KWEICHOW MOUTAI(SH:600519) Xin Lang Cai Jing·2025-05-02 10:26Core Viewpoint - Guizhou Moutai's Q1 2025 performance shows steady growth, slightly exceeding expectations with revenue and profit growth [2] Financial Performance - Q1 2025 total revenue and net profit attributable to shareholders were 514.43 billion and 268.47 billion yuan, representing year-on-year increases of 10.7% and 11.6% respectively [2] - Gross margin and net margin for Q1 2025 were 91.97% and 54.89%, with a year-on-year change of -0.6 and +0.5 percentage points [2] - Sales and management expense ratios were 2.91% and 3.73%, with year-on-year changes of +0.5 and -0.7 percentage points [2] - Operating cash flow remained stable, with sales collection growth accelerating; operating net cash flow and sales collection were 88.09 billion and 561.44 billion yuan, with year-on-year changes of -4.1% and +21.4% [2] Product and Channel Performance - Moutai liquor's revenue was 435.57 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 10%, while series liquor revenue was 70.22 billion yuan, increasing by 18% [3] - Direct sales channel revenue grew significantly, reaching 232.20 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 20%, with direct sales channel revenue accounting for 45.91% of total revenue [4] - International revenue showed rapid growth, with Q1 2025 domestic and international revenues at 494.61 billion and 11.19 billion yuan, representing year-on-year increases of 10% and 38% respectively [4] Profit Forecast - The company aims for a total revenue growth of approximately 9% in 2025 and plans to complete fixed asset investments of 47.11 billion yuan, with achievable targets [5] - Expected EPS for 2025-2027 are 75.23, 81.66, and 88.00 yuan, with current stock prices corresponding to PE ratios of 21, 19, and 18 times [5]