lolo(SZ:000848) Xin Lang Cai Jing·2025-05-02 14:40Core Viewpoint - The company reported a revenue of 3.29 billion RMB for 2024, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 11.3%, and a net profit of 670 million RMB, up 4.4% year-on-year. However, Q1 2025 saw a revenue decline of 18.4% year-on-year to 1 billion RMB and a net profit decrease of 12.53% to 220 million RMB. The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 3 RMB per 10 shares, totaling 315 million RMB, with a cash dividend rate of 47% [1]. Revenue and Profit Analysis - In 2024, the company achieved revenues of 3.19 billion RMB from almond milk, 90 million RMB from walnut milk, and 10 million RMB from almond milk, with respective year-on-year changes of +11.4%, -2.3%, and +248.6%. The sales volume for almond milk, walnut milk, and almond milk increased by 11.5%, 5.0%, and 171.5% respectively [2]. - The company’s gross margin for 2024 was 40.9%, a decrease of 0.5 percentage points year-on-year. The gross margin for Q4 2024 was 39.8%, an increase of 2.1 percentage points year-on-year, while Q1 2025 saw a gross margin of 48.1%, up 4.4 percentage points year-on-year [3]. Cost and Expense Management - The sales and management expense ratios for 2024 were 12.7% and 1.7%, respectively, with increases of 1.1 and 0.6 percentage points year-on-year. The rise in sales expense ratio was primarily due to increased investments in e-commerce operations, new market development, and new product launches [3]. - The net profit margin for 2024 was 20.3%, down 1.3 percentage points year-on-year, while Q1 2025 saw a net profit margin of 21.5%, an increase of 1.4 percentage points year-on-year [3]. Product Development and Market Strategy - The company has successfully implemented an employee stock ownership plan, enhancing management stability and focusing on both short-term and long-term growth. Recent product launches include almond milk, almond coffee, and herbal health drinks, with plans for further product development [4]. - The company is actively expanding its distribution channels, having developed 141 transportation hub stores, 203 school stores, and 9,028 restaurant stores by the end of 2024. The number of distributors increased by 56 to a total of 922 [2]. Future Outlook and Investment Recommendations - The company forecasts net profits of 700 million RMB, 790 million RMB, and 840 million RMB for 2025 to 2027, with corresponding EPS of 0.67 RMB, 0.75 RMB, and 0.80 RMB. The company is expected to benefit from cost pressures easing and new product upgrades potentially leading to category breakthroughs [4]. - A target price of 12.06 RMB is set based on an 18x PE ratio for 2025, with an initial "buy" rating recommended [4].