美国大豆被中国彻底抛弃，日本成了“接盘侠”？中方对特朗普不再幻想

Group 1 - The trade war is significantly impacting the U.S. economy, with major commodity exports like soybeans and pork experiencing drastic reductions, as evidenced by a 50% drop in soybean net sales and a 72% decline in pork net sales during the week of April 11-17 [1] - The National Retail Federation predicts that if tariffs continue to rise, U.S. imports could decrease by at least 20% in the second half of the year, leading to potential shortages and price surges in various goods [1] - Retailers are already responding to the situation, with some companies raising prices or issuing warnings about price increases, such as a 30% hike in prices for children's products like car seats and strollers [1] Group 2 - The U.S. perception of having leverage in the economic conflict with China may be overestimated, as China has been preparing for potential trade actions since 2018 and remains calm amid the tensions [3][4] - The trade war is characterized as a significant miscalculation by the Trump administration, which has underestimated China's resilience and strategic planning [4] - Japan is positioning itself to increase imports of U.S. soybeans and corn, potentially taking on the role of a buyer for U.S. agricultural products that China is rejecting [7][9] Group 3 - Japan is actively negotiating with the U.S. to address tariff issues, with proposals including relaxing automobile safety standards and expanding zero-tariff import quotas for rice, while also considering increasing imports of U.S. corn and soybeans [7] - The Japanese government is looking to create a dedicated quota of approximately 70,000 tons for U.S. rice to respond to U.S. demands regarding high import tariffs on agricultural products [7] - Despite Japan's willingness to assist the U.S. by increasing imports, there are concerns among Japanese citizens that such actions could negatively impact the domestic agricultural market, indicating a potential disconnect between government policy and public sentiment [10]