研究报告 Research Report 27 Mar 2026 中国必需消费 China (A-share) Staples 中国必选消费品 3 月价格报告：白酒批价跌多涨少，婴配粉外大众品均加大折扣 Wholesale prices of baijiu show more declines than gains, general consumer goods aside from infant formula are increasing discounts [Table_yemei1] 观点聚焦 Investment Focus | 股票名称 | 评级 | 股票名称 | 评级 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 贵州茅台 | Outperform 古井贡酒 | | Outperform | | 贵州茅台 | Outperform 燕京啤酒 | | Outperform | | 五粮液 | Outperform 安琪酵母 | | Outperform | | 五粮液 | Outperform 今世缘 | | Outperform | | 海天味业 | Outperform 重庆啤酒 ...

| 姓名 | | 离任职务 | 离任时间 | 原定任期 | | 是否继续在 上市公司及 | 具体职务(如 | 是否存在 未履行完 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | 到期日 | 离任原因 | 其控股子公 | 适用) | 毕的公开 | | | | | | | | 司任职 | 董事、新酬与 | 承诺 | | | | | 2026 年 3 | 2026年9月 | | | 考核委员会 | | | 泰 | 海 | 总经理 | | | 工作调整 | 是 | | 否 | | | | | 月 10 日 | 8 日 | | | 委员、战略委 | | | | | | | | | | 员会委员 | | 图源：迎驾贡酒公告 秦海和杨照兵并非第一次角色轮换。 2016 年前后，秦海担任上市公司总经理，杨照兵是迎驾贡酒销售公司总经理。 2018 年秦海转任迎驾集团副总裁兼安徽迎驾山泉公司总经理，杨 照兵接任上市公司总经理，后兼任迎驾贡酒销售公司总经理； 2023 年董事会换届，秦海重新出任总经理，杨照兵转任副总经理但保留销售公司总 经理这 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the food and beverage industry [5] Core Insights - The retail sales growth has accelerated, with a focus on feedback from the Spring Sugar Festival. The report suggests that the overall rhythm of the liquor industry is expected to improve on a month-on-month basis, with key recommendations including leading companies like Kweichow Moutai and others focusing on supply clearance [1][2] - The beer sector is witnessing a recovery, with a notable increase in beer production and the launch of new products, indicating a positive trend in consumer demand [3] - The food sector shows a recovery in retail sales, particularly in the restaurant segment, which is expected to drive opportunities in related supply chains [4][7] Summary by Sections Liquor Industry - Jinhuijiu reported a revenue of 2.918 billion yuan for 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 3.4%, while Shide Jiuye reported a revenue of 4.42 billion yuan, down 17.5% year-on-year. The report highlights a significant divergence in performance among liquor companies, with Kweichow Moutai leading the recovery through reforms [2] - Jinhuijiu's product structure upgrade is notable, with high-end products (above 300 yuan) increasing by 25.21% year-on-year, while low-end products (below 100 yuan) decreased by 36.88% [2] Beer and Beverage Sector - In the beer segment, the cumulative production of major enterprises reached 5.797 million kiloliters in January-February 2026, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 6.5%. The launch of the new Yanjing A10 product is expected to enhance market presence [3] - The beverage sector is characterized by intense competition, with companies launching new products to capture market share. Notable new releases include flavored waters and teas targeting specific consumer scenarios [3] Food Sector - Retail sales in the food sector increased by 2.8% year-on-year in January-February 2026, with restaurant income growing by 4.8%. This growth is attributed to the recovery of consumer spending and seasonal factors [4][7] - Wanchen Group reported a record high net profit margin of 5.7% in Q4 2025, indicating strong profitability and market expansion potential [7]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market," indicating that the industry index is expected to perform better than the CSI 300 index by more than 5% over the next six months [52]. Core Viewpoints - The darkest hour for the liquor industry has passed, and a sustained recovery is expected in 2026. The industry has moved past the excessive growth phase, with excess returns increasingly coming from price adjustments. The Producer Price Index (PPI) and the price of Moutai show a high degree of correlation, suggesting a recovery in pricing dynamics [4][19]. - Moutai's reform focuses on direct consumer engagement and returning pricing to its consumption attributes. The introduction of the 1499 yuan Moutai is expected to stimulate consumer demand and help clear excess inventory in the market [4][34]. - The current valuation of the liquor sector is low, with a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 18.1X as of March 13, which is below the median of 25.2X and the average of 27.1X since 2012, indicating a strong downside support [41][50]. Summary by Sections Liquor Cycle Status - The liquor industry is at a turning point, with expectations of a recovery starting