关税政策冲击美国港口 或引发供应链危机

Core Viewpoint - The recent U.S. government tariff policies have led to a significant decrease in cargo throughput at the Port of Los Angeles, impacting the surrounding supply chain and labor market [1][4]. Group 1: Impact on Labor Market - The reduction in cargo throughput has directly affected the livelihoods of dockworkers and truck drivers, with many expressing anger over lost business and potential bankruptcy [3]. - Trucking company representatives report that issues such as delays in obtaining parts for trucks have become problematic due to the tariff policies, leading to increased costs for non-original parts [4]. Group 2: Cargo Volume and Shipping Trends - Approximately 45% of the business at the Port of Los Angeles comes from goods imported from China, and under the new tariff policies, major U.S. retailers have suspended shipments of Chinese products [4]. - A forecast indicates that cargo volume arriving at the Port of Los Angeles in May is expected to decline by 35% compared to the same period last year, with 17 out of 80 scheduled cargo ships already canceled [4][5]. Group 3: Inventory and Consumer Impact - Retailers had stockpiled inventory prior to the implementation of the tariff policies, which may delay the negative impacts on shipping volumes for 5 to 7 weeks [5]. - A game store owner reported having a large inventory that could last until September, indicating a temporary buffer against immediate supply chain disruptions [6][8]. Group 4: Manufacturing and Economic Outlook - The National Retail Federation predicts that U.S. container imports will decline by over 20% year-on-year by the second half of 2025, which is expected to lead to rising consumer prices [9]. - The concept of "manufacturing return" to the U.S. is viewed as unrealistic, as the experience and infrastructure built in China cannot be easily replicated elsewhere [9].