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泸州老窖(000568):25年定调稳中求进 分红规划提振信心

Core Viewpoint - The company achieved a revenue of 31.2 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 3.2%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 13.47 billion yuan, up 1.7% year-on-year. However, Q4 2024 saw a revenue decline of 16.9% and a net profit decrease of 29.9% [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company reported a revenue of 9.35 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.8%, and a net profit of 4.59 billion yuan, up 0.4% year-on-year [1] - The company's gross margin decreased by 0.8 percentage points to 87.5% in 2024, with a further decline of 1.9 percentage points to 86.5% in Q1 2025 [2] - The net profit margin for 2024 decreased by 0.7 percentage points to 43.3%, while in Q1 2025, it fell by 0.5 percentage points to 49.3% [2] Group 2: Product and Market Dynamics - The company’s mid-to-high-end liquor segment generated a revenue of 27.59 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 2.8%, with sales volume up 14.4% but average price per ton down 10.2% [1] - The company is focusing on consumer cultivation and channel development to maintain market growth, with the Guojiao brand remaining in the 20 billion yuan category [1] - Traditional and emerging channels achieved revenues of 29.57 billion yuan (+3.2%) and 1.48 billion yuan (+4.2%) respectively in 2024 [1] Group 3: Dividend and Future Outlook - The company announced a cash dividend of 45.92 yuan per 10 shares (including tax), reflecting a commitment to shareholder returns [1] - The management has set a dividend payout ratio of no less than 65%/70%/75% for the years 2024-2026, with a minimum total dividend of 8.5 billion yuan (including tax) each year [3] - The company aims for steady revenue growth in 2025, with a target EPS of 9.39 yuan, 10.31 yuan, and 11.31 yuan for 2025-2027, corresponding to PE ratios of 13x, 12x, and 11x respectively [3]