该行指，古茗管理层重申其2030年达到30,000家门店的长期目标，根据该行的估计，这将支撑约20%的年 均门店增长。古茗目前已进入20个省份，其中三大核心省份(浙江、江西、福建)约占总门店数的40%(相较于中 国总人口的11%)，显示其在非核心地区的扩张潜力。 瑞银将古茗2025至2027年的每股盈利预测上调6%至11%，主要受惠于收入预测上调6%至12%，分别达到115 亿元、141亿元和172亿元人民币，料得益于：1)在内地三、四线城市及更多地区的开店速度快于预期;2)料 2025年同店销售同比增长6%，受到咖啡饮品推出的推动。 瑞银发布研报称，古茗(01364)今年以来同店销售增长约10%，开店计划已达1,500至2,000家，均优于该行 先前的预估。该行将基于现金流折现(DCF)估值方式，将古茗目标价从19.28港元上调至31.15港元，此相当于 预测2025年及2026年市盈率分别为34倍和27倍，2025年动态市盈率为1.4倍，低于新消费同业2025、2026年平 均预测市盈率43倍和35倍及2025年平均动态市盈率1.9倍。该行维持对古茗"买入"评级。 该行认为古茗超出预期的表现得益于公司产品 ...

证券研究报告 食品饮料 | 饮料乳品 港股|首次覆盖报告 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 06 月 05 日 证券分析师 丁一 SAC：S1350524040003 dingyi@huayuanstock.com 联系人 市场表现： | 基本数据 | 2025 | 年 | 06 | 月 04 | 日 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 收盘价（港元） | | | | 29.50 | | | 一年内最高/最低（港 | | | | 30.00/8.22 | | | 元） | | | | | | | 总市值（百万港元） | | | | 70,156.48 | | | 流通市值（百万港元） | | | | 70,156.48 | | | 资产负债率（%） | | | | 69.28 | | | 资料来源：聚源数据 | | | | | | 古茗(01364.HK) 投资评级： 买入（首次） ——现制茶饮头部品牌，产品及供应链驱动公司高效运营 投资要点： | 盈利预测与估值（人民币） | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- ...

2025 年 6 月 4 日 全品类货架型品牌，"结硬寨"践行长期主义 ——古茗（1364.HK）投资价值分析报告 要点 平价现制茶饮龙头，多重优势领跑行业。古茗深耕现制茶饮十余年，从浙江走 向全国。截至 24 年底，公司在全国 17 个省份覆盖超过 200 个城市，共有 9914 家门店，主要分布于二线、三线及更低线城市。古茗是中国最大的大众现制茶饮 店品牌，亦是全价格带下中国第二大现制茶饮店品牌。2023 年古茗平均季度复 购率高达 53%，门店经营利润率约 20%，均领先行业。 行业下沉市场空间大，供应链打造核心竞争力。根据灼识咨询数据，按 GMV 统 计，2024 年中国现制饮品行业拥有超过 6000 亿元的市场规模，其中现制茶饮 行业规模最大（超过 3000 亿元），现制咖啡行业增速较快（24-28 年 CAGR 预 计为 18.5%）。按城市线级划分来看，低线市场具有更大的增长潜力，预计三 线及以下城市 24-28 年 CAGR 均超过 20%。按价格带划分来看，大众价格带产 品增长势头最好，预计 24-28 年 CAGR 为 20.8%。从企业各项能力看，供应链 为最核心的竞争力。 供应链优势和 ...

