Zhi Tong Cai Jing·2025-05-03 01:47Core Viewpoint - Despite a 16% drop in international oil prices in April and potential further production increases by OPEC+, major Western oil producers are maintaining their production growth plans [1][2]. Group 1: Company Actions - ExxonMobil (XOM.US) and Chevron (CVX.US) reaffirmed their plans to increase production by approximately 7% and 9% respectively this year, driven by the expansion of the Tengiz oil field in Kazakhstan [2]. - Shell (SHEL.US) and Total (TTE.US) also maintained their capital expenditure plans, while only BP (BP.US) reduced spending under pressure from activist investors [1]. - EOG Resources (EOG.US) has cut its annual budget by $200 million and lowered its production growth forecast from 3% to 2% [2]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - OPEC+ is reportedly discussing an increase in production by about 400,000 barrels per day in June, which contrasts with the production growth plans of major Western oil companies [1]. - The U.S. shale oil industry is facing challenges, as companies typically require oil prices above $60 per barrel to break even, with WTI crude oil closing at $58.29 per barrel [1]. - Independent operators in the U.S. shale oil sector plan to reduce drilling rigs by 4% by the end of the year, but this reduction may have limited impact on global supply [3]. Group 3: Economic Outlook - Analysts express concerns about the global economic slowdown affecting oil and gas demand, indicating a lack of catalysts to accelerate demand in the near to mid-term [4][5]. - The current market conditions suggest a moderate commodity price environment, with significant oil supply expected amidst economic uncertainty [4].