日本面对美国贸易战的两大对策：提振内需和投资海外

Group 1 - Japan became the world's leading manufacturing power with significant trade surpluses with the US, leading to trade tensions and economic transformations from export-driven to domestic demand and overseas investment [1] - Japan's historical economic transitions provide valuable lessons for China, which faces similar challenges such as export bottlenecks, aging population, and industrial upgrading pressures [1] Group 2 - The "Income Doubling Plan" initiated by Japan in 1960 aimed at aggressive income distribution reform, resulting in an average annual wage growth of 10.6% over ten years and a GDP growth rate of 9.8% before the 1973 oil crisis [3] - This plan led to a significant increase in urbanization from 58% to 76%, creating the world's largest middle-class consumer group, but also revealed structural issues like labor market rigidity and rising income inequality [3][4] Group 3 - Following the Plaza Accord, Japan's export profits were severely impacted, prompting the government to implement the "Black字环流计划" to encourage overseas investment through tax deductions, low-interest loans, and investment insurance [6] - By 2022, Japan's overseas net assets reached approximately 411 trillion yen (about $2.8 trillion), equivalent to 75% of its domestic GDP, creating a unique "shadow Japan" [6] Group 4 - Despite generating around 20 trillion yen in annual investment income from overseas assets, Japan's domestic economy faced "industrial hollowing" and deflation, with manufacturing's GDP share declining from 22% in 1995 to 18% in 2022 [8] - The over-reliance on overseas production led to stagnation in key industries, with South Korea's Samsung increasing its DRAM market share from 3% in 1990 to 43% in 2022 [9] Group 5 - China currently faces a historical opportunity similar to Japan's, with a manufacturing value-added share of 30% globally and foreign exchange reserves exceeding $3 trillion, but labor costs nearing OECD averages [11] - To learn from Japan's experience, China should focus on balancing industrial upgrades with overseas expansion, ensuring domestic innovation ecosystems are nurtured alongside asset accumulation [11][12] Group 6 - Recommendations for China include maintaining over 51% domestic R&D intensity in strategic sectors, designing mechanisms for capital output and profit repatriation, and innovating social security systems to address aging populations [12][13] - The integration of digital currency for cross-border settlements and leveraging industrial internet can help China establish a development model distinct from Japan's [13]