证券研究报告 | 首次覆盖报告 gszqdatemark 2026 03 23 年 月 日 古茗（01364.HK） 区域加密+自建冷链，正向飞轮保障成长 | 风险提示：饮品行业竞争加剧；现制茶饮行业竞争加剧；食品安全风险。 | | --- | | 财务指标 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入(百万人民币) | 7,676 | 8,791 | 12,808 | 15,974 | 19,223 | | 增长率 yoy（%） | 38.1 | 14.5 | 45.7 | 24.7 | 20.3 | | 经调整净利润(百万人民币) | 1,459 | 1,542 | 2,412 | 2,960 | 3,639 | | 增长率 yoy（%） | 85.1 | 5.7 | 56.4 | 22.7 | 22.9 | | EPS 最新摊薄（元/股） | 0.61 | 0.65 | 1.01 | 1.24 | 1.53 | | 净资产收益率（%） | 250.3 | 74.6 | 59.4 ...

古茗（01364.HK） 区域加密+自建冷链，正向飞轮保障成长 概况：大众现制茶饮行业龙头，深耕下沉市场。1）公司以加盟模式，围绕 核心区域集中加密实现门店快速扩张，已超过万家门店，是中价位现制茶 饮龙头。遵循地域加密策略，在目标省份策略性地调配资源实现高密度门 店网络，再借助在具有关键规模的省份所积累的优势经验进入邻近省份。 当前已在 8 个省份建立超过关键规模（即超过 500 家门店）的门店网络。 截至 2025H1，公司的门店网络覆盖中国超过 200 个各线级城市，共 11179 家门店，为中价位茶饮门店数量第一的品牌。2）门店主要集中在下沉市 场。截至 2025H1，国内门店中一线/新一线/二线/三线/四线及以下城市门 店数各占比 3%/16%/29%/27%/25%。 行业：供需共振，发展空间广阔。1）需求端：中国具备深厚的饮茶文化， 且购买力及消费群不断扩大。2019-2023 年我国现制茶饮市场、茶叶市场 及即饮茶市场规模均稳定增长；其中现制茶饮的饮用人数由 2018 年的 2.248 亿增加至 2023 年 3.2 亿，CAGR 7.3%，预计 2028 年达 4.827 亿， 年均饮用量从 ...

古茗由创始人王云安于 2010 年在台州温岭创立首家门店。其扩张战略与其他 品牌存在差异，初期便聚焦于乡镇等下沉市场，采取区域加密的模式，而非全 国性稀疏布点。产品定位为高性价比，以十几元的价格提供接近二十多元品质 的产品，并保持较快的上新频率。为支撑该战略，公司于 2017 年左右开启自 建冷链配送模式并建设生产基地。一个仓储冷链中心通常可供应超过 500 家门 店，公司也将 500 家门店作为区域达到关键规模的定义标准。 在发展历程方面， 2017 年，公司门店约 1,000 家，主要分布在浙江、福建、江西等省份。2018 年进入规模化扩张阶段，2019 年新开店已超 1,000 家。至 2019 年底，门店 总数达到 2000 家。2020 年，公司开发了小程序以发展会员体系，当年新开 2000 多家门店，总数超过 4,000 家。2022 年，小程序会员突破 5,000 万。 2023 年，门店总数突破 9,000 家。2024 年，公司开始试点推广咖啡机，至 年底门店数达到 9,914 家。2025 年 2 月，公司于港交所上市。2025 年，得 益于外卖竞争、咖啡品类的全面铺开以及炖奶系列等成功新 ...

Core Viewpoint - The new tea beverage industry is shifting from rapid expansion to a focus on optimizing single-store efficiency and exploring new growth avenues, with coffee becoming a key area of competition among brands [1][2][3]. Group 1: Company Developments - Mixue Ice City is actively expanding its product offerings, including the introduction of freshly brewed coffee machines in select stores and new cake products in flagship locations [1]. - The company is also developing a themed amusement park in Zhengzhou and has established a wholly-owned subsidiary for beer production [1]. Group 2: Industry Trends - Coffee has emerged as a critical battleground for tea brands, with most major tea companies, except for Bawang Chaji, now offering coffee products, often alongside baked goods [2]. - The introduction of coffee is seen as a way to capture different consumer demands throughout the day, as coffee and tea have different peak sales times [2]. - The industry consensus is that the focus has shifted from rapid expansion to enhancing single-store performance and diversifying product offerings to adapt to a more competitive market [3]. Group 3: Challenges and Risks - Despite the push for diversification, some attempts have failed, such as Tea Baidao's independent coffee brand, which closed shortly after opening, highlighting the challenges of brand positioning and operational efficiency [4].

