Core Viewpoint - The new tea beverage industry is experiencing significant activity with multiple leading companies going public, particularly highlighting the impressive performance of Gu Ming, which has seen its stock price surge since its listing [1][2]. Company Overview - Gu Ming is a rapidly growing Chinese beverage company, holding a 17.7% market share as the largest mass-market fresh tea beverage brand in China by GMV in 2023 [2]. - The company operates a light-asset franchise model, with approximately 99.9% of its GMV coming from franchise stores, managing only 7 directly operated stores [2][6]. - As of the end of 2024, Gu Ming has opened 9,914 stores across 17 provinces, primarily in East and South China, and has not yet expanded internationally [2]. Business Strategy - Gu Ming employs a "regional encryption" strategy, expanding into neighboring provinces only after surpassing 500 stores in a single province, with eight provinces contributing 83% of GMV [2]. - The company focuses on lower-tier cities, with 51% of its stores located in tier-three cities and below, and 41% of its stores in rural areas, the highest among the top five mass-market fresh tea brands in China [3][6]. Financial Performance - Gu Ming's revenue has shown steady growth, with figures of 4.38 billion, 5.56 billion, 7.68 billion, and 8.79 billion yuan from 2021 to 2024, although the growth rate has slowed [6]. - The company's gross margin was 30.6% in 2024, down 0.7 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to increased support for franchisee profitability [7]. - Adjusted net profit for 2024 grew by 5.7% to 1.542 billion yuan, supported by the franchise model, improved supply chain efficiency, and effective cost control [8]. Competitive Landscape - The new tea beverage industry is facing intense competition, with market growth rates expected to decline from 44.3% in 2023 to 12.4% by 2025, and over 20,000 store closures anticipated in 2024 [9]. - Gu Ming acknowledges fierce competition in product development, quality, pricing, and customer experience, with challenges in differentiating products amid a homogenized market [9][10]. Future Outlook - Gu Ming plans to enhance its marketing efforts and increase capital investment in response to intensified competition, with a sales expense ratio rising to 5.5% in 2024 [10]. - The company aims to focus on dine-in services and introduce student discount cards to boost customer retention, while also expanding its product offerings to include coffee and baked goods [10]. - Maintaining long-term competitive advantages and addressing product differentiation will be critical challenges for Gu Ming moving forward [11].
股价连创新高背后：古茗(01364)地域扩张的边界在哪里？