in 2026. The PPI has shown a narrowing decline since July 2025, indicating a potential bottoming out of the price cycle [4][19]. - Historical data shows that the liquor cycle is closely related to real estate investment trends, with previous downturns linked to economic slowdowns and policy changes [10][22]. Moutai Reform - Moutai is restructuring its product offerings into a pyramid model, focusing on different consumer segments. The marketing strategy includes a mix of self-sale, distribution, and consignment to enhance market reach [25][27]. - The pricing strategy for Moutai's products is being adjusted to reflect market conditions, with the 1499 yuan price point aimed at enhancing consumer access and clearing inventory [28][32]. Investment Value of Liquor - The liquor sector is characterized by low valuations and low expectations, with a significant portion of investment funds currently underweight in the sector. The dividend yield for high-end liquor companies ranges from 3.5% to 5.5%, providing support for stock prices [45][50]. - The report highlights three main investment lines: high-end liquor with stable demand, mid-range liquor benefiting from national expansion, and local market-focused liquor brands [50].

Core Insights - The report emphasizes that the white liquor sector is entering a demand off-season, suggesting a focus on undervalued stocks with strong alpha potential [1] - It highlights the gradual recovery of domestic demand, with expectations for a mild rebound in sales due to supportive government policies [2] - The report recommends monitoring the price trends of Feitian Moutai as a key indicator of industry health, with expectations for price declines to stabilize [3] Industry Overview - Post-Spring Festival, consumer demand for white liquor has decreased, leading to performance pressure in Q1, with anticipated year-on-year declines in earnings [2] - The report notes that major liquor companies are focusing on maintaining market order during the off-season, with some firms adjusting their delivery schedules to manage inventory and pricing health [2] - The government has reiterated the importance of expanding domestic demand, which is expected to support the sector's recovery [2] Company-Specific Insights Guizhou Moutai - Guizhou Moutai's reform efforts are showing positive results, with sales performance exceeding market expectations, particularly among younger consumers [2] - The company is expected to maintain stable performance in Q1 2026, with a focus on cultivating independent consumption scenarios through non-standard product sales [2] - The report projects Moutai's revenue for 2026 to be approximately 1758.8 billion yuan, with a net profit of around 870.9 billion yuan, reflecting a slight year-on-year increase [19] Wuliangye - Wuliangye is expected to see a decline in revenue and net profit in 2026, with projections of 758.2 billion yuan in revenue and 256.6 billion yuan in net profit, reflecting a decrease of 15% and 19.4% respectively [20] - The company has improved its channel management during the Spring Festival, which has helped restore distributor confidence [20] - The report indicates that Wuliangye's price remains stable at around 810 yuan, with actual trading prices between 780-790 yuan [20] Luzhou Laojiao - Luzhou Laojiao's 38-degree Guojiao is performing steadily, with expectations for revenue and net profit to remain flat in 2026 at approximately 272.2 billion yuan and 113.4 billion yuan respectively [22] - The company plans to enhance its digital tools for management, aiming to maximize efficiency in its operations [22] - The report notes that the performance of lower-end products is improving, particularly in key consumption areas [22] Shanxi Fenjiu - Shanxi Fenjiu is projected to achieve revenue growth in the single digits for 2025 and 2026, with a focus on maintaining market order and enhancing channel profitability [24] - The company is expected to increase its operational pace post-Spring Festival, with a strategy to boost sales without overstocking [24] - The report highlights that Fenjiu's pricing for its Qinghua 20 product is expected to stabilize around 360-370 yuan [24]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the evolving trends in the Chinese alcohol industry, particularly focusing on the beer sector and the shift towards quality over quantity in production and consumption [2][3][5] - The beer industry is expected to see production, revenue, and