Financial Performance - In the fiscal year 2024, Guming Holdings Limited reported revenue of RMB 8.79 billion, representing a year-on-year growth of 14.5%[8] - The net profit for 2024 increased by 36.2% to RMB 1.49 billion, up from RMB 1.10 billion in 2023[8] - The gross profit margin for 2024 was 30.6%, slightly down from 31.3% in 2023[13] - The adjusted profit margin (non-IFRS measure) for 2024 was 17.5%, down from 19.0% in 2023[13] - Revenue increased by 14.5% from RMB 7.6757 billion for the year ended December 31, 2023, to RMB 8.7914 billion for the year ended December 31, 2024[44] - The company's merchandise sales revenue rose by 13.6% from RMB 5.7783 billion in 2023 to RMB 6.5627 billion in 2024, driven by the expansion of the store network and increased demand[44] - Equipment sales revenue increased by 26.8% from RMB 366.4 million in 2023 to RMB 464.8 million in 2024, primarily due to increased sales of coffee machines[44] - Net profit grew by 36.2% from RMB 1.0964 billion for the year ending December 31, 2023, to RMB 1.4932 billion for the year ending December 31, 2024[55] - Adjusted profit increased by 5.7% from RMB 1.459 billion for the year ending December 31, 2023, to RMB 1.542 billion for the year ending December 31, 2024, with a decrease in adjusted profit margin from 19.0% to 17.5%[59] - Adjusted EBITDA rose from RMB 1.894 billion for the year ending December 31, 2023, to RMB 1.932 billion for the year ending December 31, 2024[61] Store Network Expansion - The company expanded its store network to a total of 9,914 locations, with a net increase of 913 stores, reflecting a growth rate of 10.1%[8] - As of December 31, 2024, the company's store network expanded to 9,914 stores, a 10.1% increase from 9,001 stores as of December 31, 2023[18] - The number of stores in second-tier and below cities accounted for 80% of the total store count as of December 31, 2024, up from 79% in 2023[22] - The company experienced a net increase of 254 franchisees, ending 2024 with 4,868 franchisees compared to 4,614 in 2023[26] - The company closed 674 stores in 2024, a significant increase from 265 closures in 2023, due to market slowdown and intensified competition[23] - The company aims to continue expanding its store network and enhancing operational efficiency in the upcoming years[11] - The company plans to continue expanding its store network in 17 provinces and is exploring opportunities in overseas markets[36] - The company has adopted a unique regional encryption strategy for store expansion, focusing resources on building a dense network of stores in targeted provinces[82] Operational Efficiency and Costs - The company aims to enhance operational efficiency and business performance in existing stores while slowing down the opening of new stores[23] - The average single-store GMV decreased to RMB 2,360.7 thousand in 2024 from RMB 2,466.4 thousand in 2023[24] - The company's sales cost increased by 15.8% from RMB 5.2723 billion for the year ending December 31, 2023, to RMB 6.1039 billion for the year ending December 31, 2024[46] - Selling and distribution expenses surged by 42.4% from RMB 336.6 million for the year ending December 31, 2023, to RMB 479.4 million for the year ending December 31, 2024[49] - Administrative expenses rose by 10.1% from RMB 282.8 million for the year ending December 31, 2023, to RMB 311.4 million for the year ending December 31, 2024[50] - R&D expenses increased by 17.0% from RMB 198.7 million for the year ending December 31, 2023, to RMB 232.6 million for the year ending December 31, 2024[51] Assets and Liabilities - The total assets of the company as of December 31, 2024, amounted to RMB 6.87 billion, an increase from RMB 5.15 billion in 2023[15] - The total liabilities increased to RMB 4.76 billion in 2024 from RMB 4.54 billion in 2023[15] - The equity total reached RMB 2.11 billion, a significant improvement from RMB 615.5 million in 2023[15] - Inventory rose by 11.7% from RMB 881.1 million as of December 31, 2023, to RMB 984.2 million as of December 31, 2024, aligning with revenue growth[65] - Trade payables increased from RMB 601.3 million to RMB 697.9 million, attributed to higher procurement amounts, with turnover days rising from 34 to 39 days[69] - The capital debt ratio improved to 23.0% as of December 31, 2024, down from 26.8% as of December 31, 2023[73] Market and Competition - The company is facing significant competition in the ready-to-drink