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Core Viewpoint - The upcoming April employment report from the U.S. Labor Department is expected to provide insights into whether the U.S. economy is experiencing a temporary slowdown due to tariffs or a more destructive long-term decline [1] Economic Data Summary - Economists predict a non-farm payroll increase of 130,000 for April, a significant drop from March's 228,000, but still slightly below the average of 152,000 for the first three months of the year [1] - A decline in non-farm payroll growth below 100,000 could lead to increased market pessimism [2] - Recent economic data has been mixed, with Q1 GDP contracting at an annualized rate of 0.3%, weak private sector employment data from ADP, and a significant drop in job vacancies [2] - The ADP report indicated only 62,000 new jobs in the private sector, far below expectations, while job vacancies fell to approximately 7.2 million, the lowest since September 2024 [2] Employment Market Insights - French Agricultural Credit Bank forecasts 150,000 new non-farm jobs for April, citing a sharp decline in soft data but resilient hard data [3] - Goldman Sachs predicts 140,000 new jobs, noting that layoff indicators remain at historical lows, which is a positive sign [3] - Federal government layoffs, particularly under the Trump administration, are expected to impact the job market, with announced layoffs totaling 281,452, potentially affecting up to 1.2 million when including contractors [3] Inflation and Wage Data - The Labor Department will also release wage data, with expectations for average hourly earnings to increase by 0.3% month-over-month and 3.9% year-over-year, slightly above March's figures [4] Federal Reserve Policy Outlook - Federal Reserve Governor Waller indicated that if tariffs lead to rising unemployment, he would support early interest rate cuts, with potential impacts expected to materialize after July [5] - The Fed is currently in a dilemma due to the anticipated effects of tariffs on economic growth and inflation, leading to a cautious approach [5] - Market expectations suggest a modest rate cut in May, with more significant cuts anticipated in June and July [6]