profit growth of 5%, 4%, and 18% respectively by 2025, indicating a transition towards value-driven growth [3] - Key events influencing the beer industry include the IPO of Jin Xing Beer, the bankruptcy of Tai Shan Beer, and the acquisition of craft beer by Mi Xue Group, which reflect significant market dynamics [3] Group 2 - The consumption trend during the Spring Festival shows a preference for lower-alcohol and health-oriented beverages, with a notable increase in sales of low-alcohol and health wines driven by younger consumers [4] - The rise of "生肖酒" (Zodiac wine) during the festive season integrates traditional cultural elements, enhancing its collectible value [4] - The industry is moving towards rational consumption, emphasizing personalized experiences and cultural resonance, as evidenced by the growing popularity of self-mixed drinks and online sales channels [4] Group 3 - The "15th Five-Year Plan" for the brewing industry emphasizes high-quality development through technological innovation, cultural empowerment, and green development, aiming to reshape the industry [5] - The plan includes the establishment of billion-level wine production areas and a modern industrial system, focusing on raw material security and technological upgrades [5] - The document outlines seven key tasks and 21 initiatives to enhance the industry's structure and competitiveness, supporting rural revitalization and cultural heritage [5] Group 4 - The Chinese wine market is undergoing structural changes, with a 26.85% decline in imported wine volume but a 21.79% increase in average price, indicating a shift towards premium products [6] - The Ningxia region accounts for nearly 50% of domestic wine production, highlighting the rise of local wineries and the growing preference for boutique wines [6] - The market is expected to focus on white wines and affordable premium products, with brand operations and channel integration becoming crucial for success [6] Group 5 - The yellow wine industry is experiencing a transformation with leading companies raising prices and expanding their market reach, driven by innovative marketing strategies [8] - The industry is seeing a significant increase in sales of products priced between 50-100 yuan, with a notable performance in the young market segment [8] - Future trends include a focus on high-end products, online and offline integration, and the emergence of unique production areas [8] Group 6 - Moutai is leveraging its iMoutai platform to attract younger consumers and expand its market presence, with a notable increase in foot traffic to physical stores [12] - The brand is undergoing a market-oriented transformation, focusing on consumer-driven growth and breaking traditional consumption barriers [12] - Moutai's strategic adjustments have led to significant sales increases in various regions, showcasing its resilience in a challenging market [12] Group 7 - The wine market is facing challenges such as declining consumer willingness and intense competition, yet Moutai Wine is achieving growth through systematic changes in channels and branding [13] - The brand has optimized its product structure and increased brand investment, leading to improved market recognition and sales performance [13] - Moutai Wine's proactive strategies during market downturns demonstrate its commitment to creating opportunities and driving growth [13] Group 8 - The Chinese liquor industry is undergoing profound changes, with brands like Marcy leveraging cultural elements to enhance product appeal and drive sales during the Spring Festival [16] - Marcy's success is attributed to its long-term market presence and innovative marketing strategies that resonate with consumers [16] - The brand's ability to adapt and thrive in a competitive landscape highlights the importance of strategic positioning and consumer engagement [16]

证券代码：603198 证券简称：迎驾贡酒 公告编号：2026-001 (二) 离任对公司的影响 根据《中华人民共和国公司法》《公司章程》等相关规定，上述辞职报告自 送达董事会之日起生效。秦海先生的离任不会对公司的日常生产经营产生不利影 响，已按照公司相关规定做好交接工作，不存在应当履行而未履行的承诺事项。 秦海先生在担任公司总经理期间勤勉尽责、恪尽职守，为公司的发展做出了 重要贡献。公司董事会对秦海先生任职期内的工作给予高度认可，对其所做出的 承诺 安徽迎驾贡酒股份有限公司 关于公司高级管理人员离任暨聘任高级管理人员的 公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述 或者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 一、高级管理人员离任情况 安徽迎驾贡酒股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）董事会于近日收到公司总 经理秦海先生递交的辞职报告。秦海先生因工作调整原因，申请辞任公司总经理 职务。离任后，秦海先生仍将在公司担任董事、薪酬与考核委员会委员、战略委 员会委员职务。 | 姓名 | 离任职务 | 离任时间 | 原定任期 | 离任原因 | 是否继续在 上市公司及 | 具体职 ...

