Core Viewpoint - Concerns about further economic deterioration have led U.S. private credit investors to sell assets at significant discounts, with some transactions occurring at half the asset's face value [1] Group 1: Discount Trading and Investor Behavior - Private credit market investors are selling fund shares at notable discounts, starting from 10% and dropping to as low as 50% [2] - The current sell-off is characterized as a proactive risk-hedging behavior by investors rather than a result of forced liquidations or severe liquidity crises [2] - There has been no significant deterioration in credit quality observed so far, but concerns about expanding discounts may arise as economic conditions worsen [2] Group 2: Credit Quality Concerns - The U.S. private credit market has rapidly expanded to a size of $1.6 trillion, raising concerns about asset quality during economic downturns due to a relatively lax regulatory environment [2] - Issues with "loose underwriting" in private credit loans could lead to high single-digit default rates for high-yield debt and potentially double-digit default rates for private credit [2] Group 3: Market Conditions and Strategic Positioning - The current situation is viewed as more severe than during the COVID-19 pandemic, primarily due to higher inflation pressures that could amplify economic shocks [4] - The potential economic downturn is compared to the bursting of the internet bubble, with expectations of a similarly severe impact [4] - Oak Tree Capital is cautiously positioning itself in the credit market, maintaining liquidity to capitalize on larger investment opportunities as they arise [4]
“半价“甩卖!美国私募信贷投资者加速抛售资产
Hua Er Jie Jian Wen·2025-05-03 07:28