"美联储加息预期重创金市，现货黄金跌破3230美元大关"

Core Viewpoint - The international spot gold price plummeted by 3.2%, breaking the critical support level of $3,230 per ounce for the first time since November last year, causing significant turmoil in the global precious metals market [1][2]. Group 1: Market Reaction - Gold prices were fluctuating around $3,280 before the release of the U.S. Labor Department's PPI data, which exceeded expectations, leading to a surge in the probability of a 75 basis point rate hike by the Federal Reserve in July from 67% to 89% [2]. - The London gold price hit a low of $3,218 per ounce, with a daily fluctuation of $62, while domestic gold futures fell by 2.7%, closing at 412 yuan per gram [2]. - The trading volume of COMEX gold futures surged by 240%, with open interest decreasing by 15%, indicating a forced exit of many long positions [2]. Group 2: Factors Contributing to the Decline - A significant outflow from gold ETFs was noted, with the largest gold ETF, SPDR Gold Shares, seeing a reduction of 8.7 tons in holdings, marking the largest single-day outflow since 2021 [3]. - The Federal Reserve's hawkish stance indicated two more rate hikes in 2023, with the terminal rate expectation raised to 5.75% [5]. - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rose above 3.85%, reaching a new high since April [5]. - The U.S. dollar index increased by 1.3% to 103.2, leading to a decline in non-U.S. currencies [5]. Group 3: Market Sentiment - Some investors viewed the drop as a buying opportunity, with a private fund manager in Zhejiang starting to build positions around $3,220, believing the market was oversold [7]. - Conversely, many retail investors panicked, with a trading platform reporting a fivefold increase in liquidation orders during the early hours, primarily for loss-cutting [7]. - A futures trading competition participant reported a profit of 370,000 yuan in a single day from short positions [7]. Group 4: Analyst Perspectives - Technical analysis suggests that with the breach of $3,230, the next key support levels are at $3,180 (200-day moving average) and $3,100 (September low) [8]. - Analysts generally expect gold to remain weak and volatile ahead of the July Federal Reserve meeting [8]. - Goldman Sachs maintains a year-end target price of $2,300 for gold, viewing the current pullback as a buying opportunity, while JPMorgan warns that if the dollar continues to strengthen, gold prices could drop to $3,100 [9].