tea market, which may impact market share and profitability if not effectively managed[84] - The overall industry slowdown and intensified competition have led to a deceleration in new store openings and a decline in operational metrics for some stores[83] - The company anticipates stable growth in China's economy and consumer spending, with the ready-to-drink tea market expected to continue expanding in the medium to long term[84] Franchisee Management - The company provides competitive pricing for quality raw materials and covers most warehousing and logistics costs to optimize franchisee profitability[95] - Franchisee management is crucial, as the success and quality of stores largely depend on franchisees' ability to operate according to company standards[96] - The company has established a franchisee committee, the first in the fresh tea beverage industry, to foster close relationships and provide feedback from franchisees[95] - The company actively monitors franchisee operations, including service quality and compliance with quality control and food safety standards, to maintain brand reputation[94] - The company has held an annual national franchisee conference for 11 consecutive years to promote transparent communication and collaboration[95] Product Development and Quality Control - Guming launched over 100 new products in 2024, enhancing its product competitiveness[9] - The introduction of fresh fruit-based tea drinks aims to align with consumer trends towards fresh ingredients, alongside low-sugar options for health-conscious consumers[86] - The company plans to expand its ready-to-drink coffee category to capture more cross-selling opportunities and diversify consumer demand[87] - Strict quality control systems are implemented to mitigate product safety and quality risks across all operational stages, from sourcing to delivery[90] - The effectiveness of the quality control system is critical and depends on various factors, including compliance by franchisees and suppliers[88] Employee Management - As of December 31, 2024, the company employed 2,726 full-time employees, an increase from 2,437 employees as of December 31, 2023[160] - Employee benefit expenses, including salaries and pension contributions, are approximately RMB 700.1 million for the year ending December 31, 2024[160] - The company provides competitive salaries and benefits to attract and retain suitable personnel, with performance bonuses as part of the incentive mechanism[161] - The company encourages career development opportunities for employees, offering training and professional development programs[161] Shareholder Information - The total issued shares of the company as of the last practicable date is 2,378,185,860 shares[166] - Major shareholders collectively hold 1,730,697,672 shares, representing approximately 72.77% of the total issued shares of 2,378,185,860[173] - The company has established a post-IPO share plan approved by shareholders on January 27, 2025, aimed at aligning the interests of selected participants with the company's and shareholders' overall interests[161] Risk Management - The group faced significant risks and uncertainties in the business environment, actively conducting risk assessments to mitigate potential impacts on financial performance[116] - The company has no significant contingent liabilities as of December 31, 2024[75]

研究报告 Research Report 18 Apr 2025 古茗 Guming Holdings (1364 HK) 首次覆盖：细水长流，打造 4A 级全国现制饮品品牌 Steady and Sustainable, Crafting a National 4A Freshly-made Beverage Brand: Initiation [Table_yemei1] 观点聚焦 Investment Focus [Table_Info] 首次覆盖优于大市 Initiate with OUTPERFORM 评级 优于大市 OUTPERFORM 现价 HK$17.70 目标价 HK$24.20 HTI ESG 4.4-4.8-5.0 E-S-G: 0-5, (Please refer to the Appendix for ESG comments) 市值 HK$42.09bn / US$5.42bn 日交易额 (3 个月均值) US$14.62mn 发行股票数目 2,378mn 自由流通股 (%) 20% 1 年股价最高最低值 HK$18.96-HK$9.16 注：现价 HK$17.70 为 2025 ...

上 市 公 司 食品饮料 2025 年 04 月 09 日 古茗 (01364) ——大众现制茶饮第一，最大规模冷链赋能 报告原因：首次覆盖 买入（首次评级） | 市场数据： | 2025 年 04 月 08 日 | | --- | --- | | 收盘价（港币） | 16.06 | | 恒生中国企业指数 | 7430.62 | | 52 周最高/最低（港币） | 20.40/8.22 | | H 股市值（亿港币） | 381.94 | | 流通 H 股（百万股） | 2,378.19 | | 汇率（人民币/港币） | 1.0787 | 一年内股价与基准指数对比走势： -10% 190% HSCEI 古茗 资料来源：Bloomberg 证券分析师 贾梦迪 A0230520010002 jiamd@swsresearch.com 联系人 贾梦迪 (8621)23297818× jiamd@swsresearch.com 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 财务数据及盈利预测 | | 2023 | 2024 | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | - ...

