迎驾贡酒(603198)：外部需求较为疲软 25Q1业绩有所承压

Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of 7.34 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 8.5%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.59 billion yuan, up 13.4% year-on-year [1] - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 1.5 yuan per share, totaling 1.2 billion yuan, which accounts for 46.3% of the net profit for the period [1] Group 1: Revenue and Profit Performance - In Q4 2024, the company reported a revenue of 1.83 billion yuan, down 5.0% year-on-year, and a net profit of 580 million yuan, down 4.9% year-on-year [1] - For Q1 2025, the company recorded a revenue of 2.05 billion yuan, a decrease of 12.3% year-on-year, with a net profit of 830 million yuan, down 9.5% year-on-year [1] Group 2: Product Performance - The company's Dongcang series showed steady performance, with revenue from mid-to-high-end liquor reaching 5.71 billion yuan in 2024, up 13.8% year-on-year, while ordinary liquor revenue was 1.29 billion yuan, down 6.5% year-on-year [2] - In Q1 2025, mid-to-high-end liquor revenue was 1.72 billion yuan, down 8.6% year-on-year, and ordinary liquor revenue was 240 million yuan, down 32.1% year-on-year [2] Group 3: Regional Performance - In 2024, revenue from the domestic market was 5.09 billion yuan, up 12.8% year-on-year, while revenue from the external market was 1.91 billion yuan, up 1.3% year-on-year [2] - In Q1 2025, domestic revenue was 1.63 billion yuan, down 7.7% year-on-year, and external revenue was 330 million yuan, down 29.7% year-on-year [2] Group 4: Profitability and Cash Flow - The company's gross margin improved by 2.6 percentage points to 73.9% in 2024, driven by the increased proportion of Dongcang series sales [3] - In Q1 2025, the gross margin further increased by 1.4 percentage points to 76.5%, with a net profit margin of 40.6%, up 1.2 percentage points year-on-year [3] - Cash receipts from sales in Q1 2025 were 2.21 billion yuan, down 4.7% year-on-year, indicating temporary cash flow pressure [3] Group 5: Future Outlook - The Dongcang series is expected to continue its growth trend, with the company planning to enhance its efforts in cultivating the external market and increasing resource allocation for its products [4] - The company forecasts EPS for 2025-2027 to be 3.27 yuan, 3.50 yuan, and 3.80 yuan, respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 14x, 13x, and 12x [4] - A target price of 55.59 yuan is set for 2025, based on a 17x PE ratio, maintaining a "buy" rating [4]