Summary of Conference Call Records Company Overview - The company discussed is Gu Ming, a beverage company focusing on tea products and market expansion strategies in China, particularly in the northern regions. Key Points Industry and Company Insights - Gu Ming's R&D team consists of 120 members, significantly larger than the industry average of 20 to 50 members, ensuring high consistency between lab formulations and mass production flavors [1] - The supply chain strategy prioritizes quality over speed, with self-built factories customizing tea bases and sourcing fruits based on optimal ripeness [1] - The company has introduced a new store design, the sixth generation store, featuring a warm wooden color scheme and larger storefronts to enhance its brand presence in lower-tier markets [1] Market Strategy and Adjustments - In the northern market, Gu Ming has launched warm fruit teas and adjusted the default sweetness level to 5-7 points to cater to local preferences, effectively addressing winter sales challenges [1][4] - The payback period for franchisees in the northern market is approximately 2 years, with annual revenues per store ranging from 200,000 to 300,000 yuan, supported by low rent and labor costs [1][5] Competitive Landscape - Despite facing competition from local brands like A Shui Da Bei Cha, Gu Ming is expected to gradually penetrate the northern market within 2-3 years due to its product strength [1][5] - Research indicates that concerns about consumer differences between northern and southern markets may be overstated, as there is a consistent demand for fresh, high-quality beverages [5][6] Customer Retention and Brand Strength - Gu Ming maintains a quarterly repurchase rate of over 50% and a monthly repurchase rate of over 30%, outperforming competitors by 5 to 10 percentage points [2] - The high repurchase rate is attributed to strict quality control and a rapid product launch strategy that stimulates consumer interest [2] Brand Upgrades and Marketing - The company has actively upgraded its brand image, including the introduction of new store designs and a new spokesperson for marketing campaigns, which positively impacts brand recognition and consumer engagement [3] Long-term Growth Potential - Gu Ming's strategy of gradually expanding into northern markets through a "rural encircling urban" approach is expected to enhance market share over time [5][6] - The company plans to leverage increased repurchase rates and brand upgrades to establish a stronger presence in provinces adjacent to the south, such as Henan and Anhui [6]

Guming Holdings Limited 香港交易及結算所有限公司及香港聯合交易所有限公司對本公告的內容概不 負 責，對 其 準 確 性 或 完 整 性 亦 不 發 表 任 何 聲 明，並 明 確 表 示，概 不 對 因 本 公 告 全部或任何部分內容而產生或因倚賴該等內容而引致的任何損失承擔任何責 任。 古茗控股有限公司 （於 開 曼 群 島 註 冊 成 立 的 有 限 公 司） （股份代號：01364） 董事會會議召開日期 古茗控股有限公司（連 同 其 附 屬 公 司，統 稱「本集團」）董事會（「董事會」）兹通告 謹定於2026年3月25日（星 期 三）舉 行 董 事 會 會 議，其 中 議 程 包 括 考 慮 及 通 過 本 集 團截至2025年12月31日 止 年 度 之 全 年 業 績 及 其 刊 發，及 考 慮 建 議 宣 派 末 期 股 息 （如 有）。 承董事會命 古茗控股有限公司 董事會主席 王雲安先生 香 港，2026年3月9日 於 本 公 告 日 期，董 事 會 包 括(i)執 行 董 事 王 雲 安 先 生、戚 俠 先 生、阮 修 迪 先 生、 金 雅 玉 女 士 及 蔡 雲 江 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the overseas pharmaceutical industry, indicating a positive outlook for the sector's performance compared to the overall market [5][10]. Core Insights - The report highlights significant developments in the pharmaceutical sector, including a licensing agreement between China National Pharmaceutical Group (Sinopharm) and Sanofi for the JAK/ROCK inhibitor, and the approval of a new indication for Innovent Biologics' BTK inhibitor in China [1][2]. - Performance forecasts for companies such as Crystal Holding and He Yu indicate substantial revenue growth, with Crystal Holding expected to achieve at least 780 million RMB in revenue for 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of approximately 193% [6][7]. Summary by Sections 1. Overseas Pharmaceuticals - Sinopharm and Sanofi have entered into an exclusive licensing agreement for the global development, production, and commercialization of the JAK/ROCK inhibitor, with potential milestone payments totaling up to 1.395 billion USD [2][7]. - Innovent Biologics' BTK inhibitor, Jiepalit (Pirtobrutinib), has received NMPA approval for a new indication in adult patients with chronic lymphocytic leukemia (CLL) who have previously undergone systemic treatment [2][7]. - Roche's BTK inhibitor Fenebrutinib has successfully met primary endpoints in a Phase III trial for relapsing multiple sclerosis, potentially becoming the first effective oral treatment for both relapsing and primary progressive forms of the disease [3][8]. 2. Performance Updates - Crystal Holding anticipates a revenue of no less than 780 million RMB in 2025, with a net profit of at least 100 million RMB, marking a turnaround from losses [6][7]. - He Yu expects to achieve 612 million RMB in revenue for 2025, reflecting a 21% year-on-year growth, with net profit projected at 55 million RMB, a 95% increase [6][7]. 3. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on innovative pharmaceutical companies with active commercialization and business development opportunities, including companies like BeiGene, Innovent Biologics, and others [10]. - It also highlights the importance of monitoring clinical progress in key pipelines for companies transitioning towards innovation [10].

