Get 100% ad-free experience What's on the Thanksgiving Table? A Stock Pick for Every Course ByMarketBeat.com AuthorChris Markoch Stock Markets Published 11/19/2025, 05:39 AM What's on the Thanksgiving Table? A Stock Pick for Every Course View all comments (0)0 MarketBeat.com Articles(5781)|My Homepage Follow GIS 1.53% MKC 0.82% CPB 0.94% STZ -0.33% SEB 0.18% Every year, around this time, consumers hear about how much their Thanksgiving dinner will cost compared to the previous year. Whether that number is h ...

Constellation Brands, Inc. (NYSE:STZ) is one of the Worst Performing Stocks to Invest in on the Dip. On November 13, analyst Robert Moskow from TD Cowen maintained a “Hold” rating on the company’s stock and reduced the price objective to $132.00 from $144.00. The analyst’s rating is influenced by a combination of factors. One of the key reasons is the decline in retail sales, resulting in the reduction in its beer volume growth estimates for FY 2026. TD Cowen Maintains Hold Rating on Constellation Brands ...

Core Insights - Constellation Brands, Inc. (STZ) maintains a strong position in the beer and wine & spirits sectors through a focus on premiumization, brand strength, and disciplined portfolio management [1][10] - The company is investing in innovation and launching products that align with consumer trends, which supports sustained growth across its Power Brand portfolio [2][10] - STZ's premiumization strategy is reshaping its portfolio towards high-quality labels that meet evolving consumer preferences, particularly in the wine and beer segments [3][4] Company Strategy - The core brand strategy of Constellation Brands is gaining momentum, especially in the beer business, contributing to higher earnings [4] - The company is capitalizing on premiumization trends through direct-to-consumer capabilities and an expanded global footprint [2][10] - Investments in innovation and a focus on high-margin segments are key to driving growth across the beverage alcohol market [2][10] Competitive Landscape - Key competitors include Anheuser-Busch InBev (BUD), Boston Beer Company (SAM), and Molson Coors Beverage Company (TAP), all of which are also focusing on premiumization and brand development [5][6][7][8] - BUD has seen strong performance from its core brand Corona, achieving low-teens revenue growth outside of Mexico [6] - SAM is diversifying its portfolio with products like Truly Hard Seltzer to reduce reliance on traditional beer [7] - Molson Coors is committed to growing its above-premium portfolio and investing in high-performing brands [8] Financial Performance - STZ's stock has declined by 41.1% year-to-date, compared to a 3.5% dip in the industry [9] - The company trades at a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 10.70X, below the industry average of 14.29X [11] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate indicates a year-over-year earnings decline of 16.6% for fiscal 2026, followed by an expected growth of 8.8% for fiscal 2027 [12]

Core Viewpoint - Constellation Brands presents a potential investment opportunity despite challenges in alcohol consumption, particularly among Gen Z, as indicated by Berkshire Hathaway's recent share purchases [1][2]. Group 1: Alcohol Consumption Trends - Alcohol consumption remains a constant, with Constellation earning approximately 95% of its revenue from beer, including popular brands like Modelo [3][4]. - Historical evidence suggests that beer production has persisted for thousands of years, indicating a potential recovery in consumption trends [4][5]. Group 2: Dividend Appeal - Constellation has a strong dividend history, having paid dividends since 2015 and increasing its annual payout every year, currently offering $4.08 per share with a yield over 3.1% [6][7]. - The company generated about $1.85 billion in free cash flow over the last 12 months, significantly exceeding its $724 million dividend expenditure, indicating a stable payout [7][8]. Group 3: Valuation Metrics - The stock's current P/E ratio is 19, below the S&P 500 average of 31, with a forward P/E of 11 suggesting it is undervalued [9]. - Despite a 45% decline in stock price over the past year due to lower consumption concerns, analysts project a stabilization in revenue for fiscal 2027 [9][11]. Group 4: Share Repurchase and Market Position - Constellation has reduced its share count by 3% over the last year, with an outstanding share count of 175 million, positioning the stock for potential price increases with rising demand [12][14]. - The company controls several prominent beer brands in the U.S., enhancing its market position and likelihood of retaining business [13][14].

Core Viewpoint - Constellation Brands has experienced a decline in share price by approximately 7.8% since its last earnings report, raising questions about the potential for continued negative trends or a possible breakout before the next earnings release [1] Financial Performance - The company reported second-quarter fiscal 2026 results, with both sales and earnings surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate despite year-over-year declines due to weak consumer demand [2] - Comparable earnings per share (EPS) were $3.63, down 16% year over year, but exceeded the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $3.37. Reported EPS was $2.65, compared to a loss of $6.59 in the same quarter last year [3] - Net sales decreased by 15% year over year to $2.48 billion, slightly above the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2.46 billion. Organic net sales fell by 8% year over year [3] Segment Performance - Sales in the beer segment fell 7% year over year to $2.35 billion, driven by an 8.7% decline in shipment volumes due to socioeconomic headwinds and distributor inventory rebalancing. Depletions decreased by 2.7%, with notable declines in Modelo Especial, Corona Extra, and Modelo Chelada brands, partially offset by growth in Pacifico and Victoria [4] - The wine and spirits segment saw a significant decline of 65% year over year in sales, dropping to $136 million, primarily due to a 76.4% decrease in shipment volumes linked to divestitures and changes in distributor obligations. However, depletions in this segment grew nearly 2% [5] Margin Analysis - Comparable operating income for the company was $886.2 million, down from $1,019.1 million in the prior-year quarter, attributed to weak performance across beer, wine, and spirits businesses [6] - The beer segment's operating income fell 12% year over year to $951.6 million, with an operating margin contraction of 200 basis points to 40.6%, influenced by higher costs of goods sold (COGS) and increased marketing expenses [7] - The wine and spirits segment reported an operating loss of $19.8 million, a significant decline from an operating income of $70.5 million in the previous year, with margins affected by divestitures and changes in distributor contractual obligations [8]

