三全食品(002216)：短期经营承压 静待后续改善

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a decline in revenue and net profit for 2024, with a slight improvement in Q1 2025, while facing challenges in its core frozen noodle and rice products business due to market pressures and competition [1][2]. Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved revenue of 6.63 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 6%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 540 million yuan, down 27.6% [1]. - For Q4 2024, revenue was 1.51 billion yuan, a decline of 8.1%, with a net profit of 150 million yuan, down 24.9% [1]. - In Q1 2025, revenue reached 2.22 billion yuan, a slight decrease of 1.6%, and net profit was 210 million yuan, down 9.2% [1]. Product and Market Analysis - The frozen noodle and rice product segment generated revenue of 5.6 billion yuan in 2024, a decline of 4%, with traditional products like dumplings and rice balls contributing 3.47 billion yuan, down 5.8% [2]. - The company faced challenges in the frozen food sector, with frozen prepared foods and refrigerated short-shelf-life products generating revenues of 870 million yuan and 90 million yuan, respectively, down 18.8% and 3.3% [2]. - The retail and innovation market saw revenues of 5.19 billion yuan, a decrease of 6.9%, while the restaurant market grew by 1.1% to 1.45 billion yuan [2]. Profitability and Cost Structure - The gross margin for 2024 and Q1 2025 was 24.2% and 25.3%, respectively, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 1.6 percentage points and 1.3 percentage points [3]. - The sales expense ratio increased by 1.4 percentage points in 2024 to 12.9%, primarily due to increased spending on e-commerce channels [3]. - The net profit margin for 2024 and Q1 2025 was 8.2% and 9.4%, down 2.4 percentage points and 0.8 percentage points year-on-year [3]. Future Outlook - The company plans to enhance profit contribution from traditional rice and noodle products while increasing the introduction of healthier and personalized new products [4]. - There is a focus on reducing losses in direct sales and expanding the distribution network, particularly in the restaurant sector and online channels [4]. - The earnings per share (EPS) forecast for 2025-2027 is projected at 0.64 yuan, 0.67 yuan, and 0.70 yuan, with corresponding dynamic price-to-earnings ratios of 19x, 18x, and 17x [4].