(20%) (10%) 0% 10% 20% 30% 24/7/22 24/10/2 24/12/13 25/2/23 25/5/6 25/7/17 ◼ 子行业评级 | 酒类 | 无评级 | | --- | --- | | 饮料 | 无评级 | | 食品 | 无评级 | | ◼ 推荐公司及评级 | | | 贵州茅台 | 买入 | | 泸州老窖 | 买入 | | 山西汾酒 | 增持 | | 今世缘 | 增持 | | 东鹏饮料 | 买入 | | 有友食品 | 买入 | | 立高食品 | 买入 | | 古茗 | 增持 | | 农夫山泉 | 买入 | | 达势股份 | 买入 | | 安琪酵母 | 买入 | 2025 年 07 月 21 日 行业周报 看好/维持 食品饮料 食品饮料 白酒情绪边际修复，关注中报确定性个股——食品饮料周报 （2025.7.14-2025.7.20） ◼ 走势比较 相关研究报告 <<业绩窗口期估值切换，关注回调及 低估值个股机会——食品饮料周报 （2025.7.7-2025.7.11）>>--2025- 07-14 <<东鹏饮料：旺季冰柜费投增加，Q2 收入延续高增>>--2025-07-1 ...

Group 1 - The new consumption concept stocks in the Hong Kong market experienced a decline, with companies such as Shangmei Holdings (02145.HK) and Pop Mart (09992.HK) both dropping nearly 3.5% [1] - Other companies like Mixue Group (02097.HK) and Guming (01364.HK) saw declines exceeding 3%, while Nayuki's Tea (02150.HK) fell by 2.5% [1] - Additional declines were noted for Cha Baidao (02555.HK), NIO (09866.HK), Laopu Gold (06181.HK), and Xiaomi Group (01810.HK), all of which dropped over 1.5% [1]

智通财经APP获悉，港股今日冲高回落，三大指数午后集体转跌。截止收盘，恒生指数跌0.29%或72.36 点，报24517.76点，全日成交额为2589.51亿港元；恒生国企指数跌0.18%，报8861.39点；恒生科技指数 跌0.24%，报5418.4点。 申万宏源表示，持续看好港股以及A股市场的投资机会，在未来全球金融秩序重构的过程中，中国香港 将扮演重要角色，港股优质资产繁荣度预计不断提升，成为本土在岸资金+全球新秩序下的核心资本市 场。 蓝筹股表现 安踏体育(02020)领涨蓝筹。截至收盘，涨2.28%，报91.85港元，成交额13.2亿港元，贡献恒指4.55点。 安踏体育公布，2025年二季度，安踏品牌、FILA品牌流水分别同比增长低单位数、中单位数，所有其 他品牌流水同比增长50-55%。上半年， 安踏、FILA、其他品牌零售金额同比分别取得中单位数、高单 位数、60-65%的正增长。 其他蓝筹股方面，快手-W(01024)涨2.13%，报69.6港元，贡献恒指6.9点；携程集团-S(09961 )涨1.59%， 报498.2港元，贡献恒指3.36点；申洲国际(02313)跌2.75%，报56.6港 ...

Group 1 - The new consumption concept stocks in the Hong Kong market are experiencing a volatile pullback [1] - Pop Mart (09992.HK) has seen a decline of over 5% [1] - Gu Ming (01364.HK) has dropped nearly 3% [1] Group 2 - Wei Long (09985.HK) has decreased by more than 2% [1] - Mao Ge Ping (01318.HK) and Miniso (09896.HK) both fell by over 1.5% [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a neutral investment rating for the food and beverage industry, indicating that the overall return is expected to be within -5% to 5% relative to the CSI 300 index over the next six months [24]. Core Views - The food and beverage sector is experiencing a valuation shift during the earnings window, with a focus on opportunities in undervalued stocks and potential rebounds following recent corrections [4][11]. - The SW food and beverage index increased by 0.8%, ranking 26th among 31 sub-industries, with notable gains in the liquor, health products, and beer sectors, while soft drinks and dairy products saw declines [4][11]. - The report highlights the rebound in the liquor sector, particularly the SW liquor index, which rose by 1.41%, suggesting a recovery from previous overly pessimistic expectations [16][20]. Summary by Sections Liquor Sector - The liquor sector is currently in a bottoming phase, with a focus on the upcoming demand during the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day [20]. - Key brands such as Guizhou Moutai and Luzhou Laojiao are recommended for investment due to their stable pricing and market performance [20][23]. Consumer Goods Sector - The consumer goods sector is facing a correction due to downward adjustments in earnings expectations for leading companies, particularly in soft drinks and snacks [21]. - Innovative product launches in the snack segment are highlighted, with companies like Youyou Foods and Weidong introducing new items to capture market share [21][22]. - The report emphasizes the growth potential in ready-to-drink beverages and the increasing competition in the tea drink market, with a positive outlook for brands like Mixue and Gu Ming [21][22]. Recommended Companies - The report recommends several companies for investment, including: - Luzhou Laojiao: Buy rating with expected EPS growth [23] - Shanxi Fenjiu: Hold rating with stable performance [23] - Dongpeng Beverage: Buy rating with significant revenue growth forecast [22][23] - Youyou Foods: Buy rating with strong market recovery potential [23] - Nongfu Spring: Buy rating with expected market share recovery [23]

华泰证券首次覆盖古茗予买入评级 目标价35.27港元 金十数据7月14日讯，华泰证券发表报告，首次覆盖古茗(01364.HK)予买入评级，目标价35.27港元，对 应预测2026年30倍市盈率，公司经营韧性较优，从区域走向全国、咖啡新品类成长性充裕，给予成长性 溢价。报告指古茗以区域效率最大化为核心，构建起高密度门店网络、下沉供应链与利益与共的加盟体 系，优质产品力叠加高密度带来的便捷性有效提升品牌覆购，使得单店能够在较低人口基数覆盖下实现 较优盈利。展望未来，有望覆用核心市场规模优势从区域走向全国，跨品类拓展增厚同店可期，看好古 茗兼具质量与速度的成长势能。该行预测公司2025至2027年净利润分别为21.02亿、25.37亿及30.52亿元 人民币，对应每股盈利0.88元、1.07元及1.28元人民币。 ...