事件 3 月 28 日，公司公告 24 年业绩，24 年收入 87.9 亿元/+14.5%， 归母净利 14.8 亿元/+36.9%，经调整净利 15.4 亿元/+5.7%，符合 预期。 点评 24 全年门店增速 10%，空白可拓市场广阔。截至 24 年末，公司门 店总数 9914 家/+10.1%，分城市线看，一线+4%/新一线+3%/二线 +6%/三线+14%/四线及以下+18%，下沉市场开店更快。24 全年新开 1587 家、关闭 674 家、净增 913 家，公司在全国仍有 17 个省份未 建立布局，未来空白可拓市场广阔。 行业价格战之下单店表现有韧性，Q4 单店 GMV 增速小幅改善。24 年公司总 GMV 224 亿元/+16.6%，量价拆分，出杯量 13.3 亿杯 /+12.1%，杯单价 16.9 元/+3.9%。单店平均 GMV 236 万元/-4.3% （出杯量-8.0%、杯单价+3.9%），其中 Q1~3 同比-4.4%、Q4 同比-4%， Q4 降幅收窄，推测主要受益于行业价格战趋缓、杯单价提升。 24 年竞争加剧情况下盈利能力韧性优于同业，期待后续改善。主 要成本费用看 ，24 年毛利 ...

Financial Performance - For the fiscal year ending December 31, 2024, the company reported total revenue of RMB 8,791,355 thousand, representing a 14.5% increase from RMB 7,675,665 thousand in 2023[5]. - Gross profit for the same period was RMB 2,687,485 thousand, up 11.8% from RMB 2,403,331 thousand in the previous year[5]. - The net profit for the year was RMB 1,493,218 thousand, reflecting a significant increase of 36.2% compared to RMB 1,096,354 thousand in 2023[5]. - Profit attributable to equity holders of the parent company was RMB 1,478,507 thousand, a 36.9% rise from RMB 1,079,628 thousand in the prior year[5]. - Adjusted profit (non-IFRS) was RMB 1,542,385 thousand, which is a 5.7% increase from RMB 1,458,990 thousand in 2023[5]. - Basic earnings per share increased to RMB 0.71, representing a 22.4% growth from RMB 0.58 in the previous year[5]. - Diluted earnings per share also rose to RMB 0.71, a 36.5% increase from RMB 0.52 in 2023[5]. - Operating profit for the year was RMB 1,833,297 thousand, compared to RMB 1,744,535 thousand in the previous year[7]. - The total comprehensive income for the year amounted to 1,498,012 thousand RMB, up from 1,076,563 thousand RMB, indicating a growth of approximately 39.2%[9]. Assets and Liabilities - Non-current assets totaled 2,014,990 thousand RMB, an increase from 1,144,257 thousand RMB in the previous year, showing a growth of about 76.1%[10]. - Current assets increased to 4,859,645 thousand RMB from 4,008,672 thousand RMB, representing a growth of approximately 21.2%[10]. - The company's cash and bank balances stood at 1,935,264 thousand RMB, down from 2,427,979 thousand RMB, indicating a decrease of about 20.3%[10]. - Trade payables rose to 697,891 thousand RMB from 601,272 thousand RMB, reflecting an increase of approximately 16.0%[10]. - The total liabilities increased to 4,452,288 thousand RMB from 4,362,203 thousand RMB, showing a growth of about 2.1%[10]. - Non-current liabilities increased to RMB 310,329 thousand in 2024 from RMB 175,220 thousand in 2023, representing a growth of 77.1%[11]. - Total equity reached RMB 2,112,018 thousand in 2024, up from RMB 615,506 thousand in 2023, marking a significant increase of 243.5%[11]. - The company's total assets increased significantly, with net assets growing to RMB 2,066,166 thousand in 2024 from RMB 582,865 thousand in 2023, reflecting a growth of 253.5%[11]. Revenue Sources - Revenue from customer contracts for 2024 reached RMB 8,791,355 thousand, a 14.6% increase from RMB 7,675,665 thousand in 2023[22]. - Sales of goods and equipment contributed RMB 7,027,475 thousand in 2024, up from RMB 6,144,711 thousand in 2023, representing an increase of 14.4%[22]. - Franchise management services revenue increased to RMB 1,749,633 thousand in 2024 from 1,518,646 thousand