Investment Rating - The industry rating is maintained as "Positive" [5] Core Insights - The food and beverage sector experienced a decline of 2.48% during the week from March 2 to March 6, 2026, compared to a drop of 0.93% in the Shanghai Composite Index and 1.07% in the CSI 300 Index [1][16] - The report highlights the performance of various segments, with meat products (+1.10%) and beer (+0.91%) showing positive growth, while categories like snacks (-3.88%) and health products (-4.01%) faced significant declines [1][16] - The report emphasizes the importance of upcoming events, such as the sugar and wine fair, which may influence market sentiment and consumer behavior in the high-end liquor segment [2][10] Summary by Sections Weekly Market Review - The food and beverage sector's performance was notably weak, with the white liquor segment declining by 3.32% [1][10] - Key stocks in the liquor sector, such as Shanxi Fenjiu and Wuliangye, saw declines of 0.3% and 1.6%, respectively [2][10] Sector Insights - In the liquor segment, the report suggests that the high-end liquor prices remain stable during the off-season, with a focus on potential catalysts such as the upcoming sugar and wine fair [2][10] - The report recommends stocks with strong alpha characteristics in the consumer goods sector, particularly in the meat, beer, and seasoning categories, highlighting companies like New Dairy, Chongqing Beer, and Shuanghui [11][12] Investment Recommendations - For the liquor sector, the report recommends Guizhou Moutai and suggests monitoring brands with strong beta attributes like Luzhou Laojiao and Yingjia Gongjiu [3][10] - In the consumer goods sector, the report highlights the potential for growth in snack foods and functional beverages, recommending companies such as Weilong and Yuyuan Group [3][11] - The dairy segment is expected to benefit from favorable supply and demand dynamics, with recommendations for New Dairy and Yili Group [3][14] Valuation Metrics - As of March 6, 2026, the dynamic price-to-earnings ratio for the food and beverage sector is 20.37, with specific segments like liquor at 17.91 and dairy at 23.15 [23][24]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The Chinese beer industry is expected to see production, revenue, and profit growth of 5%, 4%, and 18% respectively in 2025, indicating a shift towards value enhancement [2] - The trend towards low-alcohol beverages is gaining momentum, with consumers preferring to drink less but of higher quality, leading to a significant increase in low-alcohol and health-oriented drinks [2] - The liquor industry is transitioning from a "quantity era" to a "quality era," focusing on high-quality development and technological innovation [5] - The Chinese wine market is undergoing structural changes, with a 26.85% decrease in imported wine volume but a 21.79% increase in average price, indicating a preference for premium and specialty wines [5] - The yellow wine industry is experiencing a nationalization and quality upgrade, with major brands increasing prices and expanding their market presence [6] Industry Environment - The report identifies four major trends in the beer industry for 2026: expansion of non-on-premise channels, growth of non-alcoholic beer, differentiation in craft beer competition, and deepening of local brand premiumization [2] - The liquor industry is seeing a shift towards rational consumption, emphasizing personalized experiences and cultural resonance [2] - The "2026-2030 Guidelines for Quality Improvement and Upgrading of the Liquor Industry" aim to foster high-quality development through technological innovation and cultural empowerment [5] - The Chinese wine market is focusing on white wine, affordable premium options, and diverse consumption scenarios, with brand operation and channel integration becoming key [5] Top Brand Dynamics - Gujing Gongjiu launched a marketing campaign centered around the theme of "going home" during the Spring Festival, enhancing its image as the "national year wine" [9] - Moutai is attracting younger consumers and women through its iMoutai platform, significantly increasing foot traffic in offline stores [9] - Moutai Wine is undergoing systematic changes to achieve growth despite market challenges, optimizing its product structure and increasing brand investment [10] - The yellow wine industry is moving towards nationalization and quality enhancement, with major brands like Guyue Longshan and Kweichow Moutai leading the charge [6][10] - Xifeng Wine is focusing on marketing reform and product upgrades to achieve breakthroughs in the high-end market [13] - Jian Nan Chun is leveraging cultural empowerment and emotional resonance in its marketing strategy to transition from promotional discounts to value enhancement [19]