港股新消费概念日内走低，老铺黄金(06181.HK)跌超10%，泡泡玛特(09992.HK)、古茗(01364.HK)、沪 上阿姨(02589.HK)、蜜雪集团(02097.HK)等个股跟跌。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The tea beverage industry experienced a significant surge in sales over the weekend of July 5-6, driven by increased subsidies from delivery platforms, leading to record-breaking order volumes and revenue for many brands [1][12][21]. Group 1: Sales Performance - A tea beverage brand reported total sales exceeding 63 million yuan over the weekend, with individual store daily sales reaching a record of 54,000 yuan [12][14]. - Several brands achieved over 1 million orders within the same two-day period, indicating a substantial increase in consumer demand [12][17]. - The average sales volume for a tea shop increased by approximately 30% to 50% compared to the previous month, with some stores experiencing a staggering 499% increase in sales [8][20]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The surge in online orders has led to a noticeable decline in in-store customer traffic, as consumers prefer the convenience and lower prices offered by delivery platforms [6][11]. - Major delivery platforms reported a total of over 200 million orders in a single day, reflecting the heightened activity in the food and beverage sector [21][23]. - The competitive landscape intensified with platforms like Taobao launching a substantial subsidy program, resulting in a 190% increase in orders for restaurant brands [21]. Group 3: Stock Market Reaction - Following the sales boom, stock prices for several publicly listed tea companies rose sharply on July 7, although this upward trend was not sustained in the following days [4][21]. - Specific stock price increases included a 5.74% rise for Mixue Ice City and an 11.04% increase for Tea Baidao, although many stocks later experienced declines [24]. Group 4: Operational Challenges - The rapid increase in order volume has put significant pressure on staff and operational capacity, with some stores needing to increase staff numbers to manage the workload [8][11]. - Despite the revenue growth, the reliance on discounts and promotions raises concerns about long-term sustainability and brand loyalty within the industry [25].

Group 1 - The report highlights the deep analysis of Luzhou Laojiao (000568.SZ), emphasizing a consumer-centric approach and digital empowerment of the supply chain to enhance competitive barriers [9][10] - The company is expected to face a 21% underperformance compared to the liquor sector from H2 2023 to H1 2025, with a projected PE decline of 45% due to internal and external cyclical pressures [9][11] - Luzhou Laojiao is actively reducing channel burdens and advancing digital transformation, which is seen as a strategic advantage in a weak industry environment [9][10] Group 2 - The semiconductor industry is experiencing a significant demand increase driven by AI applications, with TI expanding production to meet future needs and storage prices continuing to rise [19][21] - The global semiconductor sales in May 2025 reached $58.98 billion, marking a 19.8% year-on-year growth, with China's semiconductor sales at $17.08 billion, up 13% [21][22] - The report recommends focusing on semiconductor manufacturing companies and AI-related enterprises, highlighting the importance of domestic AI development in the semiconductor supply chain [21][27] Group 3 - The medical and biological sector is witnessing a strong performance, with a focus on innovative drug development, particularly in radioactive ligand therapy, which is expected to grow rapidly [29][30] - The report identifies XTR005 and XTR008 as key products in the pipeline, with XTR005 being the first PET diagnostic radioactive ligand approved in China [30][31] - The overall medical sector is projected to continue its upward trend, with a notable increase in clinical data competitiveness for domestic innovative drugs [31]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Outperform" rating to the company [4][6]. Core Insights - The company is the leading brand in the mid-range ready-to-drink tea segment, achieving a store count of 9,914 by the end of 2024, making it the largest in its category [1][16]. - The mid-range ready-to-drink tea market is projected to reach approximately RMB 161.5 billion in 2025, with a CAGR of 20.8% from 2024 to 2028, indicating strong growth potential [2]. - The company has a robust growth strategy focusing on store expansion and improving same-store sales, with expectations of net store additions of 2,100, 2,350, and 2,450 in 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [3][4]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Founded in 2010, the company has expanded rapidly across China, with a significant presence in 17 provinces and a focus on franchise operations [1][16]. - The company went public on February 12, 2025, marking a significant milestone as the first Zhejiang tea company to list [1][16]. Market Analysis - The mid-range tea segment is characterized by intense competition, with the company holding the largest market share as of 2023, followed closely by other brands [2][14]. - The report emphasizes the importance of supply chain management and product innovation to maintain competitive advantage in a crowded market [2][15]. Growth Drivers - The company’s growth is driven by a dual strategy of expanding its store network and enhancing the average sales per store, with a projected average GMV of RMB 2.34 million per mature franchise store [3][4]. - The company aims to reach a store count of 27,000 by 2030 under a neutral scenario, with revenue and profit projections of RMB 29.3 billion and RMB 5.3 billion respectively [3][4]. Financial Projections - Revenue is expected to grow from RMB 87.9 billion in 2024 to RMB 113.3 billion in 2025, reflecting a growth rate of 28.9% [5][36]. - Adjusted net profit is projected to increase from RMB 15.4 billion in 2024 to RMB 20.1 billion in 2025, representing a growth of 30.1% [5][36]. Investment Recommendation - The report suggests a target PE ratio of 32-35x for 2025, with a market capitalization range of RMB 64.2 billion to RMB 70.2 billion, indicating a potential upside from the current share price [4][6].