2025年国际原油价格分析与趋势预测

Group 1 - The report analyzes the international crude oil price trends and market conditions for 2025, highlighting a mixed outlook influenced by various factors [1][3] - In 2024, international oil prices experienced a downward trend, with Brent and WTI crude oil average prices decreasing by 2.77% and 2.27% respectively compared to the previous year [6][10] - The price difference between Brent and WTI crude oil narrowed, with an average spread of $4.07 per barrel, a decrease of 11.33% year-on-year, attributed to geopolitical tensions and improved supply fundamentals [10][19] Group 2 - The global economy is expected to recover moderately, supporting oil demand, but the rapid development of clean energy may suppress growth [2][11] - OPEC+ has postponed its production increase plans, while production from non-OPEC+ countries continues to rise, altering the supply landscape [17][21] - Oil inventories are at low levels, which may provide some support for oil prices [24] Group 3 - The dollar index is projected to strengthen, which could suppress oil price increases [25] - The market sentiment remains pessimistic, with net long positions in futures at low levels, indicating a bearish outlook [27][29] - Geopolitical risks remain high, with ongoing conflicts potentially impacting oil supply and prices [32][33] Group 4 - The forecast for 2025 indicates a tight supply-demand balance, but demand growth is expected to lag behind supply, putting pressure on oil prices [35] - The predicted average prices for Brent and WTI crude oil in 2025 are expected to range between $67-$77 per barrel and $62-$72 per barrel respectively [35]