江浦区市场监督管理局已要求属地分局责令经营单位查清产品流向，召回不合格产品，分析原因进行整改，并依 法予以查处。 | 通 | 品 | 造酱油 | 和图 ...

Core Points - The company held its 14th meeting of the 5th Board of Directors, where all 11 participating directors voted in favor of the proposals presented [1] - The board approved the annual evaluation report for the "Quality Improvement, Efficiency Enhancement, and Return to Shareholders" action plan for 2024 [1] - The board also approved the action plan for 2025 under the same theme, with unanimous support from all directors [1][2] Summary by Sections Board Meeting - The meeting was conducted in accordance with the Company Law and the company's articles of association, with all 11 directors participating in the voting [1] Action Plans - The 2024 annual evaluation report for the "Quality Improvement, Efficiency Enhancement, and Return to Shareholders" action plan was approved with a unanimous vote [1] - The 2025 action plan under the same initiative was also approved, reflecting the company's commitment to enhancing quality and efficiency while ensuring returns to shareholders [1][2]

证券代码：603369 证券简称：今世缘 公告编号：2025-025 江苏今世缘酒业股份有限公司 | 增持主体名称 | 今世缘集团有限公司 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 控股股东或实控人 | ?是 | ?否 | | | | 控股股东或实控人的一致行动人 | | ?是 | ?否 | | 增持主体身份 | 直接持股 5%以上股东 | | ?是 | ?否 | | | 董事、监事和高级管理人员 | | ?是 | ?否 | | | ?其他：__________ | | | | | 增持前持股数量 | 561,049,038 股 | | | | 增持前持股比例 （占总股本） 增持主体基于对公司未来发展的信心及长期投资价值 后续增持股份资金安排 关于控股股东增持公司股份计划实施进展 暨增持时间过半的公告 本公司董事会、全体董事及相关股东保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、 误导性陈述或者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 重要内容提示： ? 增持计划基本情况：江苏今世缘酒业股份有限公司（以下简称"公 司"）于 2024 年 12 月 31 日披 ...

证券代码：603369 证券简称：今世缘 公告编号：2025-025 江苏今世缘酒业股份有限公司 关于控股股东增持公司股份计划实施进展 暨增持时间过半的公告 本公司董事会、全体董事及相关股东保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、 误导性陈述或者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 重要内容提示： 增持计划基本情况：江苏今世缘酒业股份有限公司（以下简称"公 司"）于 2024 年 12 月 31 日披露《关于控股股东增持公司股份计划 的公告》（公告编号：2024-037），公司控股股东今世缘集团有限公 司（以下简称"今世缘集团"）拟自 2024 年 12 月 31 日起 12 个月 内，通过上海证券交易所交易系统以集中竞价方式增持公司无限售 流通 A 股股份，拟增持金额为人民币 2.7 亿元至 5.4 亿元（含本数）， 增持价格不超过 46 元/股（含本数），资金来源为自有及自筹资金。 增持计划的实施进展：截至本公告披露日，本次增持计划时间已过 半，今世缘集团已累计增持公司股份 8,755,895 股，占公司总股本 的 0.7023%，合计增持金额 386,850,064.89 元(不含交易费 ...

证券代码：603369 证券简称：今世缘 公告编号：2025-024 江苏今世缘酒业股份有限公司 2025年度"提质增效重回报"行动方案公告 一、聚焦主营业务，提升经营质量 公司地处淮河名酒带、世界美酒特色产区、中国矿泉水之乡，主营业 务为白酒的生产和销售。公司以"缘"为核心，以酒结缘，以缘兴酒，持 之以恒塑造品牌精神，打造更有温度、更具高度、更显特色的缘文化品牌。 公司现有"国缘""今世缘"和"高沟"三大白酒品牌，国缘品牌定位 "中国新一代高端白酒"，坚持"与大事结缘，同成功相伴，为英雄干杯" 传播方略，唱响"成大事、必有缘"的品牌宣言，凸显品牌高度；开创国 缘 V9 清雅酱香新品类，成为清雅酱香型白酒团体标准制定者。今世缘品牌 弘扬"今世有缘 相伴永远"品牌理念，致力于打造中国最有温度的文化名 酒。"高沟"是中华老字号，秉持"人生起伏、挥洒自如"品牌主张，定位 黄淮名酒带高端光瓶典范。 2024 年度，公司累计实现营业收入 115.44 亿元，同比增长 14.32%； 归属于上市公司股东的净利润 34.12 亿元，同比增长 8.80%；加权平均净资 1 产收益率为 23.74%。2025 年第一季度，公司 ...

第五届董事会第十四次会议决议公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述或者 重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 江苏今世缘酒业股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）第五届董事会第十四次会议于 2025年6月30日以通讯表决方式召开，会议通知已于2025年6月26日以电子邮件、专人送 达或电话通知等方式发出。本次会议应参与表决董事11人，实际参与表决董事11人，会 议的召开程序符合《公司法》及公司《章程》的要求。本次会议由董事长顾祥悦先生主 持，会议审议并作出如下决议： 一、审议通过了《<2024年度"提质增效重回报"行动方案年度评估报告>的议案》 表决结果：11 票赞成，0 票反对，0 票弃权。 具体内容详见与本公告同日刊载于上海证券交易所网站(www.sse.com.cn)的 《2024 年度"提质增效重回报"行动方案年度评估报告》。 证券代码：603369 证券简称：今世缘 公告编号：2025-022 江苏今世缘酒业股份有限公司 具体内容详见与本公告同日刊载于上海证券交易所网站(www.sse.com.cn)的 《2025 年度"提质增效重回报"行动方案公告 ...