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三花智控(002050):业绩超预期 机器人布局稳步推进

Performance Summary - In Q1 2025, the company achieved revenue of 7.669 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 19.10% and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 903 million yuan, up 39.47% year-on-year [1] - The gross profit margin was 26.83%, a decrease of 0.2 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin was 12.04%, an increase of 2.0 percentage points year-on-year [1] Operational Analysis - The performance exceeded expectations, with significant improvement in profitability. The expense ratios for sales, management, finance, and R&D were 1.87%, 6.01%, 0.01%, and 4.69%, respectively, showing a year-on-year decrease in sales and management expenses [2] - The net cash flow from operating activities was 468 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 333.66%, primarily driven by increased cash receipts from sales of goods and services [2] Future Outlook - In the refrigeration and air conditioning components business, the company is the largest manufacturer globally, benefiting from climate change and energy-saving policies, leading to steady growth in this segment [3] - In the automotive components business, the company has strong ties with leading automakers such as Mercedes-Benz, BMW, and BYD, with continued growth driven by the high demand in the new energy vehicle sector [3] - The robotics business is progressing steadily, with plans for overseas capacity expansion and potential contributions from Tesla's humanoid robot expected to enhance future performance [3] Profit Forecast and Valuation - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 30.805 billion, 35.629 billion, and 44.536 billion yuan, representing year-on-year growth of 10.23%, 15.66%, and 25.00% respectively [4] - Net profit forecasts for the same period are 3.680 billion, 4.298 billion, and 5.526 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth of 18.73%, 16.79%, and 28.59% respectively, maintaining a "buy" rating [4]