Where Will Constellation Brands Stock Be in 1 Year?

Core Viewpoint - Constellation Brands faces significant near-term challenges, leading to a nearly 30% drop in stock price over the past year, raising questions about its ability to recover in the next 12 months [1] Group 1: Challenges Faced - The company is experiencing a decline in alcohol consumption among younger millennials and Gen Z, raising concerns about the long-term viability of the alcohol market [2] - Constellation is heavily impacted by tariffs imposed by the Trump administration on Mexican imports, which could reduce its earnings per share (EPS) by $3 to $3.75 in fiscal 2026, equating to a 22% to 27% decrease from an EPS of $13.78 in fiscal 2025 [4] - Wine sales, previously thought to be more resilient, have also declined, with a 9% drop in fiscal 2024 and an additional 7% decline in fiscal 2025 [5] - The near-term outlook for the company is bleak, with expectations of flat organic sales and a projected EPS decline of 8% to 11% if tariffs remain in place [6] Group 2: Strategic Initiatives - To stabilize its business, Constellation plans to divest cheaper wine brands and focus on premium offerings, while also targeting younger consumers with nonalcoholic and lighter alcoholic beverages [7][8] - The company intends to invest approximately $2 billion in its Mexican production facilities through fiscal 2028 to enhance brewing capacity, alongside restructuring efforts aimed at achieving over $200 million in annual savings [8] Group 3: Future Projections - If the company's strategies are successful, it anticipates organic sales growth of 2% to 4% in fiscal 2027 and 2028, with EPS growth projected in the mid-single to low double digits for fiscal 2027 and low to mid-single digits for fiscal 2028 [9] - The stock is currently valued at 14 times forward earnings, with a forward yield of 2.2%, and a new $4 billion buyback plan has been authorized [10] - Should the company meet analysts' expectations and maintain its current valuation, the stock could rise about 4% to $193 per share over the next year, indicating a potential bottoming out despite near-term challenges [11] - A reduction in tariffs could lead to a quicker recovery in stock valuation, potentially resulting in gains exceeding 4% over the next 12 months [12]