Group 1 - Constellation Brands (STZ) is identified as an undervalued stock within an undervalued sector, with a high potential for recovery in the short to medium term [1] - The analysis emphasizes a value-driven and contrarian approach, focusing on mispriced assets [1] Group 2 - The analyst is currently pursuing an MSc in Economics and Finance, specializing in fixed income and commodities, and occasionally engages in stock picking [1]

Group 1 - The article introduces Nathan Dracobly as a new contributing analyst for Seeking Alpha, highlighting his background in Financial Economics and Mathematics [2] - Dracobly emphasizes his interest in value investing, influenced by notable investors such as Benjamin Graham, Warren Buffett, and Charlie Munger [2] - He has practical experience as an analyst for the WWU Student Managed Investment Fund, where he performs due diligence and builds valuation models [2] Group 2 - Dracobly has completed an internship at Trupanion, conducting competitive analysis for a new project and presenting findings to the company Chairman [2] - He holds the FINRA Securities Industry Essentials (SIE) certification and is a CFA candidate, indicating a commitment to professional development in finance [2] - The article mentions that Dracobly has a beneficial long position in the shares of STZ, reflecting his investment interests [2]

Core Insights - Warren Buffett has invested over $1 billion into three stocks: Lennar, Chevron, and Constellation Brands, marking one of his final moves before retiring from Berkshire Hathaway at the end of the year [1][2][3] Group 1: Investment Focus - Buffett's stock picks are defensive in nature, focusing on companies that will maintain steady demand over time, such as homebuilding, energy, and beverages [3][4] - The selected stocks are considered buy-the-dip candidates, with Constellation Brands and Lennar experiencing significant declines in stock price year-to-date, while Chevron has positive returns but has underperformed the S&P 500 [5][6] Group 2: Market Conditions - Lennar is expected to benefit from lower interest rates, making homes more affordable and facilitating borrowing [4] - Chevron and Constellation Brands are also positioned to benefit from lower rates, as these expenses are among the last that consumers will cut [4] Group 3: Investment Strategy - Buffett tends to focus on value stocks that are often overlooked by the market, indicating a preference for companies that may not be on the radar of growth investors [5][6]

Core Insights - The article highlights three top consumer brands offering attractive dividend yields ranging from 2.91% to 4.89%, presenting opportunities for passive income amidst market volatility [1]. Company Summaries - **Constellation Brands**: - Forward dividend yield is 2.91% - Shares have decreased by 49% from recent highs due to macroeconomic challenges, presenting a buying opportunity - The company owns popular Mexican beer brands, including Modelo and Corona, with new product Corona Sunbrew becoming the top new beer brand in the U.S. [3][4] - **Hershey**: - Forward dividend yield is 2.97% - Stock has fallen by 33% from previous highs due to record cocoa prices and poor harvests, making it a good buying opportunity - Hershey has a strong brand presence with top products like Reese's, contributing to an $11 billion snack business, and has paid dividends for 95 years, indicating financial stability [5][6][7][8] Market Context - Both Constellation Brands and Hershey are facing near-term challenges but have profitable businesses that support their dividend payments, making them attractive for income investors [7].

Core Insights - Berkshire Hathaway continues to invest in the stock market despite high valuations, with a focus on specific companies [3][5][10] Group 1: Berkshire Hathaway's Investment Strategy - Warren Buffett's investment philosophy warns against high market valuations, as indicated by the Buffett indicator, which is currently at an all-time high of 219% [2] - Despite market concerns, Berkshire Hathaway has initiated and increased positions in three key stocks: Constellation Brands, Lennar, and Pool Corp [3][5][10] Group 2: Constellation Brands - Berkshire Hathaway has a 7.7% stake in Constellation Brands, valued at approximately $1.9 billion, with purchases made in Q4 2024 and Q1-Q2 2025 [5][8] - The company is recognized for its strong market position, particularly with its premium beer brands like Corona and Modelo [6] - Constellation Brands has demonstrated reliable free cash flow, generating $1.1 billion in the first half of fiscal year 2026, which supports its dividend program and stock buybacks [9] Group 3: Lennar - Berkshire owns both class A and class B shares of Lennar, a major U.S. homebuilder, with purchases made in early 2025 [10][12] - The ongoing housing shortage in the U.S. is expected to benefit Lennar's long-term growth prospects [12] - The stock trades at under 14 times forward earnings estimates, which may be viewed as attractive by Buffett [13] Group 4: Pool Corp - Berkshire initiated a position in Pool Corp, holding a 9.3% stake worth over $1 billion, with consistent purchases since Q3 2024 [14] - Pool Corp's shares trade at 26.6 times earnings estimates, which is considered a premium price [15] - The company has a strong market position and generates predictable cash flow, with over 60% of revenue coming from repairs and maintenance [16]