in 2023, reflecting a growth of 15.2%[22]. - Direct store sales rose to RMB 14,247 thousand in 2024, compared to RMB 12,308 thousand in 2023, marking an increase of 15.7%[22]. - The majority of revenue, 96.6%, came from franchise stores for the year ended December 31, 2024, compared to 97.1% in 2023[70]. Expenses and Costs - The cost of services and sold inventory for 2024 is RMB 6,103,870,000, compared to RMB 5,272,334,000 in 2023, reflecting a rise of 15.7%[29]. - Employee benefits expenses rose to RMB 700,055,000 in 2024, up from RMB 624,520,000 in 2023, an increase of 12.1%[29]. - Operating expenses, including sales and distribution expenses, rose by 42.4% to RMB 479.4 million due to increased advertising and promotional activities[76]. - Research and development expenses increased by 17.0% from RMB 198.7 million in 2023 to RMB 232.6 million in 2024, primarily due to rising personnel costs[78]. Taxation - The total income tax expense for 2024 was RMB 311,091 thousand, a decrease of 10.8% from RMB 348,733 thousand in 2023[34]. - The impact of tax incentives for 2024 was a reduction of RMB 151,059 thousand, compared to RMB 114,133 thousand in 2023[34]. - Certain subsidiaries in China are eligible for a reduced corporate income tax rate of 15% as "high-tech enterprises"[32]. Market and Expansion - The company plans to continue expanding its market presence and investing in new technologies to drive future growth[9]. - The company plans to expand its store network in 17 provinces, with 17 additional provinces remaining untapped for future growth opportunities[65]. - The store network covers over 200 cities in China, with a significant presence in lower-tier cities, where 80% of the stores are located[49]. - The company aims to strengthen its technology investments to improve operational efficiency and enhance collaboration with franchisees[67]. Corporate Governance - The audit committee consists of two independent non-executive directors and one non-executive director, responsible for reviewing the company's financial data[118]. - Ernst & Young conducted a comparison of the group's consolidated financial statements and confirmed compliance with applicable accounting principles[119]. - The board of directors will regularly review and strengthen corporate governance practices to ensure compliance with the corporate governance code[122]. Shareholder Information - The company declared a dividend of RMB 1.74 billion to shareholders as of December 31, 2024, based on retained earnings and share premium[115]. - The company plans to distribute a special dividend of no less than RMB 2 billion by December 2025, based on retained earnings from subsidiaries[116]. - The company has not engaged in any buybacks or sales of its listed securities during the reporting period[117].

证券研究报告 | 公司深度 | 饮料乳品 结硬寨打呆仗，扩店空间广阔 ——古茗深度报告 投资要点 ❑ 基本情况：古茗是全价位段第二、中价段最大的现制茶饮品牌 古茗产品价格集中在 10-18 元，门店网络扩张和 GMV 不断上升驱动公司营 收持续增长。截至 2024 年 9 月底，古茗的门店网络已覆盖 9778 家门店。2024 年 1-9 月，公司收入 64.4 亿元，同增 15.6%，经调整利润 11.5 亿元，同增 10.0%，同期毛利率 30.5%，经调整净利率 17.8%。 ❑ 行业分析：中价市场和二线以下城市是赛懂扩容的核心驱动 中国现制饮品市场中规模最大的是现制茶饮市场，其中规模最大、发展势头 最为迅猛的是中价现制茶饮店（10-20 元价格带）。激烈竞争下，古茗在增速最 快的二线及以下城市（预计 2024-2028 年 CAGR 为 22.5%）布局优势明显。根据 灼识咨询，按 GMV 计算，古茗在二线及以下城市的市场份额约为 22%，门店数 量占比高达 78.8%，远超其他品牌。 ❑ 核心竞争力：结硬寨打呆仗，地域加密高质量扩张 （1）不同之处？卡位价格带和城市线级双维度 β 最快的细分市场。 ...