等72小时再交易！市场已总结出“川普2.0时代交易准则”

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of Trump's social media activity on the bond market, leading to the adoption of a "72-hour trading rule" by investors to mitigate risks associated with policy reversals [1][3]. Group 1: Market Reactions to Trump's Policies - Bond investors have suffered losses from reacting immediately to Trump's tweets, such as the threat of a 200% tariff on European wine, which was later retracted, causing bond prices to rebound unexpectedly [2]. - The "72-hour rule" has emerged as a strategy where investors wait 72 hours after a significant policy announcement before taking action, allowing time to assess the stability of the policy [3]. Group 2: Changes in Trading Practices - Investors are increasingly cautious and have developed a heightened awareness of the risks associated with Trump's tweets, leading to a more measured approach to trading [4]. - European bankers are leveraging time zone differences to expedite bond issuance processes, aiming to finalize deals before potential market disruptions caused by Trump's tweets [4]. Group 3: Shift in Investment Focus - Ongoing policy uncertainty and predictions of a 45% chance of recession due to Trump's actions have prompted credit investors to reassess risks, leading to a preference for non-cyclical industries less affected by trade tensions [5]. - Companies like General Motors, Mercedes-Benz, McDonald's, and Procter & Gamble have either withdrawn earnings guidance or reported sales declines, reinforcing a risk-averse market sentiment [5]. Group 4: Sector Preferences - Investors are focusing on industries that are less impacted by tariffs, such as canned tomato producers and mobile service providers, as these sectors are seen as more stable [6]. - There is a call for a return to fundamental analysis, although the complexity of global supply chains makes this challenging [6].