Core Viewpoint - The report from China Galaxy Securities indicates that during the 2026 Spring Festival, both the number of domestic travelers and total consumption reached historical highs, driven by an increase in holiday duration [1] Group 1: Spring Festival Data - During the 9-day Spring Festival holiday, domestic travel reached 596 million trips, a year-on-year increase of 19%, with an average of 66 million trips per day, up 5.7% [1] - Total domestic travel expenditure amounted to 803.5 billion yuan, also a 19% year-on-year increase, with an average daily spending of 89.3 billion yuan, up 5.5% [1] - Per capita spending remained stable at 1,348 yuan, while daily per capita spending decreased by 11.3% to 150 yuan, attributed to factors such as weather conditions and consumer behavior adjustments due to the longer holiday [1] Group 2: Post-Festival Travel Trends - The first week after the Spring Festival showed stronger travel data compared to the pre-festival period, indicating an upward trend in service consumption during the off-peak season [2] - Average growth rates for cross-regional travel, rail, and civil aviation during the first week post-festival were 5.0%, 12.5%, and 9.2% respectively, compared to 3.0%, 2.8%, and 4.4% in the 13 days before the festival [2] - Domestic economy class ticket prices increased significantly post-festival, averaging an 8.3% growth compared to a 2.0% increase before the festival [2] Group 3: Policy and Demand-Supply Dynamics - The government has emphasized expanding domestic demand and enhancing service consumption as key priorities over the past two years, focusing on optimizing systems and releasing quality supply to drive consumption [3] - After over two years of supply-demand rebalancing, both consumers and businesses have adapted to a rational consumption environment, with a focus on providing cost-effective and emotionally valuable products [3] - High-end consumption remains unaffected by policy changes, with the appreciation of the yuan and geopolitical shifts driving high-end consumption towards the Greater China region [3] Group 4: Related Companies - Recommended companies include China Duty Free Group, ShouLai Hotel, Jin Jiang Hotels, Gu Ming, and others [4] - Companies to watch include Mijue Group, Haidilao, Yum China, and others [4]

FF301 股份發行人及根據《上市規則》第十九B章上市的香港預託證券發行人的證券變動月報表 截至月份: 2026年2月28日 狀態: 新提交 致：香港交易及結算所有限公司 公司名稱: 古茗控股有限公司（於開曼群島註冊成立的有限公司） 呈交日期: 2026年3月4日 I. 法定/註冊股本變動 | 1. 股份分類 | 普通股 | 股份類別 | 不適用 | | 於香港聯交所上市 (註1) | | 是 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 證券代號 (如上市) | 01364 | 說明 | | | | | | | | | | 法定/註冊股份數目 | | | 面值 | | 法定/註冊股本 | | | 上月底結存 | | | 5,000,000,000 | USD | 0.00001 | USD | | 50,000 | | 增加 / 減少 (-) | | | 0 | | | USD | | 0 | | 本月底結存 | | | 5,000,000,000 | USD | 0.00001 | USD | | 50,000 | 本月底法定/ ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" recommendation for the consumer services industry, indicating a positive outlook for investment opportunities in this sector [1]. Core Insights - The consumer services sector is entering a rapid development phase, driven by policy support and changing consumer preferences. The shift from material goods to service consumption is becoming a significant trend, with service consumption projected to grow faster than overall retail sales [6][7]. - The report emphasizes that 2026 will be a pivotal year for service consumption policies, marking a systemic shift in focus from "investment in goods" to "investment in people" [7][50]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The consumer services market in China is robust, with a total market value of approximately 5,609.11 billion yuan and a circulation market value of about 5,058.96 billion yuan [3]. - The sector is characterized by a high growth potential, with service consumption accounting for 46.10% of household spending, significantly lower than in developed countries like the US and Japan [45]. Market Performance - The absolute performance of the consumer services sector shows a decline of 4.1% over the past month, but a growth of 10.8% over the past year, indicating a recovery trend [4]. Policy Impact - Since 2025, numerous policies have been introduced to stimulate service consumption, including the implementation of spring and autumn breaks in schools to smooth out tourism demand [54][55]. - The government has also been actively distributing consumption vouchers, which have shown a high leverage effect in boosting consumer spending [54][55]. Investment Themes - The report identifies four main investment themes: 1. Operational turning points in hotels, duty-free, and gaming sectors [8]. 2. New supply opportunities in scenic areas with state-owned background and asset injection expectations [8]. 3. Value reassessment in online travel agencies (OTAs) benefiting from high market demand [8]. 4. Structural optimization in the restaurant sector as chain rates increase and market conditions improve [8]. Business Models - The report categorizes successful business models in the consumer services sector into three types: "super chain," "super single," and "super platform," each with distinct characteristics and growth strategies [21][22].