Workflow
中金:维持保利物业(06049)“跑赢行业”评级 降目标价至38.6港元
POLY PPT SERPOLY PPT SER(HK:06049) 智通财经网·2025-05-02 02:44

Core Viewpoint - CICC has downgraded the 2025 profit forecast for Poly Property (06049) by 6% to HKD 1.55 billion, reflecting a 5% year-on-year growth, while introducing a 2026 profit forecast of HKD 1.62 billion, also a 5% year-on-year growth. The target price has been reduced by 9% to HKD 38.6, indicating a 25% upside potential based on a 13x target P/E for 2025 [1] Group 1 - The bidding expansion strategy is expected to drive stable growth in the core property management segment, with a projected annual contract value of new third-party projects in 2024 at HKD 3.01 billion, remaining flat year-on-year. The commercial and public service sectors are expected to see a 13% year-on-year increase in contract value to HKD 2.75 billion [2] - The overall revenue growth rate for the core property management segment is anticipated to exceed 10%, with third-party project revenue growth potentially outpacing the overall growth [2] Group 2 - In the value-added services segment, non-owner value-added income may face pressure due to the current real estate market conditions and short-term challenges in office leasing. However, there is potential growth in community maintenance and elevator maintenance services. The company has shifted its strategy from a broad product range to focusing on core products, leading to a slight decline in overall revenue [3] - By 2025, the adjustment in business layout is expected to conclude, stabilizing profitability in community value-added services [3] Group 3 - The company reported a net operating cash flow of HKD 2.3 billion in 2024, with a coverage ratio of 1.6 times against net profit attributable to shareholders. This is expected to provide support for operating cash flow in 2025 [4] - The dividend payout ratio is set to increase by 10 percentage points to 50% in 2024, reflecting the management's commitment to shareholder returns. The company aims to enhance operational quality while steadily optimizing its dividend mechanism [4]