Core Viewpoint - The real estate market has entered an unprecedented adjustment period since the end of 2021, with significant price declines and increasing inventory levels, prompting various government policies aimed at stabilizing the market and ensuring economic stability [1][3][10]. Market Conditions - By March 2023, average housing prices had dropped by 30% from historical highs, with some areas experiencing declines of up to 60% [1]. - The total unsold residential property area reached 6.7 trillion square meters by the end of 2023, projected to rise to 7.5 trillion by the end of 2024 and 7.8 trillion by March 2025, indicating severe inventory pressure [3]. Government Policies - Various measures have been implemented to stimulate the market, including lifting purchase restrictions in most cities, increasing public housing loan limits, and reducing mortgage interest rates from over 5% to around 3% [3]. - Tax reductions on deed tax and value-added tax were also introduced to alleviate the burden on homebuyers [3]. Economic Implications - The real estate sector is a pillar of the economy, influencing over 50 related industries, including construction materials and furniture, and its stagnation could severely impact local GDP growth [7]. - The real estate industry employs over 13 million people directly, with millions more in related sectors, highlighting the potential employment crisis if the market does not recover [7][8]. Fiscal Dependency - Land transfer fees have become a crucial part of local government finances, accounting for 50% of local fiscal revenue in 2024, with real estate-related taxes making up 35% [10]. - A significant portion of public service funding relies on these revenues, and a continued downturn in the real estate market could lead to reduced public services and increased financial strain on local governments [10]. Long-term Goals - The overarching aim of the government’s intervention in the real estate market is not just to influence short-term price fluctuations but to ensure social stability and facilitate a transition towards a more sustainable economic model focused on high-end manufacturing and technology [10][11].
救楼市的必要性,吴晓波深度解析,拯救内需才能实现复苏
Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-05-03 08:04