Summary of the Conference Call on the Baijiu Industry Industry Overview - The conference call focused on the Baijiu industry, particularly the performance of major brands such as Moutai, Wuliangye, Guojiao, Yanghe, and Fenjiu during the 2026 Spring Festival period compared to 2025. Key Points and Arguments Sales and Payment Progress - Payment collection for Baijiu brands is generally lagging, with Moutai's payment nearing delivery, Wuliangye at approximately 40%, and Guojiao, Yanghe, and others at only 20%-30% compared to the same period in 2025 [1][2] - Moutai's sales growth is in the single digits, while Wuliangye saw a 3%-4% increase in January-February. Guojiao's sales dropped nearly 25%, and Yanghe and others saw declines of about 15% [1][5] Inventory Levels - Inventory levels are high across many brands, with Guojiao, Yanghe, and others having 2-3 months of channel inventory. Moutai has about 10 days, and Wuliangye around 25 days, indicating ongoing pressure to reduce inventory [1][3][4] Pricing Trends - Pricing for Moutai is expected to range between 1,450-1,650 RMB, with Wuliangye maintaining above 780 RMB. Guojiao is around 850 RMB, while Water Well's 8th product has dropped to 267 RMB due to inventory pressure [1][7][8] Regional Performance - In the Anhui market, Gujing and Yingjia have payment collections around 45%, while Kuozi has less than 30%. Gujing's sales have declined by 10%-15%, and Kuozi's by nearly 40%, indicating intensified regional competition and shrinking profit margins [1] Contract Goals for 2026 - Wuliangye has signed contracts at 1.1 times last year's actual volume, Yanghe is flat, and Kuozi has reduced its target by over 20%. Moutai's premium products are now handled by select distributors, with a focus on the "i Moutai" sales channel [1][25][30] Consumer Behavior and Market Dynamics - Moutai's non-standard products have seen a decline in sales due to inventory changes, with current non-standard inventory covering about one month. The sales structure is lighter, indicating a healthier inventory state [6] - The premium segment for Moutai has improved, but channel motivation is still affected by historical losses. The supply method for premium products has changed, focusing on select distributors rather than broad distribution [7] Profitability and Margin Analysis - Guojiao's current pricing is around 840-850 RMB, with a significant drop in sales attributed to decreased liquidity in the wholesale market during the Spring Festival [11][12] - The profitability of Guojiao's distributors is not as favorable compared to Wuliangye, with Guojiao's distributors likely not making significant profits [13] Product-Specific Insights - The performance of specific products like Fenjiu's Qinghua series has seen a decline of about 10%, while other products have shown mixed results [5][15] - The pricing for Water Well's 8th product has significantly decreased, reflecting market pressures and inventory issues [18][19] Future Outlook - The overall sentiment in the Baijiu market indicates cautious optimism, with brands adjusting their strategies to cope with inventory pressures and changing consumer preferences. The focus will be on maintaining profitability while navigating competitive challenges [1][25][30] Additional Important Insights - The call highlighted the importance of regional dynamics, with varying performance across different markets, and the need for brands to adapt their strategies accordingly [10][28] - The impact of promotional activities and consumer incentives remains a critical factor in driving sales, particularly in a competitive landscape [9][36] This summary encapsulates the key discussions and insights from the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the current state and future outlook of the Baijiu industry.